Electoral College Survey Gives Clinton Solid Lead

President Clinton enters tonight’s first debate in a commanding position to win reelection, clearly ahead of GOP rival Bob Dole in enough states to win a decisive electoral college victory, according to a 50-state Associated Press survey.

While Dole has pulled close in several target states of late, Clinton holds double-digit leads in most of the big, industrial-state electoral battlegrounds. Dole, on the other hand, is still clawing to lock up several states considered solid Republican bastions.

Indeed, the AP survey found that Clinton enters the debates, and the final month of the campaign, in a stronger position than at this time four years ago, when he went on to defeat George Bush in an electoral landslide despite winning just 43% of the popular vote.

The Democratic incumbent is clearly ahead in 25 states and the District of Columbia with a combined 314 electoral votes--44 more than the 270 needed to win the White House. Tennessee, the home state of Vice President Al Gore, was leaning Clinton’s way, though Dole and running mate Jack Kemp are battling fiercely for its 11 electoral votes.

In contrast, Dole was clearly ahead in just seven states with 38 electoral votes. Four states with another 62 electoral votes were leaning Dole’s way. Because of their GOP traditions, Texas and Virginia were included in this group even though polls find Clinton in statistical ties with Dole.

Another 13 states with a combined 113 votes were considered tossups heading into the final month. These include Florida, Arizona, Indiana, Oklahoma and Alabama--traditionally solid GOP territory yet states where Clinton is running even or slightly ahead of Dole.

Many of these tossup states also broke late for Bush in 1992. But even if Dole were to somehow win all 13, in addition to the 11 where he leads or is favored, he would still be nearly 60 electoral votes short of victory. To get to 270, he would appear to have little hope except to erase double-digit Clinton leads in at least three of these big battlegrounds: Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Clinton’s lead is anchored on strong support in New England, the mid-Atlantic states and the Pacific West. With just a month to go, Dole needs to shore up his support in the traditionally Republican South and Rocky Mountain West, while at the same time cutting into Clinton’s lead in the industrial Midwest.

At this point four years ago, Clinton had roughly 200 electoral votes firmly in his grasp and was leading in the industrial battlegrounds, but not as comfortably as he is this year.

Dole, on the other hand, faces an electoral map eerily similar to the bleak one that confronted Bush at this point in 1992.