British, Irish Premiers Make No Progress on N. Ireland

On a joyful, crystal-clear night one year ago, President Clinton lighted a Christmas tree in downtown Belfast that symbolized glowing hopes for peace in tormented Northern Ireland. This Christmas, those dreams are as tarnished as old tinsel.

In a meeting appropriately delayed by fog, the British and Irish governments’ architects of peace conferred here Monday without markedly bridging the differences between them or mollifying Roman Catholic and Protestant adversaries in the British province.

Irish Prime Minister John Bruton and British Prime Minister John Major had little progress to report after lunching at Downing Street over the Northern Ireland question in a search for a new cease-fire and meaningful talks.

Meanwhile, British intelligence sources warn of likely pre-Christmas terrorist attacks by the Irish Republican Army. And republican sources fuel the gloom by ruling out a Christmas truce, which the IRA has traditionally declared during its nearly three-decade struggle to overthrow British control of the northern six counties of Ireland.

Sinn Fein, the IRA’s political wing, says it should be admitted to talks as soon as there is a cease-fire. Bruton is open to persuasion. Major is not.

“If the IRA makes the necessary efforts . . . to convince all concerned that this time there’s no turning back to violence, yes, I believe Sinn Fein should be quickly admitted to talks,” Bruton said.

Major says the IRA was duplicitous, planning to end an original cease-fire even as Clinton visited the Northern Ireland capital. Any new promise to end violence must be verified before Sinn Fein is welcome to talk peace, Major says.

“We were told repeatedly during the last cease-fire that the cease-fire was for good. The bomb and the gun had gone forever, we were told, time after time. . . . Not only have we discovered that it wasn’t true . . . they were planning to return to violence at the same time that they said it,” said Major with Bruton at his side.

The IRA broke a 17-month cease-fire in February with a truck bomb that killed two men and did millions of dollars in damage in the Docklands section of London. Attacks since have included mortar fire against a British army base in Germany, a bomb in downtown Manchester and a blast in the largest army base in Northern Ireland.

Street violence over Protestant marches through Catholic areas during the summer eroded goodwill that flowered during Clinton’s visit, and security forces say that other major attacks have been short-circuited only by raids that netted terrorists and large quantities of arms and explosives.

Gerry Adams, leader of Sinn Fein, urged Major and Bruton on Monday to “bridge the gap of distrust” and breathe life into a rudderless peace process overseen by frustrated Clinton envoy George J. Mitchell, the former Senate majority leader.

Catholic militants accuse Major of bad faith--”begrudgery” is the word often used. They say he has repeatedly altered goals, establishing new conditions for all-party talks that effectively exclude Sinn Fein. Britain, the militants say, seeks not a negotiated settlement but a victory at the peace table it could not win on the battlefield.

Neither Major nor the Protestant majority in Northern Ireland is buying any of that. If Sinn Fein is to be seated at peace talks, Major says, the IRA must declare a “genuine and credible” cease-fire that includes an end to arms purchases, to surveillance of potential targets and to vigilante beatings.

The initial cease-fire was a ruse, Major argued in a weekend British television interview. “I’m not going down a fake path again . . . and have Sinn Fein parachuted into the talks without actually giving up the violence,” he said.

In the careful maneuvering that won the initial cease-fire, Major cajoled suspicious Protestant unionists while Bruton sweet-talked skeptical Catholic nationalists. With the peace initiative stalled, moderate Catholic politician John Hume suggested last month after talks with Adams that Sinn Fein be seated in exchange for a new cease-fire. Major refused and angered Bruton by issuing stiff requirements for Sinn Fein participation without consulting Dublin.

In overwhelming numbers, people in both communities of Northern Ireland tell pollsters they want peace. Sadly, the big question now is when more violence will occur. Last week, three mortars and 34 incendiary devices were seized by police in republican West Belfast, and the IRA’s Belfast Brigade has been authorized to launch attacks, according to sources in the divided city.

“The intelligence boys are worried. All indicators point to more violence before Christmas,” said one analyst.

The British press has reported on two IRA units supposedly at large on the British mainland, each with five to 10 members, and both armed with weapons and explosives.