It’s Midseason for a Couple of Great American Pastimes

With this year’s presidential election only a week or so after the World Series, the race for the White House is paralleling the baseball season. So, with last week’s All-Star Game marking the traditional midpoint of the season, the presidential campaign must be half over too.

Let’s imagine a baseball writer summing up the first half of the presidential season. . . .

As expected, Bob Dole and Bill Clinton are headed for the Quadrennial Fall Classic, but they’ve taken wildly different routes to get there.

Dole was tested early within his own division, forced to beat back challenges from the likes of Steve Forbes and Pat Buchanan. A proven winner in the minor leagues but 0-2 in previous presidential primaries, Dole was almost knocked out of the race in February and March. He appeared wooden and ineffective in his early outings, muffing the simplest of plays and showing little ability to match the firepower of either of his main adversaries.

Dole’s performances against lightly regarded opponents in a weak division left many insiders wondering whether he could survive the spring.

Survive he did, though, and once the campaign headed to warmer climes (better suited to his age, perhaps?), Dole rebounded nicely in April and eventually won going away, raising his presidential primary record to 1-2. This November’s appearance in the Classic will be his second, but his first at the top of the ticket. He and Gerald Ford finished a close second in 1976 to the Carter-Mondale ticket.

Clinton, meanwhile, remains the same unpredictable force he’s always been. When he’s on, he’s unbeatable. But like many newcomers to the national stage, he can be erratic.

A surprise winner in his first presidential season in 1992, Clinton finds himself in the odd position of being favored to win it all in November, perhaps even resoundingly, and yet quite capable of losing.

Those who like Clinton’s chances to repeat note that Bob Dole is a weaker candidate than George Bush was in 1992 and that the nation’s economy has recovered rapidly under Clinton. Conventional wisdom has it that only a monumental Clinton collapse could blow an advantage like that over the final half of the campaign.

That’s what makes the second half of the season tantalizing to fans. Normally, it would be the underdog who needed to make the surprise move that would snatch victory from defeat. Dole clearly is the underdog at the halfway point, but no one expects him to do anything dramatic.

It is Clinton, without a doubt, who remains the most volatile factor in the race. Indeed, Dole’s best weapon may be the unpredictability in the Clinton camp.

In short, the talk around the leagues is that the election is Clinton’s to lose. What has kept people interested is that many people believe that if anyone could do just that, it is Clinton.

Observers, when looking for possible cracks in the Clinton armor, point to such issues as public trust or an international crisis, and argue that voters might find more reassurance in a seasoned campaigner like Dole.

Recent events, though, have slowed Dole’s progress. First, he unwisely snapped at TV’s Katie Couric when she questioned him about tobacco addiction. Then, he dismissed his no-show at the NAACP’s annual convention, suggesting he was “set up” with a hollow invitation.

Clinton, for the most part, has brushed aside nagging injuries from the Whitewater investigation and the mystery FBI files that were discovered in the White House.

In that regard, he continues his early season hot streak. Threatened challenges from within his own division never materialized, and, as a result, Clinton was able to rest for much of the spring. He seems to thrive on spirited campaigning, and observers expect his energy for the battle to increase as November nears.

Dole, on the other hand, never had a moment’s peace for the better part of three months. For a candidate who is already 72, a grueling summer-long second-half campaign may be the last thing he needs.

While the two combatants will see little of each other until the debates, many people think those joint TV appearances will put Clinton over the top. Dole has tripped up repeatedly over the years when speaking extemporaneously, while there’s nothing Clinton loves more than speaking off the cuff. Debate experts say they wouldn’t be surprised to see Clinton batter Dole in the exchanges and undercut Dole’s presumed strength--that of maturity and stability under fire.

There’s no sure bet yet, but veteran scribes say Dole better be ahead by the time the first debate rolls around.

If not, they say, Clinton may wrap things up well in advance of Election Day.

Dana Parsons’ column appears Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Readers may reach Parsons by writing to him at the Times Orange County Edition, 1375 Sunflower Ave., Costa Mesa, CA 92626, or calling (714) 966-7821.