Take the High Ground on Affirmative Action

Mayor Richard Riordan’s announcement that he will oppose Proposition 209 (the so-called California civil rights initiative) clears away a significant roadblock to his reelection. In February, the City Council voted 12-0 to oppose the initiative and to urge the mayor to join in opposition. For months, Riordan had been arguing, implausibly, that to take a position would be divisive. CCRI seemed likely to be an albatross around Riordan’s neck until election day. In political terms, Riordan has now done well by doing right.

Riordan did not take this position mainly to mollify blacks and Latinos, although it will help blunt a minority mobilization against him. The more subtle issue is divisiveness. Only eight months before the 1997 mayoral primary, Riordan’s public approval has remained stagnant, running in the mid-40% range. His Valley support remains below 50%. He lags among Latinos and does even worse among African Americans. Oddly, the Republican Riordan now, as in 1995, draws his greatest support from the largely Democratic Westside.

In this context, Riordan cannot afford to be seen as divisive. Years of mayoral attacks on Police Chief Willie Williams, who is up for reappointment in 1997, and chronic feuding with African American leaders as well as the City Council have left Riordan vulnerable to the charge of divisiveness. The Westside, the white leg of the biracial coalition behind former Mayor Tom Bradley, has always voted against racial polarizers. If Riordan is seen as divisive, he would be a tempting target for a Westside challenger like Rep. Howard Berman. And if the Westside turns against Riordan, he could lose the election.

Riordan’s opposition to Proposition 209, while driven by local factors, also reflects an increasing discomfort among Republicans about the assault on affirmative action. Colin Powell, the Republicans’ favorite African American, challenged and surprised his fellow Republicans by speaking out strongly in favor of affirmative action. Speaker Newt Gingrich ordered House Republicans to kill a bill similar to Proposition 209. Bob Dole received withering criticism from his own party for snubbing the NAACP. Republicans, who rode to national power by exploiting racial division, are now fearful that they may lose votes if they are seen as the party of divisiveness.

These developments suggest that there is a political center on affirmative action that can help build a majority. Like many issues since 1994 that seemed at first to be dominated by conservatives, affirmative action may have considerable support when it is actually threatened with destruction.

A bipartisan, centrist, majoritarian strategy against Proposition 209 could make headway. The most recent Times poll revealed that voters favored Proposition 209, but by a smaller margin than before, and when they interpreted the measure as ending affirmative action, their support dropped further. Riordan’s announcement should lead CCRI opponents to broaden their strategy. Obviously, the first priority is to mobilize minority groups and liberal Democrats. But the opposition campaign also should go after the same moderate voters Bill Clinton has been courting so successfully. For most voters, the sentiment to reform programs does not extend to throwing kids into the street or blocking opportunity for all.

Even suburban Republican women are a potential target because women more strongly than men support programs to help vulnerable people and also see such programs as broadly helpful to the status of women. In this sense, affirmative action becomes another valuable part of the “safety net,” like Medicare and food stamps, threatened by extreme forces.

Riordan’s staff has indicated that Riordan does not intend to be a “poster child” for the opposition. But his position can be productive in other ways. Studying Riordan’s rationale for opposing 209 is useful. It closely tracks with President Clinton’s “mend it, don’t end it” approach. His position provides a window to the sort of moderate voter who could make the difference in November.

Thus far, the CCRI advocates have dominated the high ground of the debate, associating themselves with fairness and opposition to discrimination and divisiveness. Riordan’s announcement can help win these crucial battles over words and ideas. An effective, well-disciplined battle to stop Proposition 209--no matter the result--could re-energize a broad-based, majoritarian movement for equality.