California Seen as Crucial to House Control

And so, the final chapter in the story about Campaign ’96 will be written in California.

Bob Dole, the man from Kansas who went to Washington, has placed his last hopes for the White House on voters in the Golden State. Equally important, experts say the choice between a Republican- or Democratic-run U.S. House could be determined late Tuesday night in the results from a few select California neighborhoods.

California’s vote is considered so crucial in selecting the nation’s leadership that political parties, candidates and special interests are spending a combined total of about $30 million to make their case in the final weeks alone. That’s about $2 for every California voter.

“California is seen as the linchpin,” said Jim Pinkerton, a GOP consultant in Washington. “Since the ‘60s--since candidate Nixon--the Sunbelt Republican strategy has depended on California.”

In fact, if reelected, Bill Clinton and Al Gore will be the first presidential ticket without a Californian to carry the state as it wins a second term since Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Harry Truman did it in 1944.

But perhaps the most persuasive argument made for a major political blitz in California is in Congress. The outcome of about a dozen California races--including the local race between longtime incumbent Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) and Democratic challenger Loretta Sanchez--is so close that experts believe they could be decided by the local tilt on the presidential contenders.

It is the largest cluster of tossup races for Congress in the country. And they are scattered in nearly every corner of California.

Four pitched battles are in Los Angeles County--two for the vacancies left by a retiring Republican and a retiring Democrat. A pair of longtime veterans--Dornan, a conservative from Orange County and the other a liberal from San Bernardino--are in danger. On the coast, from Santa Barbara to the Bay Area to Eureka, three conservative incumbents are battling liberal challengers.

The stakes are so high in these congressional races that some political observers believe Dole’s final stand in California is really to benefit the House Republicans, not the slim hopes of the presidential campaign.

“The Dole campaign is reinforcing the Republican base,” said Gary C. Jacobson, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “They are not going to win the state, but they are aiming to solidify the rest of the ticket and bring a higher voter turnout.”

California has long been an uphill battle for Dole, according to opinion polls. Clinton has worked as hard as any president in history to win California’s approval. His most recent California visit was his 29th as president--an average of about one stop every seven weeks he’s been in office.

That attention might reflect the fact that political strategists believe a Democrat cannot win the White House if he is rejected by California. Traditionally, no other part of the country can be counted on to make up California’s huge prize of 54 electoral votes--nearly one-fifth of the total needed for election.

Republicans rate California a slightly lower priority because of the GOP’s strong base of support in the South. This year, however, Dole has found that Republican-friendly places such as Georgia and Florida are leaning to Clinton.

As a result, in the final campaign stretch, Dole strategists have put all their hopes in a come-from-behind bomb pass into the California end zone.

That decision was made final on Oct. 16. Seated around a starched-linen table at a closed restaurant overlooking the San Diego Marriott Hotel’s afternoon sunbathers, the Dole campaign team from Washington talked strategy with the California Republican leadership--Gov. Pete Wilson, Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren and state party Chairman John Herrington.

Wilson repeated his belief that the key to winning California is to emphasize positions against illegal immigration and affirmative action. In both cases, the governor noted, Republicans are on the popular side of the issues and Democrats look defensive.

Within days, both issues moved to the forefront of the Republican strategy as speech topics and television commercials. Party leaders hope that the issues will also boost their candidates up and down the ticket. But so far, the congressional candidates tend to be running as free agents, stressing a variety of local and national issues.

In the otherwise little-noticed 10th District east of San Francisco Bay, Bill Baker, a two-term Republican from Danville, is being outspent 2 to 1 by Democrat Ellen Tauscher, a wealthy investment banker who last week dumped $1.4 million of her own money into her campaign. That brings her resources to about $2.1 million--about double Baker’s campaign.

The first woman ever to sit on the New York Stock Exchange, Tauscher has run an aggressive campaign denouncing Baker’s conservative votes on social issues that critics say are out of step with his more moderate constituents. The lone conservative from the Bay Area, Baker is against abortion rights and the assault weapons ban--issues Tauscher supports.

Politically, the district leans toward Baker, who has represented it nearly 16 years--the first 12 in the state Legislature. But experts say a strong Democratic tide could nudge Tauscher to victory. Also on the ballot are Libertarian Gregory K. Lyon, Natural Law Party candidate Valerie Janlois and Reform Party candidate John Place.

Another threatened Northern California Republican is Rep. Frank Riggs of Windsor, whose district of lush forests and rocky shorelines is the most fickle in the state.

Riggs won the 1st District in 1990, lost it in 1992 and won again in 1994. He is on the ropes again, this time at the hands of 28-year-old Democrat Michela Alioto, who stands out for two reasons: She was disabled as a teenager in a ski accident and is the granddaughter of a former San Francisco mayor.

The environment is a critical issue in this district, which includes the big coastal counties of Mendocino, Humboldt and Del Norte. The Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters vowed to spend more than $1 million in this and five other Western races.

As in Baker’s district, experts note that voter registration in this area tilts Republican, although maybe not enough to overcome a national Democratic surge. Also on the ballot is Libertarian candidate Emil Rossi from Boonville.

Perhaps the most suspenseful race is in Santa Barbara’s 22nd District. Freshman Republican Rep. Andrea Seastrand is in a dead heat with an old foe, Democrat Walter Capps.

Capps, a UC Santa Barbara religion professor, lost to Seastrand in 1994 by a mere 1,563 votes. Now, this race is seen nationally as a referendum on the aggressive freshman class and an example of the ideological clash between the two parties. Also on the ballot are independent Steven Wheeler, Natural Law Party candidate Dawn Tomastik, Reform Party candidate Richard D. “Dick” Porter, and Libertarian candidate David L. Bersohn.

Two other long-serving incumbents are struggling for their seats, Democratic Rep. George E. Brown of Bakersfield--an unabashed progressive and lifelong politician at age 76--and Dornan, the vitriolic conservative who was sanctioned by his colleagues last year for calling the president a traitor on the House floor.

The GOP has been after Brown for years since his San Bernardino County-based 42nd District was redrawn. Supporters say his endurance is a tribute to his advocacy of science and technology development, jobs and devoted service to constituents who appreciate his attention to their needs and forgive his broader liberal views.

He faces 39-year-old Republican Linda Wilde, a Superior Court judge, who articulately espouses the most conservative of her party’s causes. “I don’t know of another race in the country that offers a clearer choice between old-time liberalism and where this country is now going,” House Speaker Newt Gingrich recently told a Wilde fund-raiser. The candidates appear to be running neck-and-neck.

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In Los Angeles and Ventura counties, Republicans had high hopes of picking up the 24th District seat vacated when Democratic Rep. Anthony C. Beilenson of Woodland Hills stepped down this year. But the race to succeed him is a tossup. Rich Sybert, a toy company executive and former member of Gov. Pete Wilson’s administration, nearly beat Beilenson two years ago and looked like a shoo-in until aggressive campaigning by Democrat Brad Sherman, a CPA and member of the State Board of Equalization, tightened the match. Also on the ballot are Libertarian Erich Miller from Reseda, Natural Law candidate Ronald Lawrence from Malibu, and Peace and Freedom candidate Ralph Shroyer of Woodland Hills.

The GOP seems more likely to hold onto the 27th District seat being vacated by Rep. Carlos Moorhead in the district that covers parts of Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena and surrounding communities. Voters there lean Republican. Assemblyman James Rogan, a Republican, has a slight edge over the Democrat, millionaire businessman Dough Kahn, an heir to the Annenberg fortune. Also on the ballot are Libertarian candidate Elizabeth Michael of Burbank, Green Party candidate Walt Contreras Sheasby and Natural Law candidate Martin Zucker of Los Angeles.

Democrats are hoping to unseat one of the GOP’s most moderate members, Rep. Steve Horn of Long Beach--a former Cal State Long Beach president--whose professorial demeanor has played well in the 38th District, which is Democratic by registration. His challenger is Rick Zbur, an environmental attorney who would be the first gay House member from any state to declare his sexual orientation before his first election. Zbur has tried to link Horn with Gingrich. Even gay rights groups have endorsed Horn in the past. But Zbur is a strong, articulate candidate and Democrats are itching for an upset. Also on the ballot are Libertarian Paul N. Gautreau of Beverly Hills and Green Party candidate William A. Yeager of Long Beach.

In a 36th District rematch, Democratic Rep. Jane Harman of Rolling Hills is challenged by Republican Susan Brooks, the small business owner who nearly beat her in 1994 in the closest race in the country--812 votes. Harman appears to have the edge, but in the quirky district that runs along the Pacific Coast from Venice Beach to San Pedro, the lead is hardly substantial. Also on the ballot are Libertarian Bruce Dovner of Torrance and Natural Law candidate Bradley McManus of Manhattan Beach.

Incumbents appear to be strong favorites in 13 other races for Congress in Los Angeles County. They include:

Rep. Elton Gallegly, a five-term Republican from Simi Valley, is seeking reelection in the 23rd District. It comprises 80% of Ventura County, including the cities of Ventura, Oxnard, Simi Valley, Camarillo and Santa Paula. Opposing him are retired teacher Robert H. Unruhe, a Democrat from Ojai; administrator Stephen Hospodar of the Natural Law Party from Carpinteria, and registered nurse Gail Lightfoot, a Libertarian from Pismo Beach.

Rep. Howard P. “Buck” McKeon, a two-term Republican from Santa Clarita, is seeking reelection in the 25th District. The northern Los Angeles County district includes Lancaster and Palmdale. Opposing him are homemaker Diane Trautman, a Democrat from Santa Clarita; small business owner Bruce Acker of Chatsworth, and Peace and Freedom candidate Justin Charles Gerber from South Gate.

Rep. Howard L. Berman, a seven-term Democrat from Panorama City, is seeking reelection in the 26th District. The San Fernando Valley district includes Van Nuys, Sylmar, Pacoima, San Fernando and Sun Valley. Opposing him are accountant Bill Glass, a Republican from Sherman Oaks; administrator Gary Hearne of the Natural Law Party from Los Angeles, and business owner Scott K. Fritschler, a Libertarian from North Hills.

Rep. David Dreier, an eight-term Republican from Covina, is seeking reelection in the 28th District. The San Gabriel Valley district includes part of eastern Pasadena, Sierra Madre, Arcadia, Monrovia, Covina, San Dimas, La Verne, Claremont, Temple City, West Covina, Duarte, Bradbury and Walnut. Opposing him are college history teacher David Levering, a Democrat from Claremont, and contractor Ken Saurenman, a Libertarian from Pasadena.

Rep. Henry A. Waxman, an 11-term Democrat from Los Angeles, is seeking reelection in the 29th District. The west Los Angeles County district includes Santa Monica, West Hollywood and Beverly Hills. Opposing him is Republican Paul Stepanek, a businessman from Los Angeles; Libertarian Mike Binkley, a computer software engineer from Los Angeles; Peace and Freedom candidate John Peter Daly, a HIV/AIDS educator from Los Angeles, and Natural Law candidate Brian Rees, a physician from Los Angeles.

Rep. Xavier Becerra, a two-term Democrat from Los Angeles, is seeking reelection in the 30th District. The central, east and southeast Los Angeles district starts just west of downtown and includes Koreatown, Eagle Rock, Lincoln Heights, Boyle Heights and Mt. Washington. Opposing him are legal secretary Patricia Jean Parker, a Republican from Los Angeles; teacher Pam Probst, a Libertarian from Los Angeles; educator Rosemary Watson-Frith of the Natural Law Party from Eagle Rock, and water safety instructor Shirley Mandel of the Peace and Freedom Party from Los Angeles.

Rep. Matthew G. Martinez, a seven-term Democrat from Monterey Park, is seeking reelection in the 31st District. The San Gabriel Valley district includes Monterey Park, San Gabriel, Rosemead, South El Monte, El Monte, Baldwin Park, Irwindale and Azusa. Opposing him are human resources administrator John V. Flores, a Republican from City of Commerce, and businessman Michael B. Everling, a Libertarian from Los Angeles.

Rep. Julian C. Dixon, a nine-term Democrat from Los Angeles, is seeking reelection in the 32nd District. The district begins a mile inland from Venice Beach, runs east through Culver City and ends up in South-Central Los Angeles. Opposing him are businessman Larry Ardito, a Republican from Culver City; businessman Rashied Jibri of the Natural Law Party from Lakewood, and self-employed teacher Neal Donner, a Libertarian from Los Angeles.

Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard, a second-term Democrat from Bell Gardens, is seeking reelection in the 33th District. The east-central Los Angeles County district includes Bell Gardens, Maywood and City of Commerce. Opposing her is John P. Leonard, a Republican accountant from Bell Gardens, and Libertarian lawyer Howard Johnson from Stanton.

Rep. Esteban E. Torres, a seven-term Democrat from West Covina, is seeking reelection in the 34th District. The east Los Angeles County district includes Montebello, Pico Rivera, Norwalk and La Puente. Opposing him is Republican David G. Nunez, a manufacturer from Stanton; Libertarian David Argall, a businessman from La Puente, and American Independent J. Walter Scott, a retired salesman from La Puente.

Rep. Maxine Waters, a third-term Democrat from Los Angeles, is seeking reelection in the 35th District. The South-Central Los Angeles County district includes Inglewood, Hawthorne and Gardena. Opposing her is Eric Carlson, a Republican business owner, and American Independent Gordon Michael Mego, a mechanical engineer from Hawthorne.

Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald, a first-term Democrat from Carson, is seeking reelection in the 37th District. The southern Los Angeles County district includes Compton and Carson. Opposing her is Republican businessman Michael E. Voetee from Signal Hill.

Rep. Ed Royce, a two-term Republican from Fullerton, is seeking reelection in the 39th District. It straddles the line between Los Angeles and Orange counties and includes La Habra Heights, Whittier and Hawaiian Gardens. Opposing him are Democrat R.O. “Bob” Davis, a Buena Park retiree, and Libertarian Jack Dean of Fullerton.

Rep. Jay C. Kim, a two-term Republican from Diamond Bar, is seeking reelection in the 41st District. It straddles parts of Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties, Diamond Bar, part of Walnut and Pomona. Opposing him are lawyer Richard L. Waldron, a Democrat from Anaheim; businessman Richard G. Newhouse, a Libertarian from Garden Grove, and golf course owner David F. Kramer of the Natural Law Party from Chino Hills.

Times staff writer James Bornemeier and researcher D’Jamila Salem-Fitzgerald contributed to this story.