Optimism, Moderation Power Clinton’s Victory

With his sweeping victory over Bob Dole on Tuesday, President Clinton laid claim to a broad-based political coalition that unified the Democratic Party to an extraordinary degree while expanding his reach into the center of the electorate, according to a Times exit poll of voters nationwide.

Clinton ran up larger margins than he did in 1992 among core Democratic groups like women, minorities and low-income voters; battled Dole virtually to a dead heat among many ordinarily Republican-leaning groups like men and whites; and, perhaps most important, dominated Dole among both moderates and independents, traditionally the swing vote in presidential elections.

Just as Clinton four years ago benefited from a widespread sense of dissatisfaction with the nation’s direction, this time he rose on a widening sense of optimism: A narrow majority of those voting Tuesday said they considered the nation to be on the right track, and they gave an overwhelming three-fourths of their vote to the incumbent.

Dole’s sharp attack on Clinton’s ethics and the news media in the campaign’s final days reversed some of the inroads that surveys had shown the president making even late into October with Republicans and conservatives. But Clinton rode to victory behind virtually unified support among Democrats and the clear lead among independents that he has enjoyed in polls since his showdown with congressional Republicans over the federal budget last winter.

Indeed, in a year when surveys have displayed a remarkably stable lead for the president, the exit poll underscored the conclusion that this campaign was over almost before it began: Half of all voters said they had decided on their candidate before the primaries even commenced last winter, and more than three-fifths had made up their minds by the time the primaries concluded.

Nearly three-fifths of those early-deciding voters backed Clinton. That placed Dole in an inescapable hole, despite a year of increasingly frantic campaigning capped by his final 96-hour marathon.

Perot’s Showing

The Times exit poll, supervised by acting poll director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 7,294 voters as they left 100 polling places nationwide and an additional 40 in California on Tuesday; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Compared to 1992, Ross Perot’s appeal significantly narrowed, the survey found. Four years ago, he won more than one-third of independents, nearly 1 in 5 Republicans, and about 1 in 8 Democrats. This time, his vote was confined almost entirely to independents: Perot carried about 1 in 5 of those voters, compared to just 1 in 20 Republicans and the same ratio among Democrats.

By contrast, Clinton’s support was broadly based--as it had been in surveys all year. He carried all age groups, and voters at all income levels except those earning $75,000 or more. Voters with a high school education or less, less than four years in college, and postgraduate degrees all gave Clinton strong margins; he even narrowly carried college graduates, who ordinarily lean strongly toward the GOP.

Catholic voters, who bolstered the GOP during the 1980s, also gave Clinton a 55% to 34% majority of their votes. And Clinton enjoyed a crushing 58% to 33% advantage over Dole among women, with Perot winning just 8%. Men tilted slightly toward Clinton, with 45% backing the president, 42% Dole, and 11% Perot. Compared to 1992, Clinton’s vote among men improved only slightly, but he jumped fully 14 percentage points among women.

California Parallels

In almost all respects, the results in California followed the national pattern, with Clinton combining near-unanimous support among Democrats and a clear lead among independents for his victory, the survey found. After a campaign in which Dole embraced many conservative themes on immigration, Clinton enjoyed a greater than 4-to-1 lead among Latinos in the state, while breaking even with whites, holding a solid advantage among Asians, and collecting almost 90% of the votes of African-Americans.

In the national survey, the gender division established the basic pattern of the election: With groups that Republicans usually dominate, Clinton in most cases held down his losses. At the same time, the president ran up the score among groups that lean toward Democrats, and tilted swing groups in his direction.

The regional results fit into that pattern. Voters in the East, which is emerging as a powerful base for Democrats in presidential campaigns, preferred Clinton over Dole by a resounding 2-to-1 margin. Clinton ran almost as strongly in the Midwest, running up a clear majority. By contrast, in the South and West, where Republicans have had the upper hand for most of the last quarter-century, the two men battled almost evenly.

The same pattern--Clinton holding down his losses and exploiting his advantages--shaped the result among one of the most hotly contested groups in the election, married voters. Traditionally, they have provided substantial margins to Republican presidential contenders. But Clinton laid siege to them all year with a seemingly endless array of policies tailored toward parents--from tax cuts for education, to the V-chip for controlling television content, and new restrictions on tobacco advertising.

Democratic Gains

In the end, Clinton managed only a slim advantage among married voters. But even that represented a significant improvement from most Democratic nominees. While Dole held on to the allegiance of married men, and married women who stay at home, Clinton broke through to carry married mothers who work outside the home--the principal target for his “tools” for parents strategy.

As Clinton’s strategists had long argued, even a narrow advantage among married voters was enough to ensure victory because the president retained the traditional Democratic lead among single voters, carrying that group by more than 2 to 1. Single women, who are becoming almost as reliably Democratic as minorities, preferred Clinton over Dole by more than 3 to 1.

Clinton ran respectably among other categories of voters that have leaned toward the GOP, though he surrendered some of the gains he seemed poised to make earlier in the fall. After trailing in surveys a few weeks ago, Dole carried voters who attend church regularly, though only narrowly; Clinton led convincingly among those who only infrequently, or never, attend church.

On the other hand, in the campaign’s last days, Clinton seemed to lose ground among other groups that have been central to the GOP coalition. Surveys this fall had shown Clinton winning as much as one-third of white evangelical Christians, but in the end, he received slightly less than the one-fourth of their votes he attracted in 1992. Gun owners and white men--two reliable Republican groups who had leaned toward Clinton in some earlier polls--both gave Dole a clear advantage in the end, the survey found.

Clinton’s inroads among conservatives also receded in the campaign’s last days; in the end he attracted only about 1 in 5 self-identified conservatives, with Dole holding about 70%.

Likewise, Dole consolidated his position among GOP partisans. For most of the year, surveys have shown Dole winning about 75% (and sometimes even less) of Republicans. But with his pointedly ideological final burst, Dole pushed down the president’s overall vote among Republicans to about 1 in 10.

But Dole could neither shake Clinton’s hold over centrist voters nor induce any measurable defection among Democrats. Among Democratic presidential candidates since 1952, only Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 has carried a majority of independents; in 1992, independents split almost evenly among Clinton, Bush and Perot, with the network exit polls showing Clinton with a slight advantage, and the Times’ survey giving Perot a razor-thin edge.

This time, Clinton ran up a clear lead among independents, with a double-digit margin over Dole comparable to Johnson’s 12-point advantage over Barry Goldwater with these swing voters in 1964--the largest Democratic lead among independents ever recorded in polling. Self-described moderate voters gave Clinton an even more pronounced lead of more than 2 to 1 over Dole.

Young Voters

Just as he enlarged his margins with women compared to 1992, Clinton also significantly widened his advantage among several other Democratic-leaning groups, including blacks, Latinos, liberals, and voters with a high school education or less. Clinton also improved his total with young voters.

Overall, in the survey, Clinton won support from nearly 9 in 10 Democrats: That’s as high a level of support among Democrats for their presidential nominee as Gallup Poll election surveys have ever recorded. Even among Democrats who call themselves moderate or conservative, more than 8 in 10 stayed with the president, the survey found.

The trend toward partisan loyalty was evident also in congressional races. In the abstract, a majority of those surveyed said they preferred that control of Congress and the White House be divided between the parties rather than unified in one of them. But, in practice, voters generally didn’t behave that way.

Nearly 90% of Clinton voters backed Democrats for Congress, the survey found; likewise, nearly 90% of Dole voters backed Republicans. Only independents split their tickets, giving Clinton a clear lead in the presidential race and dividing almost evenly for Congress. Perot supporters leaned strongly toward Republicans in the congressional races.

One cloud hanging over Clinton in the survey is continuing doubts about his honesty and integrity. Voters who said those characteristics were the things they liked most about their candidate preferred Dole over the president by more than 8 to 1.

Honesty Discounted

But only about 1 in 6 voters cited honesty as a major influence on their vote. And when asked directly which candidate was more likely to keep their word as president, voters split evenly between Clinton and Dole, with one-fourth saying neither could be trusted, the survey found.

Clinton rang up huge advantages over Dole among voters who cited vision, understanding the problems of average families, and caring about ordinary people. Dole led strongly among voters who said they preferred their candidate because “he has values like mine,” ran even with the president among those who said they were looking for “strong leadership qualities” and a candidate who could handle a crisis, and, interestingly, finished just behind Clinton among those who said their top priority was someone who “has the experience to be president.”

Asked what issues affected their votes, Clinton and Dole voters presented a striking contrast. A head-turning 69% of Dole voters cited “moral and ethical values” as a principal factor in their vote, far more than anything else. Taxes was a distant second at 27%, followed by the economy.

Domestic Issues

Clinton voters, by contrast, were overwhelmingly focused on domestic issues, with half citing the economy, nearly 4 in 10 picking education (compared to just 1 in 9 Dole voters) and about 1 in 5 highlighting health care (an issue raised by just 1 in 20 Dole voters.) Perot supporters cited values and the economy.

Voters divided almost evenly when asked whether they were more concerned that Clinton would go too far “in increasing government spending and taxes” or that Dole would “go too far in reducing needed government programs.” On the other hand, voters expressed a clear preference when asked what the top priority should be for improving the economy: Just under half said reducing the deficit, while about 30% said increasing spending on “things like education, public works and research,” and 22% cited cutting taxes.

Though the cornerstone of Dole’s agenda was a 15% tax cut, even Dole voters, by almost 2 to 1, placed more priority on balancing the budget than cutting taxes.

Times Poll consultants Dwight Morris and Monika McDermott contributed to this account.

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The Message Behind the Votes

A Times exit poll surveyed 7,294 Americans when they left the polls Tuesday. Almost two-thirds of the electorate voted for their candidate because they really liked him: More than 7 out of 10 Bill Clinton voters like their candidate best, while 61% of Bob Dole’s voters like him best. A majority of the electorate believes that the country is going in the right direction. Clinton voters think the country is headed in the right direction, while Dole’s voters say the country is seriously off on the wrong track.

WHY DID YOU SUPPORT YOUR PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE TODAY?

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Clinton Dole Perot voters voters voters I like him and his policies 70% 61% 41% He’s the best of a bad lot 29 36 26 To send a protest message 1 3 33

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*

WHAT DID YOU LIKE MOST ABOUT YOUR PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE?

(2 responses accepted)

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Clinton Dole Perot voters voters voters He cares about people like me 28% 9% 24% He has the experience to be president 28 33 5 He thinks like me on the issues 14 12 18 He doesn’t waffle on the issues 2 6 15 He has strong leadership qualities 18 24 17 He has a clear vision of the future 16 4 18 He has values like mine 6 21 9 I trust him to handle a crisis 7 9 4 He has honesty and integrity 3 34 17 He understands the problems of American families 25 6 22 None of the above 10 8 10

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WHICH ISSUES WERE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN DECIDING HOW YOU WOULD VOTE FOR PRESIDENT?

(2 responses accepted)

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Clinton Dole Perot voters voters voters Moral and ethical values 15% 69% 43% Education 37 11 15 Jobs/The economy 51 20 38 The environment 9 2 2 Taxes 9 27 17 Abortion 7 14 5 Health care 22 5 8 Poverty 5 1 2 Federal budget deficit 9 14 25 Crime/Drugs 8 5 6 Foreign affairs 2 4 3 None of the above 3 3 5

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WHICH OF THESE THINGS HAD A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON YOUR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT?

(3 responses accepted)

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Clinton Dole Perot voters voters voters Candidate stood up to the Republican Congress 39% 5% 7% Candidate will sign bills passed by a Republican Congress 11 30 3 Candidate’s economic proposals 31 29 43 Ethical allegations against Clinton & his administration 4 49 29 My opinion of Newt Gingrich 23 5 10 My opinion of Al Gore 11 4 4 My opinion of Jack Kemp 2 15 2 Democratic Party is too liberal 2 39 12 Republican Party is too conservative 27 1 8 The broadcast debates 9 5 13 Negative campaigning by the candidates 18 5 31 None of the above 14 11 18

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WHO IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP HIS WORD AS PRESIDENT?

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Clinton Dole Perot voters voters voters Bill Clinton 67% 1% 5% Bob Dole 3 89 11 Both 8 2 3 Neither 22 8 81

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DO YOU THINK THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY ARE GENERALLY:

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Clinton Dole Perot voters voters voters Going in the right direction 79% 28% 25% Seriously off on the wrong track 21 72 75

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OVER THE PAST FOUR YEARS, HAS YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION:

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Clinton Dole Perot voters voters voters Gotten better 49% 19% 21% Stayed the same 40 49 35 Gotten worse 11 32 44

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Note: Numbers may add up to more than 100% where more than one response was accepted. All figures reflect preliminary exit poll results.

Source: Los Angeles Times exit poll conducted Nov. 5

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 5,063 voters who cast ballots in the general election Tuesday as they exited 100 polling places across the nation. Also interviewed were 2,231 Californians as they exited an additional 40 polling places across the state. Precincts were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past general elections. The survey was a self-administered, confidential questionnaire. The margin of sampling error for all is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For some subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher.