GOP’s House Fortunes May Hinge on Key Northwest Races

There is perhaps no more formidable grandmother in national politics than Linda Smith, the sweet-smiling west wind of the right who stunned the political establishment two years ago by mounting a three-week write-in campaign for Congress--and winning.

Smith went on to earn a reputation as the most conservative member of the House of Representatives (“off the grid,” said one national ranking), a key campaigner on behalf of political reform and a nearly unstoppable force in this state’s politics.

Conventional wisdom held that the governorship was hers if she decided to seek it this year. She did not. Instead, Smith filed for reelection to her southwest Washington congressional seat.

Enter Brian Baird, a Democratic psychology professor so unheard of nobody could figure out why he was even bothering to run against Smith. But in Washington’s open primary last month, when voters could cast ballots for either party, Baird drew an unexpected 47.5% of the vote, nudging to within five percentage points of Smith.

The results have sent shock waves across Washington, and on to the nation’s capital, where the Republicans’ first majority in 70 years could be upset if Democrats make a big recovery in the West.

No state better symbolized the Democratic wipeout of 1994 than this one. Going into that election, Washington had eight Democratic congressmen, including the speaker of the House, Thomas S. Foley. Afterward, there were only two.

Now it’s two years later, and none of Washington’s six Republican freshmen managed to win more than 55% of the Sept. 17 primary vote. Freshman Rep. Randy Tate trailed his Democratic challenger with just 47.9%.

*

The Republican revolution has hit troubled waters in Washington, where districts once considered safely Republican are now listed as tossups, and the “contract with America” is in danger of foundering in what some political analysts predict could be another swing in America’s oscillating political mood.

Political street fights have erupted in the suburbs of central Washington--where the key races will be won or lost--with environmental, labor, abortion-rights and business lobbies funding millions of dollars in advertising, and candidates trawling service-club breakfasts, shopping centers, political forums and front porches in search of the stray vote.

Some party officials predict up to $7 million will be spent in the Seattle area alone to woo the undecided.

These are the well-trimmed suburbs and blue-collar neighborhoods, with names like Woodinville, Auburn, Kent and Tacoma, where voters dumped the incumbents two years ago. It is in these same communities--one the home of a Boeing Co. manufacturing plant, one the headquarters of the timber giant Weyerhaeuser Co., another a rural-oriented bedroom community of Seattle--that voters will be asked whether they’re finished striking back at Congress. Political analysts say up to half the new freshmen could get the boot. Maybe more.

“We voted them in last time because we wanted a change. The people that had been there before just weren’t taking care of the country’s problems. We wanted someone that would do something,” said Gary Kelly, a Boeing computer programmer from Woodinville, one of the suburban battlefields where Republican freshman Tate is trying to hold on.

“But that doesn’t mean we gave them carte blanche to undo the environmental protections we have, and everything else. They kind of went off the deep end. . . . I think I’d just like to try someone else.”

Republican Party officials caution against over-interpreting the GOP’s primary showing, noting that on the whole their incumbents did better than Democratic incumbents two years ago despite 18 months of heavy-hitting advertising aimed at four incumbents targeted by the AFL-CIO.

Moreover, the crop of Democratic challengers is largely unknown, underfunded, and includes candidates with “past problems,” according to a statement by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Most analysts agree that the primary results aren’t necessarily predictors of what is to come in November, yet some of the other indicators--anticipated turnout, for one--could mean even more cause for GOP concern.

A key factor could be the fact that 600,000 fewer people voted in the Republican year of 1994 than in 1992, when Washington elected “every Democrat it could find,” said pollster Stuart Elway. When Elway studied the “missing voters,” he found them more likely to be Democrats than Republicans by a 3-to-2 margin.

*

If Democratic voters who skipped the balloting in 1994 show up this time, “then it bodes well for the Democrats,” Elway said. At the same time, President Clinton’s relative strength in the Northwest may not provide much of an extra boost; the state went for Clinton in 1992 and Bush in 1988; in half the elections since 1960, voters have split their bets, electing one party to the White House and another to Congress; independent-minded Washington was Ross Perot’s second-best state in 1992, with 24% of the vote.

“Do I think this is going to be a Democratic year? The answer’s yes. Do I think the Democrats are going to recapture a majority of the congressional seats? The answer’s yes,” said University of Washington political science professor David Olson, noting that a healthy economy and concerns about the environment are likely to boost Democratic votes across the board.

In at least one district, even the official Republican optimism stops. Tate trailed Democratic state Sen. Adam Smith in the primary vote in the 9th District, which spans the suburbs south of Seattle. (Tate received 47.9% to Smith’s 49%.) Party officials have conceded they’re worried.

Tate’s votes to weaken clean-water standards and curtail the availability of abortions have put him on target lists for labor unions, abortion-rights groups and environmental organizations across the country. His past support for religious broadcaster Pat Robertson’s 1988 presidential campaign has earned him backing from religious conservatives but a tag as “poster boy of the radical right” from state Democratic leaders.

“What happened in ’94 was that people were quite correctly fed up with a Congress that was too partisan and out of touch with the voters. They looked up at Congress and said ‘We think you’ve become too arrogant and forgotten about the rest of us,’ ” said Adam Smith, a prosecutor.

“It was a vote against 40 years of power, it wasn’t an endorsement of every idea Newt Gingrich and Randy Tate ever had,” he claims.

Still, the big-name companies in the district, Microsoft Corp., Boeing and Weyerhaeuser among them, have thrown their support behind Tate. Adam Smith says corporate officials have told him the companies need to support the incumbent, who is in position to help them in Congress.

Tate had raised nearly $893,000 even before the primary, compared with Smith’s $325,000. On the other hand, major outside spenders like the AFL-CIO, the League of Conservation Voters, the National Abortion Rights Action League and the Sierra Club are weighing in with independent expenditures on Adam Smith’s behalf.

A similar close race is in play in the 1st District suburbs north, east and west of Seattle, where GOP freshman Rick White carried 50% of the primary vote against two Democratic challengers. White has also been targeted by national environmental and labor groups, but he is widely considered more moderate than Tate--the number of his votes that correspond with those of House Speaker Gingrich is the lowest of the Washington freshmen--and could potentially withstand an anti-GOP backlash better than his colleagues.

On the southern border with Oregon in the 3rd District, Linda Smith’s poor showing against challenger Baird was the surprise of the primary, but she remains confident, arguing that Baird’s strongest showing can be traced to those absentee voters who cast ballots directly after the Democratic convention, with a heavy get-out-the-vote effort by labor groups among Democratic voters.

“You’re going to see the populist tide stay,” she says. “The people who voted for me were the independents, the people that want strong leadership. They don’t want a puppet.”

As Baird sees it, he was outspent by Linda Smith in the primary campaign 2 to 1, had none of the outside expenditures by national labor groups that other Democratic challengers had and challenges Smith in a district that has historically been Democratic.

“She won [in 1994] with fewer votes than the previous Republican lost with, $2 million had been spent to get her into office and then she had a voting record that if people understood it, I’m confident they’d reject,” Baird said.

Also getting a run for his money is George Nethercutt, who ousted Foley two years ago in eastern Washington’s 5th District. He faces a spirited challenge from wheat farmer Judy Olson. A post-primary poll commissioned by local TV station KHQ showed Nethercutt leading Olson by 49% to 47%, a statistical dead heat. Nethercutt pulled 50.7% in the primary.

It is, in short, a year when no one is sitting back--not even Linda Smith, who despite her confident predictions is rushing among campaign appearances, commissioning polls and taking out ads. “Linda,” campaign manager Sharon Bumala said the day after the primary balloting, “is taking off the gloves.”

* APPEALS TO MINORITIES

Vice presidential candidates press urban issues. A11

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

GOP Spotlight

Washington state was a fertile turf of 1994’s Republican revolution--in six of the state’s nine districts, GOP insurgents captured previously Democratic seats. This year, Democrats hope to recoup some of those losses as part of their overall bid to regain the U.S. House. Here’s a quick look at those races (the three districts in the shades areas--two held by Democrats, one by a Republican--are not expected to change hands):

1st DISTRICT: Rick White is the most moderate of the GOP incumbents, breaking ranks with party leaders on budget and environment issues. He still faces a strong challenge from Jeffrey Coopersmith in a contest targeted by the AFL-CIO.

2nd DISTRICT: Jack Metcalf called House Speaker Newt Gingrich “a visionary,” but then bucked him on several votes, (he backed increasing the minimum wage, for instance). Democrat Kevin Quigley, raising money fast, could make a run of it.

3rd DISTRICT: Linda Smith, who earned a ranking as the House’s most conservative member, initially seemed a lock for re-election. But she is facing an unexpectedly vigorous challenge from psychologist Brian Baird.

4th DISTRICT: Doc Hastings towed the GOP leadership line and would be sitting comfortable save the threat by Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole to shut down district’s biggest employer, the U.S. Energy Dept.

5th DISTRICT: George Nethercutt Jr. ousted ex-Speaker Tom Foley two years ago. His current Democrat foe, Judy Olson, has the backing of eastern Washington wheat growers, a formidable force. Polls show them neck and neck.

9th DISTRICT: Randy Tate was the only GOP incumbent who trailed in the state’s open primary vote, running behind Democrat state Sen. Adam Smith. This race, one of the nation’s most closely watched, should go down to the wire.