Illegal Immigrant Population in U.S. Now Tops 5 Million

A steady influx of illegal immigrants has swollen the nation’s undocumented population to more than 5 million, approaching peak levels reached a decade ago before a government amnesty program drove the numbers down, according to new Immigration and Naturalization Service estimates released Friday.

California is by far the most popular destination of illegal immigrants, the INS found, providing a home for more than 2 million--40% of the national total. Most settle in Southern California, officials said, cementing Los Angeles County’s position as the national hub for illegal immigration.

About 6.3% of the California population is undocumented, the INS said, compared to 3.7% in Texas, the state with the next largest total. Nationally, illegal immigrants compose 1.9% of the population.

Gov. Pete Wilson seized on the numbers as evidence that the Clinton administration has been underestimating the impact of illegal immigration here--an assertion denied by the White House. Wilson renewed his call on Washington to reimburse the state for money spent on prisons, health care, education and other “crushing costs associated with providing services to illegal aliens.”

The new estimates highlight the crucial role in immigration policy played by Mexico, the birthplace of 54.1% of all illegal immigrants in the United States. Next on the list, but far behind, is El Salvador with 6.7%, followed by Guatemala with 3.3% and Canada, 2.1%.

The new figures are based on an analysis of INS and census data rather than a precise head count and are billed as the most systematic government effort ever to count the nation’s undocumented population. The estimate is likely to help shape the contentious national debate over immigration and provide a baseline for future strategies at a time when Congress is considering new control measures.

“It’s important to have a kind of reality check to the rhetorical guesses that have long been presented about the size of this population,” said Hans Johnson, a demographer who has studied the issue with the Public Policy Institute of California, an independent private research group.

Estimates of the illegal immigrant population have fluctuated widely--at times between 2 million and 12 million--in a vivid illustration of how difficult it is to count a group that by definition is highly mobile and avoids official contacts.

The current nationwide illegal immigrant total of more than 5 million begins to approach the record 6 million in early 1987, before the kickoff of the amnesty program created by the landmark Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. Some 3 million illegal immigrants were granted amnesty under the program, drastically reducing the stock of undocumented residents.

Recently, INS officials had generally estimated the undocumented population as somewhere above 4 million nationwide, but Friday’s number of 5 million--about the population of Maryland--is the agency’s most detailed contemporary count.

The figures underscore how ever-escalating enforcement efforts have failed to halt the massive transnational movement of humanity--mostly composed of Third World peoples seeking improved economic horizons.

Also failing to halt the migration are what many view as increasing publicly backed anti-immigrant measures, embodied by California’s Proposition 187, which sought to bar illegal immigrants from public schools and most public services.

“These numbers show that this is a long-term, entrenched flow,” said Robert Bach, INS executive associate commissioner for policy and planning. “Illegal immigration has been a long-standing problem, and controlling it requires long-term solutions.”

However, officials cautioned that the estimates are averaged over several years and do not accurately gauge the impact of Operation Gatekeeper, the ongoing enforcement buildup along the U.S.-Mexico border in San Diego.

Overall, the INS estimates that the number of unauthorized residents who enter and remain for more than 12 months--an accepted international definition for an immigrant, as opposed to a temporary migrant--continues to grow at a brisk pace, about 275,000 annually. Although high, the number is somewhat down from earlier INS estimates of 300,000.

“This notion that we’re getting a new tidal wave just isn’t borne out by the data,” said Cecilia Munoz of the National Council of La Raza, a Latino rights group based in Washington that closely follows immigration policy.

The INS found that almost 60% of all illegal immigrants entered the country without inspection--usually via the U.S.-Mexico border--while the remainder overstayed the terms of their entry visas. In an earlier study, the INS said the split was closer to 50-50.

In a vivid illustration of regional differences, the vast majority of illegal immigrants in New York had overstayed their visas--exactly the opposite of California, where most are border-jumpers.

The INS found that more than 80% of the undocumented live in seven states: California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey and Arizona.

Sensitive to criticism of Clinton administration policies, INS officials stressed that the size of the undocumented population in the fall of 1992 represented 80% of the current total.

But critics of the government’s approach said the increasing numbers illustrate the lack of sincere commitment to enforcement--particularly away from the border, at work sites that provide the jobs drawing most immigrants.

“What this says is that border enforcement is only part of the solution to illegal immigration,” said Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington-based group that seeks to reduce overall immigration. “The border can never be completely shut down.”

The new estimates, said U.S. Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-Ventura), dramatize the need for more focus on the economic lures, especially jobs, that drive illegal immigration.

“People aren’t coming here because of our beaches,” said Gallegly, who sits on the House subcommittee that oversees immigration policy. “It’s an economic issue.”

INS officials have pushed for more stringent enforcement against employers who provide jobs to illegal immigrants. But, Bach noted, Congress has been largely unwilling to fund such efforts, which are unpopular with business groups.

Times staff writer Greg Norman in Washington contributed to this story.