Lebed’s Firing May Complicate Already Difficult U.S.-Russia Ties

Thursday’s firing of Alexander I. Lebed, Russia’s popular and controversial national security advisor, could further complicate U.S.-Russian relations at a time when political turmoil in Moscow has already made ties difficult.

Russia specialists, inside and outside the U.S. government, cited a series of potential effects of Lebed’s departure for U.S. policy, even though the former army general had no direct foreign affairs responsibilities.

Uppermost in the minds of political analysts was the potential impact of Lebed’s departure on the shaky peace he single-handedly cobbled together in Chechnya.

Although President Clinton never let the war of secession in the mainly Muslim region overshadow his support for Russian leader Boris N. Yeltsin and the reform process he advocates, the conspicuously brutal conflict was an embarrassment for the U.S. and Russia. Its apparent resolution was greeted with relief in Washington.

Although Lebed won widespread public applause in Russia for halting the Chechen combat last month, his opponents in Yeltsin’s inner circle portrayed the agreement as a sellout of Russian interests because it left open the question of Moscow’s long-term sovereignty over the region.

Russian specialists here see two Chechnya-related dangers with Lebed’s departure: His opponents could attempt to harden the terms of the accord now that he has gone, and Chechen rebel leaders could change tactics with Moscow now that the only member of the Russian hierarchy they trusted has left the scene.

“His departure is going to make resolution of that war much more difficult,” said Peter Reddaway, a George Washington University political scientist who has followed the conflict closely. “There won’t be a 180-degree change of policy in Moscow, but the momentum for settlement will go.”

While a senior State Department official expressed concern that the Chechnya settlement “could begin to unravel” without Lebed’s involvement, State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns was sending even further signals of U.S. concern on the issue.

“We hope very much, for the sake of the Russian republic and the Chechen people, that there will be no return to the bloodletting,” Burns told reporters.

Because of Lebed’s stature as one of the most popular political figures in Russia, with a strong following within the demoralized military as well as among the public, his departure may also be felt in other areas of direct interest to the United States, analysts believe.

In public statements during a visit to North Atlantic Treaty Organization headquarters in Brussels last week, for example, he appeared to break from the ranks of Moscow hard-liners who vigorously oppose the expansion of the Atlantic alliance eastward toward the Russian frontier.

“Whatever NATO decides, Russia is not going to go into hysterics,” he said.

Enlarging NATO to take in nations such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic is a central Clinton administration priority seen as necessary to add stability to the fragile new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe.

“Lebed has been a relatively moderating voice in some of these areas,” noted Coit Blacker, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Institute of International Studies, referring to NATO and Chechnya. “His departure could make some things harder.”

Another potential complicating factor for U.S. policymakers is the impact of a popular figure suddenly being outside the government at a time of such domestic turmoil.

Blacker suggested that Lebed’s departure introduces another “layer of uncertainty and volatility.”

European affairs specialist Helmut Sonnenfeldt of the Brookings Institution in Washington said it means “an added element of uncertainty” in dealing with Russia on issues such as NATO enlargement, nuclear disarmament and gaining Russian parliamentary ratification of the second Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

“This isn’t going to make matters any easier for us,” he said.

Despite these potential problems, U.S. officials sought to play down the event.

Several senior administration officials were in Moscow on Thursday, including Defense Secretary William J. Perry, who had been scheduled to meet with Lebed as part of his efforts to win support for ratification of START II.

At a news conference shortly after Lebed’s firing was made public, Perry characterized the move and the circumstances surrounding it as unsurprising in a new democracy. “We should not be surprised that there are problems as Russia emerges as a democratic state,” he said. “Our security relationship will proceed just as it has been proceeding.”

In Washington, Burns was careful to describe the firing as an internal Russian affair and predicted that Lebed’s departure will have no immediate impact on the administration’s ties with Moscow.

Marshall reported from Washington, Bennett from Moscow.