The California Touch Still a Political Puzzle

“Picture Bob Dole in shades,” says political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe. That’s shades as in sunglasses, and by extension, he’s running along the beach, rafting a wild river or cruising the Malibu coast in a convertible.

If Bob Dole is going to succeed in California, should he--can he--make himself over into a California sort of guy?

“Nah,” said Jeffe, of the Claremont Graduate School. Not Bob Dole’s style. “Bill Clinton? Yeah.”

Clinton may be from Arkansas, but he is the sort of candidate whose appeal probably will connect with an important segment of California voters, Jeffe said. He jogs and golfs. Mixes with the Hollywood crowd. Looks natural in sunglasses. One of the boys.

Dole? He’s Kansas laconic and Washington shrewd. Dusty wheat fields. War hero. Political wheeler-dealer. Dour. A bit of a loner.

For decades, California has been something of a mystical “Big Orange” for politicians and campaign managers seeking ways to win the favor of that segment of its voters who have a reputation for being fair-weather, fickle and independent ballot-casters.

Some candidates seem to click with these folks, some don’t. The politics and personalities of those who do often have little in common, but each can lay claim to a certain panache that many Californians respond to, state political experts conclude.

The Kennedys had it. Walter Mondale and Michael S. Dukakis did not. Gary Hart had it, somewhat. So did Ronald Reagan--in his own way. George Bush certainly did not. Even Richard Nixon did not, and he was a Californian.

But having the California “it” does not assure victory in the state, which now brings a whopping 54 electoral votes. After all, Nixon edged John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential contest. Nixon’s California roots helped him overcome Kennedy’s flair and mediagenic style. Still, other factors being equal, this connection with California’s trendier types can definitely give a candidate a leg up, the experts said.

This X-factor seems to be at work mostly in presidential contests, affecting nominees from other states who are not familiar to California voters.

Dole, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, has vowed to battle Clinton for California’s 54 electoral votes. But so far, his biggest concession to California cool is to doff his dark suit coat on a sunny day.

Maybe you can take the candidate out of Kansas--and the Beltway--but you can’t make him a beach boy, Jeffe and other political experts said.

“I’m not sure you change a person” as part of the quest to fuse with Californians, said Republican consultant Ron Smith. “The worst thing Dole could do is go to Disneyland and wear a funny hat.”

And Dole’s staid image doesn’t bother his California campaign manager, Ken Khachigian of Orange County.

Forget Rodeo Drive, Venice Beach and roller-blades, Khachigian said. Most Californians are like people everywhere else: basically middle-class, working people who live in modest places like Santa Ana or Ontario.

“Bill Clinton’s not going for the movie stars and roller-bladers,” Khachigian added. “He’s going for the middle-class Californian every chance he gets. They know what the demographics are.”

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Wave after wave of presidential hopefuls have come to California intent on sweeping state voters off their feet, efforts that at times can be painful to watch. In the early 1970s, New York Mayor John Lindsay should have had the California “it”--he was dashing, handsome, energetic--but he learned quickly that Los Angeles was not Gotham. On his first trip to the city in a presidential trial run, Lindsay did what you would do in New York: He went to the garment district.

Back then, few knew that Los Angeles even had a garment district. When his handlers finally found it for Lindsay, the mayor discovered many of the people there not only couldn’t vote, campaign pitches in English did little good.

Definitions of the California style are highly subjective and they vary. But Jeffe and others say there is a mix of personal qualities that appeal to an important segment of Golden State voters in a way that is unique.

They mention youth, physical vigor, an optimistic outlook, a willingness to take risks and a tolerance of diverse opinions and lifestyles.

“It does have to do with a certain kind of philosophy of life,” Jeffe said. “Maybe it’s the climate.”

“It’s indefinable,” said Democratic political consultant Garry South, who plotted strategy for politicians in the East and Midwest before coming to California. “But you can see it. You can smell it.”

Pollster Mervin Field, who has been analyzing state politics for half a century, said that the California-style candidate tends to appeal to young people, women, members of minority groups and high-tech entrepreneurs.

Field loosely defined this political quality by what it is not: “It’s not the old way of doing business or the old way of doing politics or the old way of doing anything.”

Dan Schnur, a former aide to Gov. Pete Wilson and now a political analyst, said the notion of a California-style candidate is partly a creation of Eastern political “experts,” and that it describes only a slice of the state--a Democrat-dominated slice.

“They think of Hollywood, of West Los Angeles and San Francisco,” Schnur said. “For a Republican who’s putting together support in the Central Valley, the Inland Empire, Orange County and San Diego, it’s not nearly that important,” Schnur said.

Clinton strategists have declared that winning California is vital. He has done more than any other president to curry favor in the state since taking office, visiting it 24 times, appointing special White House advisors to handle California problems and showering federal largess on the state.

“Clinton plays this state like a violin,” South said. “He has such an incredible level of detail about what this state’s all about, he sounds like someone running for county supervisor.”

A major part of Dole’s message in California so far has been that he is not George Bush.

In 1992, the then-president concluded early on that he could not carry California and that campaign resources would be better spent elsewhere. Bush had barely any campaign in California at all.

California Republicans bitterly blamed the lack of a Bush presence for the losses they suffered down the rest of the ticket in 1992.

From the moment it was clear that Dole would be the 1996 nominee, state party leaders were pressuring him to take a pledge: to battle Clinton for California even though it might cost Dole a huge chunk of his $62-million general election budget.

In Dole’s most recent California visits, his main message appeared to be that he was going to keep coming back to the state and would not concede it to Clinton.

The message seemed aimed at California Republican leaders, not to Dole’s audiences.

GOP experts acknowledged that Dole has yet to develop a comprehensive California campaign, but one said that just being in the state helps him.

The message should evolve by the fall, Schnur said. “In the meantime, simply being out here and making the case in broad terms is a good enough start,” he said.

Other Republicans hope so.

Times staff writer Maria LaGanga contributed to this story.