Orange County Election Poll Shows Dead Heat

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GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole is in a dead heat with President Clinton in Orange County, and lacks the 2-to-1 margin needed from this Republican-rich area to carry California, according to the UCI Annual Survey.

The poll found Dole ahead, 44% to 40%, among likely voters, while Clinton led, 43% to 41%, among all registered voters. Reform Party candidate Ross Perot received 5% in both samplings, while 10% of voters were undecided.

The survey, conducted by Mark Baldassare, chairman of the Department of Urban Planning at UC Irvine, is based on a projected voter turnout of 78% in November, which mirrors the four most recent presidential contests. Dole “is way off from the margin he needs in Orange County to win in the state,” he said.


Typically, a GOP presidential candidate needs to carry Orange County by at least 300,000 votes to win California, say strategists from both parties. That’s because the county is the state’s greatest Republican stronghold and the place GOP candidates rely upon to offset heavy voting by Democrats in the Bay Area and Los Angeles.

In 1992, George Bush defeated Clinton in the county by a margin of 44% to 32%. But he lost the state to Clinton 46% to 33%.