California May Tip Balance in U.S. House

With little more than a week to go before the election, at least 10 California congressional districts are up for grabs--a collection of hotly contested races that is the largest in the nation and that may well leave partisan control of the House of Representatives in the hands of the state’s voters.

The close races include at least three in Los Angeles County and one each in San Bernardino, Orange County and the Santa Barbara area.

Given the tightness of many of the races--and the enormous stakes riding on the decision here--both parties are preparing to pour massive resources into a final battle waged on the state’s airwaves and in its mailboxes over the next several days. Political professionals of both parties predict that $4 million will be spent by the two parties to sway the congressional races in this final week.

Outside groups will be active as well. The Christian Coalition plans to distribute a record 5 million voter guides in California--almost twice the number handed out two years ago--primarily in hopes of supporting Republican candidates. On the other side, groups including the Sierra Club, the AFL-CIO and abortion-rights activists are spending millions in support of their favored candidates--mostly Democrats.

In the fight for control of the House, “California has become the real battleground,” says Allan Hoffenblum, a Los Angeles-based longtime Republican political consultant.

Officials of both parties are, as one would expect, predicting victory. But “if there is a strong Democratic wave in California, which there well could be, that puts the Democrats a long way toward taking over the House,” said Larry Sabato, professor of government at the University of Virginia.

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That prospect is making Hoffenblum and other Republican strategists nervous, given the prospect of a large statewide victory for President Clinton at the top of the ticket.

In the past, Hoffenblum notes, Republican candidates for Congress and the state Legislature have often benefited from strong showings by GOP candidates further up the ballot. In 1992, when then-President George Bush stopped campaigning in the state early on and Clinton carried the state with a 13-point margin, Republican candidates suffered badly.

“Can we convince these independents and Republicans who are voting for Bill Clinton to come over and vote for a Republican for Congress or the Legislature?” he asks.

“There is no historic data whether they will or not. This is something that is brand new--now we’re dealing with Clinton Republicans.”

While several California seats are in play, the most closely watched races are in districts held by one veteran Democrat, George E. Brown of San Bernardino, and three Republicans--freshman Rep. Andrea Seastrand, who represents the Santa Barbara area, two-term Rep. Frank Riggs of Windsor in the state’s far north, and two-term Rep. Bill Baker in the East Bay.

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In addition, strategists from both parties are eyeing three Los Angeles County races--the rematch between Rep. Jane Harman (D) and Susan Brooks (R) in a South Bay district that was the closest contest in the nation in 1994, the battle for a seat in the San Fernando Valley and Ventura County left vacant by the retirement of Rep. Anthony Beilenson (D), and the contest between Rep. Steve Horn (R) and attorney Rick Zbur (D) in a Long Beach-centered district that Democrats hope they can recapture. A fourth contest, in the Glendale-area district left open by the retirement of Rep. Carlos Moorhead (R), seems likely to remain Republican.

In Orange County, Republican Rep. Robert K. Dornan appears to be in a tight contest with his challenger, Democratic businesswoman Loretta Sanchez. Dornan spent most of his treasure chest on a quixotic bid for the GOP presidential nomination, giving his challenger a leg up.

Sanchez has drawn the support of Dornan’s political enemies, including environmentalists, gay activists and Clinton, who recently campaigned in his district.

The district has a nominal Democratic edge, but Democratic hopes of unseating Dornan in the past have never been realized. This time, Dornan says, it “could be the fight of my life.”

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That Riggs is threatened at all by neophyte challenger Michela Alioto is a sign of hard times for the GOP, experts said.

“It’s a perfect example of how bad this cycle is for Republicans,” said independent political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. “A 28-year-old woman who knows nothing about issues and just moved to the district should not beat Frank Riggs, an incumbent congressman who has a geographic advantage and more familiarity with the issues.”

Alioto, granddaughter of former San Francisco Mayor Joseph Alioto, has been an energetic campaigner and there is no clear favorite in the race. History is not working in Riggs’ favor; the district has not returned an incumbent to Washington since 1988. (Riggs was first elected to Congress in 1990, defeated in 1992, and then returned to the House in 1994.)

Seastrand seems to be in worse shape than Riggs. Her rematch against Democratic religion professor Walter Capps has become the symbol of her party’s greater struggle to hold the House.

Labor alone is estimated to be spending $900,000 on anti-Seastrand ads. A car accident set Capps back for much of the year, but not enough to decide the race--a trouble sign for the GOP. And Clinton recently began airing advertisements in the Santa Barbara media market, hoping to boost Democratic turnout and assist Capps.

Baker’s race could also be a bellwether. He is the lone conservative from the San Francisco Bay area, with a district covering East Bay towns such as Livermore and Walnut Creek.

Wealthy former Wall Street investment banker Ellen Tauscher has run an aggressive campaign that is giving Baker the toughest race of his career. Some observers say Baker’s conservative votes on social issues may be out of step with his more moderate constituents. He opposes abortion rights and the assault weapons ban; she backs them.

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Baker has represented parts of the district for almost 16 years--12 in the state Legislature and the last four in Congress, and the area leans his way. But Democrats hope a strong tide could sweep Tauscher to victory, and Clinton is planning to visit the district this week in hopes of giving her a boost.

In hot water on the other side of the aisle is Brown, the dean of the California congressional Democrats. Being a premier Republican target is nothing new to the 76-year-old cigar-chomping liberal. The GOP has predicted his downfall for years as Brown’s margins of victory dipped below 55% when his San Bernardino County-based district was redrawn.

His challenger, Superior Court Judge Linda M. Wilde, is the first Republican woman to face Brown and one of his most outspokenly conservative challengers. They appear to be running neck andneck, and Brown did not help matters much earlier this month when, in the course of a debate, he remarked: “I imagine Linda, because she is a lady, is afraid of math.” The audience groaned. Wilde shot back: “This is not the man who used to represent you. . . . He’s desperate.”

In Los Angeles County and neighboring Ventura County, Republicans had strong hopes of picking up a seat when Beilenson, a Woodland Hills Democrat, called it quits. But the race to succeed him now appears to be a tossup.

Rich Sybert, a toy company executive and former member of Gov. Pete Wilson’s administration, came within a whisker of beating Beilenson two years ago. His prospects seemed rosy this time around until a couple of miscues--and energetic campaigning by Democrat Brad Sherman--tightened the match.

Casting himself as a moderate in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans, Sybert’s political mail featured retired Gen. Colin Powell as his key supporter--until Powell disavowed any endorsement.

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Sherman immediately pounced on the issue, dispatching a brochure to more than 100,000 voters: “If Rich Sybert will lie to you about Gen. Powell, he will lie to you about anything.”

Sherman has also managed to keep pace with Sybert’s fund-raising, in part by dumping $390,000 of his own money into the race. And he has reserved four times as much cash as Sybert to woo voters in the final weeks of the close contest.

The outcome appears slightly more certain in Moorhead’s old district, where the Republican, former municipal judge and current Assemblyman James Rogan, has a modest edge over the Democrat, millionaire businessman Doug Kahn, an heir to the Annenberg fortune.

The district, covering parts of Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena and surrounding communities, leans Republican, although Clinton carried it in 1992.

Republicans also once had strong hopes of unseating Harman, who was a loser on election night two years ago and eventually held her seat by only 812 votes after a tabulation of absentee ballots.

This year is a rematch with Brooks, but although Democrats are likely to do better statewide than in 1994, Harman appears to have the upper hand. Her courtship of the district’s defense contractors, moderate voting record and considerable personal wealth have elevated her prospects from a tossup to favorable, although her edge in this quirky battleground is hardly commanding.

Democrats, meantime, continue to hope for an upset of Horn, a former Cal State Long Beach president. He has managed to survive in a Democratic district by purveying a set of moderate Republican views somewhat to the left of Speaker Newt Gingrich’s edgy conservatism. Something of a surprise when he won in 1992, Horn has forged a thoughtful, professorial political persona that seems to play well.

His challenger is Rick Zbur, an environmental attorney, who, should he win, would be the first gay House member from any state to declare his sexual orientation before his first election. The issue has not loomed large in the campaign. Zbur has concentrated on trying to link Horn with Gingrich, arguing that the incumbent talks moderation in California, but votes the party line in Washington.

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Republicans believe Zbur will come across as too liberal in a district that is well stocked with conservative, blue-collar Democrats, but at least some Democratic strategists believe a strong Democratic turnout, and antipathy to Gingrich, could help pull Zbur over the top.

Two remaining districts are likely to stay with the incumbent, but the fact that both remain question marks indicates how close the overall election remains.

One is the seat held by veteran Rep. Vic Fazio, the most endangered senior Democrat in Congress.

Fazio has been accustomed to living in the GOP cross-hairs since his West Sacramento Valley district was redrawn, trading liberal urbanites for conservative suburban and rural voters.

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His rematch against 35-year-old Realtor Tim LeFever has drawn national attention. Recent polls show Fazio pulling ahead, but Republicans are expected to continue pushing for LeFever because a Fazio defeat would be a major blow to the Democrats.

The other is Rep. Brian P. Bilbray’s 49th District in San Diego, where UC Irvine economics professor Peter Navarro is doing well enough to make the freshman incumbent nervous. Bilbray started the year on Democratic hit lists and remains vulnerable, although Navarro is hardly considered a strong candidate, having lost a bid for San Diego mayor in 1992.

Bilbray, a vocal supporter of the “contract with America,” has an advantage. “He’s the superior candidate,” Rothenberg said. “He’s the favorite. He should win. If he doesn’t, it’s a terrible year for Republicans.”

Times staff writers Janet Hook and Gebe Martinez in Washington, Dave Lesher and Bill Stall in Sacramento and Kenneth R. Weiss in Ventura contributed to this story.

* DOLE BLITZES CALIFORNIA

GOP nominee rolls through Central Valley. A12

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California’s Closest House Races

Control of the U.S. House of Representatives may come down to the outcome of 10 California races. Two of the hottest contests to watch involve Republican Reps. Frank Riggs and Andrea Seastrand.

1. North Coast: Rep. Frank Riggs (R) vs. Michela Alioto (D)

3. Sacramento Valley: Rep. Vic Fazio (D) vs. Tim LeFever (R)

10. San Francisco Bay Area: Rep. Bill Baker (R) vs. Ellen Tauscher (D)

22. Santa Barbara Area: Rep. Andrea Seastrand (R) vs. Walter Capps (D)

24. S.F. Valley-Thousand Oaks: Brad Sherman (D) vs. Rich Sybert (R)

36. L.A. County-South Bay: Rep. Jane Harman (D) vs. Susan Brooks (R)

38. L.A. County-Long Beach: Rep. Steve Horn (R) vs. Rick Zbur (D)

42. San Bernardino County: Rep. George Brown (D) vs. Linda Wilde (R)

46. Orange County: Rep. Robert Dornan (R) vs. Loretta Sanchez (D)

49. San Diego County: Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) vs. Peter Navarro (D)