Travel Industry Is Going Places, Report Predicts

Fueled by a bumper crop of vacationing baby boomers and international visitors, U.S. travel industry employment will outpace the economy at large and grow more than 18% by 2005, according to a report to be released today by the Travel Industry Assn. of America.

The Washington-based trade association estimates that nearly 7.5 million people will be directly employed in travel and tourism jobs by 2005, compared with 6.3 million in 1994, the base year the association examined to make its projections. Total U.S. employment is expected to grow 14.9% over the same period.

Economists say the rosy tourism picture will translate into robust job growth in California, where tourism already is the state’s third-largest employer, behind health care and business services. Last year, tourism provided jobs for more than 650,000 in the state.

“This is very good news for California,” said Bill Evans, director of economic research for the association. “This says a crucial segment of the state’s economy will continue to prosper.”

The forecast mirrors recent tourism employment gains in Southern California. In Orange County,for example, 4,200 tourism-related jobs were added between October 1995 and October 1996, bringing countywide tourism employment to 132,900. That 3.3% growth rate outstripped the county’s 2.5% average growth rate for all industries, according to the most recent statistics from the California Employment Development Department.

Los Angeles County added 7,000 tourism-related jobs over the same period, bringing tourism employment there to 334,200 jobs.

So what’s fueling all the tourism job growth in California and nationwide?

In the short run, experts say the healthy economy, perky consumer confidence and an absence of natural disasters contributed to the Golden State’s rebound from the tourist slump of the early 1990s.

Demographics and global economics will drive the industry’s long-term employment gains. Evans says America’s baby boomers will be hitting their peak travel years in the coming decade, demanding more hotel rooms, rental cars, airplane seats--and workers to help them relax.

Likewise, the fast-growing economies of Asia and South America are expected to send a slew of new international visitors to U.S. shores.

Although many of the tourism jobs created in California and nationwide will be low-wage, entry level positions, the association projects that executive positions in the industry will jump by nearly 31% by 2005.

In 1994, about 685,000 workers held executive, managerial or administrative jobs in four key segments of the industry: air transportation, lodging, food service and amusement/recreation services. Evans expects that number to reach nearly 900,000 by 2005.

Likewise, small businesses will continue to multiply, from bed-and-breakfast inns to mom-and-pop gift shops, says Tiffany Urness, research manager for the California Division of Tourism.

“This is not an industry with just a few large employers and thousands of low-paid employees,” Urness said. “We are talking about a lot of family-owned businesses, small tour operators and other entrepreneurs who will find good opportunities as the industry expands.”