The Unthinkable: GOP Bastions Aren’t Solidly Behind Dole : In usually Republican areas, it’s becoming easy to find party members who are either undecided or leaning toward Clinton. They cite lackluster ticket, party’s stand on issues.

Clinton or Dole? The question elicits a good 20 seconds of silence from Republican Howard Rupp. His eyes scan the ceiling of Tommy’s Family Restaurant. He fiddles with his French fries.

Clinton or Dole? As they stroll their 4-year-old daughter toward the beach, Republicans Gary and Debbie Rice respond like this: “Welllllllll . . . “

That’s not how it’s supposed to be before a general election in Republican bastions such as this one. This fall, however, it is surprisingly easy to find dedicated Republicans, here and in similar communities elsewhere around the country, who either remain undecided or say they will vote for President Clinton.

Nationally, polls show Bob Dole losing roughly one out of eight Republican voters--the sort of intraparty split that once regularly plagued the Democrats, but which Republican presidential candidates have not faced in many years.

In interviews, voters offer an array of reasons for their defections--including a lack of excitement with Dole and gripes about the party’s positions on specific issues.

Those doubts prefigure what could be a difficult debate within the party should Dole lose the election next month. Already, Republican activists have begun arguing about whether it is their message or their messenger that is to blame for Clinton’s current large lead in the polls. That discussion is only likely to intensify in the weeks to come.

Publicly, Republican officials downplay the idea of defections within the party’s ranks. Orange County Republican Chairman Tom Fuentes, for example, contends that reports of Republican drift in his county--the Republican core of the state--are “pure fiction. . . . The energy and enthusiasm we have seen for the Dole ticket in Orange County is as strong as we have ever seen for any Republican nominee,” he said.

But that GOP gusto was not evident in recent conversations with voters.

In previous elections, for instance, Rupp, a 72-year-old retired physician and investor, was resolute in his GOP loyalties. This election, however, stirs uncertainty.

“I’ll probably wind up voting for Dole,” he said. “But I’m rather dissatisfied. I wish we had a younger and smarter candidate.”

As he ponders the election aloud, Rupp weighs issues that other voters say they confronted--and he sounds as if he too may be talking himself into something.

Clinton, Rupp says, “lacks certain character qualifications. And his political beliefs swing in the wind. But it could be argued, I guess, that that means he gives people what they want.”

Rupp nails a French fry with his fork. He ruminates as he chews, then says: “To me, he’s done a surprisingly good job his last four years in office.”

On the other hand, Dole’s proposed 15% cut in income tax rates is “great,” Rupp said. “But it makes you wonder what he’s been doing for the last 30 years in Congress.” Why didn’t he cut taxes before? Rupp wonders. Besides, he says, a tax cut “is not a panacea. We have definite problems that Dole isn’t addressing.”

Whether he switches his vote to Clinton on Nov. 5 or not, Rupp says his party is going to have to make some serious changes if it hopes to again fire him with enthusiasm.

“I talk to a lot of people, and the recurring theme I hear is that they’re dissatisfied with the way government works,” he said. “Power groups are being heard more than the people’s voice. That alienates people.” And Dole, he said, is at least as guilty as Clinton of succumbing to interest pressures.

Indeed, most Republican voters who say they are either wobbling or defecting this election seem to share a simmering anger about the quality of this year’s presidential candidates and the process that put them on the ballot.

In 1992, the independent candidacy of Ross Perot served as a safety valve for voter frustration. In Orange County, for example, Perot pulled 24% of the vote--providing a safety valve for many disaffected Republicans who were not ready to vote Democratic. This year, however, Perot’s support has dropped off sharply across the country--leaving Republicans who do not want to vote for Dole contemplating Clinton as their uncomfortable protest vote.

Gary Rice, a Los Angeles County firefighter who lives in San Clemente, says a lack of enthusiasm for Dole and frustration with the political process has prompted his decision to switch his vote to Clinton. His wife is leaning that way.

“There are two major reasons I’m concerned about Dole,” she said. “One is abortion. I do believe a woman has a right to choose. The other is gun control.”

“And Dole,” Gary interjects, “supported overturning the assault-weapons ban.” That position doesn’t sit well with the Rices, particularly Debbie, who already worries about having a husband out fighting fires in a bulletproof vest.

So what political pitch or ad campaign could the GOP use to win her back? “It’s hard to say,” Debbie said. Like most voters questioned here, she faults Clinton for what she calls “the moral thing.” But she thinks she has already heard so much of the “behind-closed-doors-stuff” that she won’t be swayed if her party harps on the issue.

The problem, she says, is Dole. “If Mrs. Dole decided to run, that would probably do it for me,” she added, laughing.

More than a few Republican women find themselves being tugged into the so-called gender gap. For them, the president’s greater appeal sometimes rests on intangibles.

“Clinton comes across as kinder. Dole comes across as bad-tempered and cynical,” said Joanne Paulin, 58, as she and a friend pore over paperwork for the San Clemente Historical Society at a local coffeehouse.

Paulin, a Republican, is among those women who think that House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and the Republican-controlled 104th Congress became too “mean” and narrowly focused. “Gingrich seems to have made political gain more important than doing what is right for the country,” she said.

More important, though, “I think that Clinton has better ideas,” she added.

Paulin always liked her party’s view that welfare needs reforming. But now “Clinton preempted that. He is trying to figure out how to get people off welfare,” she said.

Nor does Paulin fault Clinton for the massive health reform proposal that foundered in Congress two years ago and which Dole increasingly has pointed to as an example of what the president might try to do in a second term. “I really, really did think that something should be done about health care,” Paulin said.

At this point, she says, she can’t imagine what the Dole campaign could do to bring her back into the fold. “I even like Mrs. Clinton. I think she’s terrific.”

In the future, Paulin says, her party needs to shake the strong influence of “the religious far right--it’s pretty scary.” Besides that, “Republicans need to show that they are concerned about middle-income issues,” she said.

Like Paulin, Republican Brian Clark, 39, is peeved about how the health care issue played out. And, like Paulin, the surfboard shaper blames Congress for the failure of health care reform.

Still, he counts himself among those disaffected Republicans who just can’t bring themselves to vote for Clinton.

On the other hand, the Dole campaign can’t take much comfort in his answer to the question of who he will vote for next month:

“Ahhh . . . , he says. “Uhhhh . . . That’s a tough one.”