Now the Men-in-Waiting Start Duking It Out

Most elections confer power. This one divided it among four elected officials. The two who seem strongest may well be the shakiest, which makes the role of the other two even more fascinating.

Second terms historically have been less than productive, and Bill Clinton faces several unusual handicaps. He is the first Democratic president ever to be elected with an opposition-controlled Congress, one that will hold him to his pledge to have a balanced budget within reach by the end of his term. So he will be operating with both fiscal and political constraints. He badly needs to restaff and rehabilitate the White House and Cabinet, suffering from exhaustion and, in too many cases, ethical taints. And he faces a sea of legal troubles.

If he chose to, Clinton could commiserate with Newt Gingrich, the second of the badly wounded winners in Tuesday’s voting. Gingrich is in line to be the first Republican in almost seven decades to preside over successive Congresses. But the exit polls showed that twice as many voters disapprove of his performance as commend it. I think Gingrich is capable of refashioning his approach to his job and becoming a more effective, if less visible, leader of the House. But it is not a safe bet that he will have the chance. The House Ethics Committee investigation of financial matters involved in the welter of supportive organizations Gingrich formed on his way to the top has taken a very serious turn.

That leaves two other power-sharers, whose influence almost certainly will grow over the next four years. One is Vice President Al Gore, the man-in-waiting for the presidential nomination in 2000. He will inevitably become the magnet for ambitious Democratic politicians, staff members and interest group leaders. His clout in the White House is already considerable.

And the other, least known to the public, is Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, now out from under the shadow of Bob Dole and free to exercise his considerable skills both inside the Senate and on the television talk-show stage. Lott leads an enlarged Senate GOP majority--one in which Southerners and fellow conservatives will play an even bigger role. He is aiming for a filibuster-proof, 60-vote majority in 1998, which would allow the GOP to press its agenda in the final two years of Clinton’s term. But in the meantime, he may well be the most cunning adversary the Democrats face.