Good Feelings Carry Clinton to Solid Lead

With voters resistant to both of Bob Dole’s principal policy arguments, and increasingly optimistic about the nation’s basic direction, President Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead in his drive for reelection, a new Times Poll has found.

As he battles to overcome Clinton’s consistent advantage in national surveys, Dole is primarily emphasizing two issues: his promise to cut income tax rates by 15% and the doubling of teenage drug use that has occurred during Clinton’s presidency.

But the Times survey shows that a solid plurality of respondents prefer Clinton’s more-targeted set of tax breaks to Dole’s sweeping tax-cut plan. And while giving Clinton slightly negative marks for his handling of the drug problem, the survey showed that a strong majority does not blame the president for the steady rise in drug use during his tenure.

Overall, the poll showed Clinton riding on a cresting wave of good feeling, with perceptions of his job performance, the economy’s strength and the nation’s basic direction all surging toward the most positive levels of his presidency.

Buoyed by that optimism, Clinton holds a broad-based 51%-to-35% lead over Dole among registered voters, with Ross Perot trailing at just 10%. Among the smaller group considered likely to vote, Clinton leads with 54% to 37% for Dole and just 6% for Perot.

Less than eight weeks before election day, the poll also suggests that Clinton’s strong position could boost Democrats in their uphill drive to regain control of one, or both, houses of Congress. The survey shows that Democrats now hold a 10-percentage-point lead when voters are asked which party they intend to support in the congressional balloting. The Times Poll, supervised by acting Poll Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,522 adults from Sept. 7 through Sept. 10; the survey included 1,265 registered voters. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The survey offers conflicting signals to a bipartisan commission due to recommend by Monday whether Perot should be included in the presidential debates. While 63% of those surveyed said Perot should be included, 54% also said there was no chance they would vote for him in November--which could raise doubts about whether the Texan passes the political viability test the commission has laid down for inclusion.

Indeed in a four-way test of sentiment, Perot finished just a shade ahead of Ralph Nader, who is running a shoestring campaign as the Green Party candidate. In that scenario, among likely voters, Perot polled 5% and Nader 4%, compared to 36% for Dole and 53% for Clinton.

Ray of Hope Fades

For Republicans, the darkest news in the survey may be the brightening public attitudes about the nation’s direction. Notwithstanding Clinton’s consistent advantage in polls since December, Republican strategists saw a ray of hope earlier in the year in the high percentage of Americans who said the country was off on the wrong track. Such dissatisfaction usually signals trouble for incumbents.

But now--as in the weeks before Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection in 1984--those clouds are suddenly lifting. In the new survey, 42% of respondents said they believe that the country is going in the right direction, compared to 48% who still said they consider it off on the wrong track. That’s a dramatic improvement just since August, when respondents, by almost 2 to 1, said the country was on the wrong track, according to a Times poll. Indeed, the current figures are the highest “right direction” and the lowest “wrong track” responses measured in Times surveys since the opening weeks of Clinton’s presidency.

One reason for the improving attitudes about the nation’s direction is broadening optimism about the economy. In the new poll, 53% of those surveyed said the economy was not in recession at all, the highest number Times surveys have measured since first asking the question in February of 1991--halfway through George Bush’s presidency. Meanwhile, just 8% said the economy faced a serious recession, the lowest number the survey has found.

The Big Question

Asked the campaign question that helped Reagan oust Jimmy Carter in 1980--Are you better off than you were four years ago?--47% of respondents said yes, 33% said their situation hasn’t changed, and just 19% said they are worse off.

On Clinton’s overall job performance, 57% of respondents gave Clinton positive marks, while just 37% disapproved. These attitudes powerfully predict preferences in the presidential race itself: Eighty-three percent of voters who approve of Clinton’s job performance said they will vote for him, while he drew support from just 5% of those who disapprove.

Only on his handling of the “country’s illegal-drug problem” does Clinton receive poor grades. With Republicans hammering the president for a doubling in teen drug use during the past four years, just 39% of those surveyed gave Clinton positive marks on fighting narcotics; 44% said they disapprove of his performance.

But asked directly how much Clinton “is to blame” for the sharp rise in teen drug usage, just 11% said “a great deal”; 22% said “only some”; 21% said “not much” and a plurality of 43% said not at all.

Respondents divided almost evenly on the two central points Dole has stressed about education. By 48% to 44%, those surveyed narrowly supported Dole’s call for vouchers that parents could use to help pay for private schools. Asked if teachers unions play a negative role in education, as Dole has charged, 41% agreed, but an equal percentage disagreed.

Dole’s call for legislation that would allow states to bar the children of illegal immigrants from public schools--a measure Clinton opposes--also divided the voters almost evenly, with 48% supporting and 45% opposing.

Welfare Reform

Another pillar of the GOP social agenda shows less appeal: Just 40% said they agree with the provision in the recent welfare reform legislation that would deny benefits to legal immigrants who are not yet citizens. Fifty-four percent said they disapprove. Clinton has said he will seek to repeal those provisions if reelected.

The public closely divided on another major argument between the candidates. During the past several months, Clinton has argued that government should provide parents with “tools” like education programs to help them raise their children, while Dole has maintained the best thing government can do for families is to cut taxes and let them keep more of their own money; 47% of those surveyed agreed with Clinton’s position, while 43% aligned with Dole.

On the central economic argument between the candidates, though, respondents leaned strongly toward Clinton. Dole has promised to cut taxes by more than $500 billion over six years and still balance the federal budget without making major reductions in programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. Only 36% said they considered the Republican’s proposal “realistic.” Nearly six out of 10 said they considered it “unrealistic.”

Clinton’s agenda of roughly $110 billion in tax cuts--targeted primarily toward families with children and defraying the cost of college education--received better marks. Just over half of those polled said they considered it “realistic” that Clinton could implement his plan without increasing the deficit; 41% said they viewed the plan as “unrealistic.”

Asked directly if they would prefer Clinton’s tax plan or Dole’s, 45% sided with the president while 32% backed the challenger’s proposal.

Still, just 45% of respondents said they expect that Clinton will be able to cut taxes if reelected, while 44% said they doubt it. Only about one-fourth said Clinton would produce a balanced budget if reelected, while two-thirds said they were dubious.

Expectations are higher in two other areas. A narrow plurality believes that Clinton would be able to improve the nation’s schools if reelected, while a solid majority expects that he could increase access to health care for children and unemployed workers.

Despite these limited expectations in specific policy areas, respondents seem to believe the country is on an upward trajectory that would survive any outcome in the presidential race. By 53% to 44%, respondents said they believe that “things in the nation” would improve substantially if Clinton is reelected; a more equivocal 49%-to-46% plurality also believed that conditions would improve if Dole is elected.

In the presidential race itself, the overriding story from the poll is the breadth and stability of Clinton’s advantage. Clinton leads Dole among women and men (Unlike other recent surveys, the Times Poll found no “gender gap” between the sentiments of women and men.) and among respondents of every age group, income level and level of education (though he is running strongest with Americans of high school education or less).

Likewise, Clinton leads among respondents in all four regions of the country (though his advantage is razor thin in the South), and among union and nonunion households. Despite the relentless attacks on the National Rifle Assn. at the Democratic convention in Chicago last month, Clinton even leads Dole by 8 percentage points among gun owners, while enjoying a 22-point advantage among voters who don’t own guns.

The survey also shows that Clinton’s efforts to court parents are paying off. Among single voters, who have become a Democratic stronghold, Clinton leads Dole by almost 2 to 1, according to the Times Poll. But Clinton also leads Dole, 49% to 39%, among married respondents. Among married couples with children--the group that Clinton’s campaign advisors view as the critical swing vote in the electorate--Clinton now leads Dole by 12 percentage points.

Religious Voters

Clinton is also running surprisingly well with religious voters, who have also leaned toward Republicans for the past quarter-century. Dole still leads among white fundamentalist Christians, but only by 55% to 32%, a more narrow advantage than previous GOP nominees have enjoyed.

Clinton, though, slightly leads Dole among all respondents who attend church at least three times a month (46% to 44%); the president holds a 28-point advantage among those who attend church infrequently, and leads by almost 4 to 1 among those who never attend church.

Independents continued to be Perot’s one source of strength, with about one-fifth saying they support him; he drew negligible support from both Democrats and Republicans. Almost two-thirds of respondents expressed unfavorable opinions about him, and just one-fourth had a positive response.

Even the scandal that forced the resignation of Clinton’s chief campaign strategist last month has caused the president no immediate damage. Just 5% of those surveyed said they were undecided and more likely to vote for Dole because of the allegation that Dick Morris engaged in an affair with a prostitute.

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Clinton’s Lead--Key Factors

Increasing optimism about the country is one reason for Clinton’s lead.

Are things in this country going in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

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Are you better off, worse off, or about the same as four years ago?

Better off: 47%

Clinton: 67%

Dole: 21%

Perot: 8%

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Same: 33%

Clinton: 43%

Dole: 45%

Perot: 8%

*

Worse off: 19%

Clinton: 30%

Dole: 50%

Perot: 16%

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Another reason for President Clinton’s lead is that he is suffering defections from only 9% of moderate and conservative Democrats while he draws support from one-fifth of non-conservative Republicans. Clinton leads Bob Dole by 20 percentage points among independents.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Times Poll contacted 1,522 adults nationwide, including 1,265 registered voters, by telephone Sept. 7 through Sept. 10. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and party identification. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Notes: Numbers may not add up to 100% where not all answer categories are shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll.