Hot-Button Issue Fails to Attract Big Money on Either Side

So far, the hottest political debate in California--whether government should end its affirmative action programs--has been waged by campaign leaders forced to survive on shoestring budgets and tactical savvy.

Whether either side of the Proposition 209 debate will ever get a boost of cash in the final two months of the election is still unknown. But the situation illustrates a reality for social issue campaigns like those involving affirmative action or, in the case of Proposition 187 two years ago, illegal immigration.

They are spiced with strong emotions and widely debated in academic forums, television talk shows and the news media. But they also represent a political hot potato--too hot for most of the business community or the traditional sources of big-money political contributions.

“There is not enough money,” said Ward Connerly, chairman of the Proposition 209 campaign. “The other side is going to have the same trouble we are going to have--and I’ll admit we are having trouble.

“If the candidates don’t get involved and infuse this thing with a lot of money--which I don’t think is going to happen--we are going to be fighting this in the trenches,” he said.

Last spring, corporations and lawyers groups combined to generate nearly $20 million for a trio of propositions regarding tort reform. In contrast, both sides in the fight over Proposition 209 have spent a bit more than $3 million combined this year.

Even that is substantially more than Proposition 187 sponsors gained in 1994. Robert Kiley, who managed the campaign to end most public benefits for illegal immigrants, said the total budget for their effort was about $700,000.

“I spent countless wee hours of the morning on talk radio,” said Harold Ezell, the former Western regional chief of the Immigration and Naturalization Service under President Ronald Reagan and chairman of the Proposition 187 campaign. “We didn’t really have any money.”

At about this point in the 1994 campaign, however, things changed dramatically. That’s when Gov. Pete Wilson, speaking at a state Republican Party convention, decided to latch his reelection effort to the ballot measure.

Eventually, Wilson’s campaign spent more than $2 million on a pair of television commercials addressing issues raised by Proposition 187.

This time, there is no evidence that Proposition 209 will get such a boost. There are no statewide candidates on the California ballot. And Bob Dole’s presidential campaign has so far declined to embrace the issue as a political vehicle--even though the candidate has endorsed the measure.

“I don’t get any clarity about whether this is going to be a front-burner thing for Dole or one item on his agenda,” Connerly said.

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Leaders of the campaign opposing Proposition 209 have similar complaints. They are short on money, and some, at least, are not expecting that situation to change.

But the status quo is far more alarming for opponents, since polls indicate that a stagnant campaign means victory for the initiative.

“We will lose this race . . . for lack of a mere $3 million” to run effective television commercials, said Constance Rice, Western regional counsel for the NAACP Legal Defense Fund and a leader of the anti-Proposition 209 campaign.

“I’m just assuming it’s not going to happen,” Rice said of the prospect for raising the money. “We’ll see.”

With California’s 15 million voters, conventional political wisdom has it that a strong grass-roots effort can swing 3% to 5% of the electorate. That has made the difference in some close races. But right now, polls indicate this is not a close race.

A Los Angeles Times Poll released today found that the measure is favored more than 2 to 1 (60% to 25%) among registered California voters. The result was largely unchanged from The Times’ last survey on the issue in July.

“Unless you get on television, none of this matters,” Rice said.

Pat Ewing, director of the No on Proposition 209 campaign, was more optimistic about the effort’s financial outlook. But she also conceded, “It will be very difficult if we don’t get on television and radio.”

The first radio commercials regarding Proposition 209 were broadcast earlier this month by the initiative’s sponsors. More radio commercials are expected from both sides. But neither campaign is talking about its media plans, particularly the possibility of television commercials.

Aside from their similar struggles for money, the two campaigns each have some potentially significant advantages and disadvantages.

In partisan politics, the advantage goes to supporters of the measure. Republicans are so hopeful that Proposition 209 will help their candidates throughout the state that GOP officials expect to donate about $500,000 to the initiative campaign, on top of another $500,000 that they donated in January.

On the other side, the issue has split Democratic ranks, causing party officials to shy away from choosing sides.

In a recent demonstration of the high-level political interest in the proposition as well as the cash shortage, Wilson and House Speaker Newt Gingrich made a strong appeal for help to Republican business leaders.

“I think this is as important as any single resource in the campaign,” Gingrich (R-Ga.) said in a “confidential” 20-minute telephone conference call that was reported in the Daily News of Los Angeles.

Wilson added that the measure “is very much an issue in legislative and congressional races. And it is one that works strongly to our advantage.”

For opponents of Proposition 209, the advantage appears to be in organization.

The opposition campaign has been built from the ranks of several major interest groups like the NAACP, National Organization for Women, Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund and several other civil rights or women’s groups. Many of the organizations are working independently to fight the initiative while coordinating their efforts with the No on Proposition 209 headquarters.

In contrast, proponents have a much smaller coalition of supporters that the campaign has had to cobble together itself during the last year.

Jennifer Nelson, spokeswoman for Proposition 209, laughed at the campaign’s endorsement list. “I keep getting asked by reporters, ‘What groups have endorsed you?’ ” she said. “I don’t know of any.”

Nelson turned to a notebook for endorsement files and found one letter from a supportive group--the Oxnard school board. She also produced a long list of individual supporters including many Republicans but no Democrats.

The organizational difference is also reflected in the numbers of people both sides have available for grass-roots campaign work.

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Opponents of the measure say they have a list of 400 surrogate speakers who represent their cause at civic groups, academic forums or media appearances. Nelson, on the other hand, counted 54 names on the speakers list in favor of the proposition.

Likewise, the opposition reported that it has 25 paid staff members at two campaign offices--one in Los Angeles and another in San Francisco. Proponents claim 12 paid staff members at one office in Los Angeles.

Unlike the opposition, proponents have not done any private polling.

With a little less than seven weeks remaining before the election, observers believe the attention given to the measure is likely to increase significantly soon. Already, just the invitation of ex-Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke to a Cal State Northridge debate Sept. 25 generated a political furor after Proposition 209 supporters objected.

Later this month, opponents of the measure are planning a statewide bus tour featuring people such as Patricia Ireland of NOW and the Rev. Jesse Jackson. Meanwhile, Connerly is expecting to give about half a dozen speeches per week.

Based on the experience of Proposition 187, this may be the calm before the storm.

“This is like the doldrums, right now,” said Kiley. “Everybody is getting nervous--what am I supposed to be doing? I’ve got them out there walking door to door, but there’s not a lot of attention. . . . I think this is another one of those whisper campaigns.”