Clinton Holds 20-Point Lead as GOP Gathers

Bob Dole arrives at the Republican National Convention today hemorrhaging support in the center of the electorate and trailing President Clinton by a formidable 20 percentage points, a nationwide Times Poll has found.

As the GOP gathers to crown Dole as its presidential nominee, the poll shows that Clinton has opened a 56%-to-36% advantage that reflects strength across the ideological and partisan spectrum.

Clinton has built his lead by establishing overwhelming unity among Democratic voters, making unusually large inroads into Republican ranks and running better among independents than any Democratic nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, the survey found.

The past may not reliably be prologue, but no incumbent president who has amassed this large a lead so late in the election year has been defeated in the 40 years for which detailed campaign polling has existed.

The poll underscores the compelling political logic behind Dole’s decision to name as his vice presidential nominee former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Jack Kemp, who has passionately argued for a more “compassionate conservatism.”

Although Dole has solidified the support of Republican conservatives, the survey shows that he faces historically high levels of erosion at the center of his party: Fully one-third of Republicans who describe themselves as moderate or liberal now say they intend to vote for Clinton.

Dole faces comparably high levels of defection among female Republicans and Republicans who favor abortion rights. Among independents who believe that abortion should remain legal, Dole trails Clinton more than 4 to 1.

Though the poll pinpoints some areas of weakness for the president, particularly doubts about his honesty and the country’s direction, mostly it underscores the magnitude of the task facing Dole.

So far, for example, the poll suggests that Dole’s dramatic call for a 15% reduction in income tax rates has not measurably changed his standing.

If Ross Perot, who is bidding for the Reform Party nomination at a convention today in Long Beach, is on the ballot, he would draw substantially from both Clinton and Dole, but he would not substantially alter the balance between them. In a three-way matchup, the poll found, Clinton draws 47%, compared with 30% for Dole and 18% for Perot.

But the survey suggests that Perot faces an uphill climb to expand his appeal: By a 2-to-1 margin, respondents express a negative opinion of the mercurial Texas billionaire, a showing far weaker than that of either Clinton or Dole.

The Times Poll, supervised by acting Poll Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,572 adults nationwide, including 1,290 registered voters, from Aug. 3 through Aug. 6. That was during the period when Dole announced his economic plan on Aug. 5, but before he settled on Kemp as his running mate. The margin of sampling error in the poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The survey finds the Republican Congress in a weakened but still very competitive situation. Just 35% of those surveyed give Congress positive marks for its job performance, while 56% disapprove. (Among independents, just 27% approve, while 62% disapprove.) Asked if Republicans deserve to maintain their majority in Congress, 47% say no, while 42% say yes--a figure essentially unchanged since spring.

Similarly, Democrats hold a narrow 47%-to-43% advantage when respondents are asked which party they intend to support in congressional elections this fall. Responses to that question have fluctuated in recent surveys.

By contrast, Clinton’s lead over Dole has remained within a range of 15 to 20 percentage points in most surveys by The Times and other national media organizations since late February. The current poll finds that preferences in the race are beginning to harden.

Looking at the two-way race, just over 70% of Clinton supporters and nearly 60% of Dole backers say they are “certain” to support their man in November; 27% of Clinton backers and 37% of Dole supporters say they could still change their mind. Of course, with more than 12 weeks remaining before election day, even many who now say they are certain could change their mind.

The poll offers Dole something more than gloom, however. It shows that compared to last spring, the presumptive GOP nominee has made some progress in consolidating the GOP base by strengthening his position among such core Republican groups as conservatives, Southerners and affluent families.

Moreover, when asked to identify Clinton’s most important accomplishment in office, almost half of the respondents say either “none” or “not sure”; the only other double-digit response is to identify the Republican-designed welfare-reform legislation that Clinton has promised to sign into law.

Dole also continues to hold a substantial 48%-to-34% lead over Clinton when voters are asked who “has more honesty and integrity.” And almost 3 in 5 voters say the country is on the wrong track--a level of discontent often ominous for an incumbent.

But against these potential warning signs is continued evidence of substantial strength for Clinton, rooted in brightening assessments of both the economy and his performance in office.

Clinton’s job-approval rating has soared to 58%, his best showing in a Times Poll since the first weeks of his presidency. Respondents who approve of Clinton’s job performance prefer him to Dole by 83% to 11%; those who disapprove back Dole by 75% to 14%.

Also lifting Clinton are attitudes about the economy’s path. Asked how their own economic situation compares to three years ago, 43% say they are better off and 31% say they are about the same; just 26% say they are worse off. That assessment of the economy is significantly more positive than the one voters expressed just before unseating George Bush in 1992, and only slightly less upbeat than the view expressed in surveys just before Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection in 1984.

Overall, 53% of respondents give Clinton positive marks for his handling of the economy, while just 36% disapprove; that’s also his best showing since the first weeks of his presidency.

Anxieties about the longer-term direction of the economy haven’t eased, however.

Just 18% of those surveyed say they expect the next generation to enjoy a better standard of living than Americans now experience; 46% say they expect them to be worse off and 33% expect them to remain locked in place.

But Dole hasn’t yet been able to capitalize on that anxiety. Though voters unhappy with the nation’s direction traditionally lean away from the party in power, there’s no sign in the survey that the discontented either blame Clinton or see Dole as their salvation.

The survey asked the 59% of those who consider the country to be on the wrong track whom they blame: They split evenly between the parties: Clinton (18%) and congressional Democrats (13%) on one hand; the Reagan and Bush administrations (21%) and congressional Republicans (10%) on the other.

By contrast, the roughly 3 in 10 respondents who say they believe that the country is moving in the right direction are much more likely to credit Clinton (42%) or congressional Democrats (12%) than Reagan and Bush (17%) or congressional Republicans (12%).

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That finding helps explain one of the poll’s most striking results: Dole’s inability to run any better than even with Clinton among those who say the country is on the wrong track. Likewise, Clinton narrowly leads Dole among those who say they are worse off than they were three years ago. Even those who fear declining living standards prefer the incumbent.

At the same time, Clinton enjoys the traditional incumbent’s premium and holds a large lead among those satisfied with the economy and the country’s direction. Three-fourths of those who say the country is on the right track, for instance, back Clinton over Dole.

Measuring the two men’s personal characteristics, poll respondents offer a more mixed result. Dole draws higher marks than Clinton on honesty and integrity.

But Clinton has an even greater advantage, 54% to 26%, when they are asked which candidate “better understands the problems of average Americans.” Clinton leads more modestly (46% to 34%) when they are asked which candidate has “better ideas” for solving the country’s problems. And respondents tilt narrowly toward the president on two critical measures: who has stronger leadership qualities (Clinton, 47% to 43%) and who has better ideas for strengthening the economy (43% say Clinton; 39% say Dole). On all four of these measures, Clinton’s standing has improved since April.

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Asked about allegations of scandal against Clinton and his White House, respondents splinter. Half say they “like Bill Clinton” and consider the accusations “just partisan politics as usual”; an additional one-third say they “never liked” Clinton and are now more committed to vote against him because of the charges. Only 11% say they no longer support Clinton because of the accusations and are leaning away from voting for him. But even that sentiment is open to question: In the last group, Dole leads Clinton only by 46% to 37%.

As for Dole’s call last Monday for an across-the-board cut in tax rates, eventually it may prove an attractive rallying cry for the challenger, particularly with Kemp proselytizing for it. But in this survey, Clinton’s lead over Dole actually expanded in the two nights of polling after Dole announced his plan.

And when asked what the government’s economic priority should be, just 23% say cutting taxes; more prefer to focus on reducing the federal budget deficit (39%) and spending more on education, public works and research (28%). Though Dole may sway their allegiance over time, Clinton now holds a narrow lead even among those who say cutting taxes should be the priority.

As Dole moves onto the stage in San Diego, the survey shows he needs to make converts across the board. Among Democrats, Clinton leads by 90% to 6%. By contrast, Dole wins just 76% of Republicans, while 18% defect to Clinton. At the same time, Clinton leads Dole among independents, 62% to 25%.

Looking at the fault lines in the electorate more precisely isolates the sources of Dole’s current weakness. Six out of 10 Republicans call themselves conservative; they prefer Dole to Clinton by 11 to 1. But among the 40% of Republicans who call themselves moderate or liberal, Dole leads Clinton only by 58% to 33%. By contrast, Clinton suffers virtually no defection in the center of his party, leading Dole among moderate and conservative Democrats by 87% to 9%.

Likewise, among Republicans who support abortion rights, which is about 40% of the party, Clinton attracts 29%, compared with Dole’s 63%. (Antiabortion Democrats, again by contrast, stay with Clinton over Dole by 83% to 14%.) One-fourth of Republican women, compared with just one-tenth of Republican men, now say they intend to vote for Clinton.

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Similarly, among independents, Dole leads Clinton among those who call themselves conservative, by a relatively narrow 45% to 38%. But with the two-thirds of independents who describe themselves as moderate or liberal, Clinton runs away to a 74%-to-16% lead.

Dole is also suffering substantial erosion among Democrats and independents who helped to power the GOP takeover of Congress in 1994. Overall, one-fifth of respondents who backed Republicans in 1994 now prefer Clinton.

Other demographic viewpoints illuminate the breadth of Clinton’s advantage. The president leads Dole, 62% to 29%, among women, but he also leads by 8 points among men. He leads Dole, 66% to 25%, among single people, but he also holds a 10-percentage-point advantage among married couples, a traditional Republican stronghold.

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The poll also found surprisingly broad-based agreement that abortion “should not be part of any political party’s national conventional platform.” Nearly 4 out of 5 respondents, including strong majorities in both parties, agree with that sentiment; two-thirds strongly agree.

Times research analyst Monika McDermott contributed to this story.

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Clinton’s Big Lead

President Clinton still commands a wide lead over Dole if the presidential election were held today.

The horse race

Among registered voters

Clinton: 56%

Dole: 36%

Don’t know: 6%

Someone else: 2%

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Vote for Clinton

Men: 50%

Women: 62%

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Vote for Dole

Men: 42%

Women: 29%

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Vote for someone else / don’t know

Men: 8%

Women: 9%

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Vote for Clinton

Dems: 90%

GOP: 18%

Ind.: 62%

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Vote for Dole

Dems: 6%

GOP: 76%

Ind.: 25%

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Vote for someone else / don’t know

Dems: 4%

GOP: 6%

Ind.: 13%

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Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

Reasons Behind the Support

Several reasons for President Clinton’s commanding lead are the high marks Americans give Clinton for handling his job, the nation’s economy and foreign affairs. And many believe he understands the problems of the average American better than Dole. In contrast, Congress doesn’t fare too well--its job rating is very negative.

CLINTON VS. DOLE

(Among Registered Voters)

Who do you think:

Better understands the problems of the average American?

CLINTON: 54%

DOLE: 26

Has stronger leadership qualities?

CLINTON: 47%

DOLE: 43

Has better ideas for solving the problems this country currently faces?

CLINTON: 46%

DOLE: 34

Has better ideas for strengthening the nation’s economy?

CLINTON: 43%

DOLE: 39

Has more honesty and integrity?

CLINTON: 34%

DOLE: 48

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CLINTON JOB RATING

Do you approve or disapprove of Bill Clinton’s handling of:

His job as president?

APPROVE: 58%

DISAPPROVE: 37

The nation’s economy?

APPROVE: 53%

DISAPPROVE: 36

Foreign affairs?

APPROVE: 50%

DISAPPROVE: 37

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CONGRESS

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?

Approve: 35%

Disapprove: 56

Do you think the Republicans deserve to maintain control of Congress or not?

Yes: 42%

No: 47

Which party can do a better job handling major problems facing the country?

Democrats: 36%

Republicans: 35

Both: 8

Neither: 14

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% where not all answer categories are shown.

How the poll was conducted: The Times Poll contacted 1,572 adults nationwide, including 1,290 registered voters, by telephone Aug. 3 through Aug. 6. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that people with listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and party identification. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.