‘Soccer Dads’ Can Give Dole the Edge Here

With only two weeks remaining in the presidential campaign and a double-figure deficit in the polls to overcome, to say that Bob Dole is trying to throw the long bomb would understate exactly how difficult the task before him has become. So in an election season that has seen more than its share of football metaphors, let us find other sports analogies to describe his decision to pour his campaign’s remaining resources into California.

With the clock running down, Dole is throwing up three-pointers. He has pulled his goalie, he’s swinging for the fences, going for the knockout. He’s using the whip on the backstretch, hitting full-out on the second serve. He’s playing to fill an inside straight. California-or-bust may be a long shot, but it’s Dole’s best shot.

For months, California Republicans have been urging the Dole campaign to take the state more seriously. But, surrounded by East Coast advisors and intimidated by Clinton’s commanding lead in California polls, Dole wouldn’t fully commit to a fight here. Despite a continued tough line of talk from the candidate and his in-state advisors, a stream of whispers out of the campaign’s Washington headquarters regularly raised doubts about Dole’s intentions. Even now, questions persist about the campaign’s willingness to commit the ticket to the almost full-time schedule in the state necessary to wage an all-out fight for California’s 54 electoral votes.

There’s no question that trying to win the White House based on a California comeback is an extremely risky maneuver to attempt at this point. But it is the right thing to do, and Dole and his handlers ought to be commended for taking the risk. The only question is why they waited so long to play the California card.

Despite Clinton’s regular visits to California and his continuing advantage in state polls, his strength among California voters has always been less than meets the eye. Taking advantage of a cultural affinity with residents of the dominant media markets of Los Angeles and San Francisco, and avoiding high-profile state debates on issues like defense cutbacks, illegal immigration and racial preferences, Clinton has built his poll numbers here through a series of short, feel-good visits that have been heavy on celebrity-filled photo opportunities and generous helpings of pork-barrel largess.

Clinton’s margin in California grew over the summer during the time period in which the Dole team inexplicably allowed the campaign debate to center on abortion and tobacco. Californians are pro-choice and they don’t smoke, and weeks of television stories filled with pictures of Pat Buchanan and Butt-Man drove Clinton’s lead over the 20-point mark. But as the dialogue moved to more central issues like taxes, jobs and public safety, Dole began to close the gap and now trails Clinton by roughly 10 points here.

Faced with polls showing their candidate trailing in states previously considered to be battlegrounds, Dole’s aides have turned to California as the launching pad for their last-ditch strategy. After ignoring Gov. Pete Wilson’s suggestions for months, the campaign last week finally began to employ Wilson’s prescribed strategy of emphasizing illegal immigration and racial preferences as value-based issues that separate Clinton from the majority of California voters.

For all the recent talk about the emergence of soccer moms as a political force, veteran California politicos know that the key to GOP victory in statewide elections is counterbalancing the Democratic tilt among women with a similar Republican advantage with men. The swing Democrats who elected Reagan, Deukmejian and Wilson in years past have been predominantly white men. They are soccer dads. They supported Proposition 187. Now they support Proposition 209--and Bill Clinton. Dole’s task is to pry them loose. It’s difficult but not impossible.

All year long. Dole’s advisors have been criticized by the GOP’s strongest loyalists for running an overly safe, risk-averse campaign. Just a week or two ago, it appeared that they had chosen a “die-with-dignity” strategy, choosing to allocate their remaining resources to traditionally Republican states to shore up their electoral base and avoid a landslide defeat.

Suddenly, it looks as if California will be Dole’s fight to the finish. So, to shift the imagery from sports to war: California will be remembered as Dole’s Normandy or his Dunkirk. Either way, it’s a much better course of action than sitting around London waiting for the bombs to fall.