Who Will Be the First to Erupt?

In July, Universal fired first in the battle of the dueling volcano movies, taking out a splashy ad in Variety heralding the March 7, 1997, release date of “Dante’s Peak.” Since then, 20th Century Fox has leapfrogged its competitor, indicating that its “Volcano” would surface seven days before.

Both are locked in a furious post-production schedule, and though industry insiders expect one to blink, the studios are standing firm.

“It’s a fairly daunting prospect,” acknowledges “Dante’s Peak” director Roger Donaldson (“No Way Out”). “I don’t want to put all this effort into a movie and see it written off because we don’t come out first. I’d be a liar if I said that I’m not being pressured from marketing people to get the movie out. But we’ve both agreed not to compromise the picture because we’ve been pushed into a corner by Fox.”

Universal is spending nearly $100 million to make “Dante’s Peak,” starring Pierce Brosnan as a volcanologist and Linda Hamilton as the mayor deciding whether to evacuate a Pacific Northwest town. After the movie got the go-ahead last April, Joe Singer--a producer along with Gale Anne Hurd--forecast that Fox would fold since Universal had staked out the turf.

Fox, however, pressed ahead with its disaster movie, initially budgeted at $70 million, in which molten lava threatens Los Angeles.

Even before the mega-success of this past summer’s “Twister” and “Independence Day,” the appeal of crowd-pleasing spectacles with eye-popping special effects was clear. Since earthquakes and tornadoes had already been taken, Hollywood was on the lookout for the next marketable natural disaster. Two volcano scripts circulating within months of each other fit the bill.

The budget of “Volcano”--directed by Mick Jackson (“The Bodyguard”) and starring Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Heche--has crept up “a bit,” acknowledges executive producer Lauren Shuler-Donner. But contrary to industry speculation, she maintains, it is “nowhere near the $100-million mark.” Shooting began in July, a month after the Universal project went before the cameras.

Despite what Shuler-Donner calls an inadequate 12-week pre-production period, “Volcano” wrapped in mid-October--only two days late. After six months of preparation, the Universal film stayed on-budget and on-schedule, finishing the 115-day shoot on Nov. 6.

Though both movies sound quite similar, the studios take pains to differentiate the two. Universal says its project is a “character-oriented” adventure, while Tom Sherak, senior executive vice president of Fox Filmed Entertainment, calls “Volcano” “sort of Irwin Allenish . . . a ‘Towering Inferno’-type film.” Donaldson, a former geology student, aims to make his “reality-based.” “Volcano”--like the Fox blockbuster “Independence Day”--has been described as an over-the-top ensemble piece, more escapist in tone.

“I don’t feel competitive with ‘Dante’s Peak,’ ” said Shuler-Donner, who turned down an offer to produce “Dante’s Peak” because of an apparent scheduling conflict. “Theirs is adventure-oriented while ours is a disaster film in which competitive city departments and ethnic groups come together to fight an urban volcano. While it would be nice to be first, it’s not a driving desire. With enough space between them, the market can bear both.”

And there’s yet another contender for the volcano crowd--albeit on television. ABC’s “Fire on the Mountain,” the tale of a long-dormant volcano awakening at a ski resort, is starting to shoot this week. If the movie meets its projected February air date, it will beat out the other two.

Sherak compares the situation to a giant poker game. Though some criticize Fox’s decision to open seven days before Universal, it made perfect business sense, he says.

“With two similarly themed movies, it’s important to be first--and with the reissue of the ‘Star Wars’ trilogy on Jan. 31, Feb. 21 and March 7, we didn’t want to compete with ourselves,” he said. “Besides, that slot isn’t uncharted waters: ‘The Hunt for Red October’ opened during the first week of March to great success--with almost three months of playing time before the summer rush.”

The presence of films with comparable subject matter is not a new phenomenon. Moviegoers had their fill of Wyatt Earp pictures when “Wyatt Earp” (1994) hit the marketplace six months after “Tombstone,” and of Christopher Columbus epics, when “Christopher Columbus: The Discovery” and “1492: Conquest of Paradise” were released within two months of each other in 1992.

In some cases, the last released was by far the most successful. “The Abyss” outdid the underwater sagas “Deep Star Six” and “Leviathan,” while “Babe” far surpassed the pig movie “Gordy” last year. Most notably, “Big,” the story of a boy who finds himself in a man’s body, overwhelmed “Vice Versa” and “Like Father, Like Son” at the box office.

“Coming out ahead of the competition gives you a cleaner opportunity to present your movie,” acknowledged Buffy Shutt, president of marketing at Universal. “But there’s a huge audience for upscale ‘event’ movies these days. And as we learned from [John Grisham’s] ‘The Chamber’--a big disappointment [grossing only $14 million] in an unusually packed fall--it’s easier to distinguish yourself in a less crowded marketplace.”

Some still speculate, however, that Universal is positioning itself to come out ahead--possibly on Feb. 14. Sources say the studio recently added several million dollars to its original deal with the special-effects house Digital Domain--a move seen as incentive to step up the pace.

Not so, says Casey Silver, chairman of the MCA Motion Picture Group. “Redoing the deal was an effort to enhance some of the more spectacular sequences--not a matter of moving faster,” he said. “We’re investing more in the quality of the picture, which is the ultimate determinant of success. I don’t want to lead with my chin and beat my breast but ‘Dante’s Peak’ is going to be a hell of a film. Two similarly themed movies add a level of complication. But being first isn’t what counts--being profitable is.”

Another industry executive seconds the notion. “ ‘Dante’s Peak’ was first but it’s a predatory world out there,” he said. “Whoever makes money makes money. . . . There’s no moral high ground.”

While big budgets add to the risk, analysts say, they can also enhance the rate of return. Special-effects-laden action films often do even better abroad than at home. “Independence Day” has taken in $400 million foreign--with Japan yet to open--compared to $305 million domestically.

While Silver has no plans to move up the release date, he “makes no promises,” either. Any move by the competition would force a reassessment, Sherak responds.

With teaser trailers for both movies due to appear in the next few weeks, Donaldson is working around the clock--only six days a week to avoid burnout, he explains. “When I came aboard a year ago, we were aiming for a May release, so even March 7 is tight,” he said. “Though Universal and I are leaning on each other, you can’t cut a picture in a week. This business is full of directors who get beaten up because there’s no time to do things right. Fox, in fact, may be trying to get us to move to an earlier date that works against our interest.”

If the current release schedule holds, Universal will be placed in a strange situation, Shutt points out.

“The first movie--whoever releases it--has to be satisfying or people will be reluctant to take a chance on the other,” she said. “That puts us in the odd position of rooting for the competition.”