Voting Analysis Finds Catholics Remaining in Democratic Fold

A new analysis of Catholic voting concludes that the Democratic Party will probably continue to enjoy the kind of success President Clinton had in November, especially in California, with its growing Latino population.

For much of this century, Catholics identified strongly with the Democratic Party, but Republicans turned the tide when Ronald Reagan carried the Catholic vote in 1980 and 1984, George Bush captured it in 1988, and the GOP won over Catholics in the 1994 congressional elections.

Last year, however, Clinton recaptured the Catholic vote 52% to 37% over Bob Dole, evidence that Democrats may have rebuilt a constituency in that church of women, Latino, the young and working-class and middle-class voters, according to two scholars at Catholic University of America in Washington.

“The Republican anti-immigration strategy has assured the Democrats of continued strong support from the Hispanics, barring some unforeseen misadventure,” wrote political scientist John K. White and religion sociologist William V. D’Antonio in the National Catholic Reporter, a weekly newspaper published in Kansas City, Mo.

The two Catholic University professors also said the Democrats’ emphasis on Medicare, Medicaid, education and the environment strikes a chord with social themes that are typically Catholic.

“Catholics have long shared with Jews a special concern for community, for the commonweal,” White and D’Antonio wrote.

“One can find in the 1996 elections evidence that Catholics, to the degree they feel economically secure, are willing to shoulder social responsibilities as they enjoy more and more personal achievement in income, education and occupation.”

Agreeing with their conclusions, Patrick Nichelson, a Cal State Northridge professor of religious studies, said he believes that the old Catholic bloc that once voted heavily for Democrats fell apart during the anti-Vietnam War protests of the late 1960s and early 1970s, which many Catholics saw as unpatriotic. They were also offended by the abortion rights advocacy associated with Democrats, he said.

“But in recent years, I think Catholics have gone back to making a distinction between public and private philosophy,” said Nichelson, a onetime Catholic seminarian.

“They don’t reject wholesale a politician who is pro-choice because they see that the essence of the politician’s job is working out public policy for the common good--fair taxation, treating the immigrant humanely, for instance.”

Some political and religious analysts have said lately that it is meaningless to speak of “the Catholic vote” because Catholics--one-quarter of the nation’s population--are liberal on some issues and conservative on others, often aligning themselves with Republicans in opposing abortion rights.

But White and D’Antonio suggested that abortion is not always a winning issue for Republicans courting Catholics, based on exit polling last November. They said 59% of those who called themselves Catholic believe that abortion should be always or mostly legal, while 37% said it should be always or mostly illegal.

“Thus, when candidate Clinton proclaimed that abortion should be ‘safe, legal and rare,’ he was expressing the sentiments of a majority of Catholics on this sensitive issue,” said the Catholic University scholars.

A more dynamic factor is the nationwide growth of Latino Catholics, who gave the Clinton-Gore ticket 81% of their vote.

“Ask Bob Dornan about them,” said Msgr. E. James Petersen, who represents the interests of California Catholic bishops in Sacramento, referring to the longtime Orange County congressman who was defeated in November by Latina Democrat Loretta Sanchez.

“The Spanish-speaking leadership in the church at the parish level is on a conscious march to get people naturalized and registered,” Petersen said.

That was illustrated in late October at Mary Immaculate Catholic Church in Pacoima, where absentee ballot forms were distributed one Sunday by volunteers from a group called Valley Organized in Community Efforts. Fliers passed out had the word “no” marked beside Proposition 209, the state anti-affirmative action initiative, which nonetheless won voter approval Nov. 5.

Historically, American Catholics tended to side with the Democratic Party because of great numbers of blue-collar workers and immigrants. But as many Catholics became more educated and received higher incomes, they tended to favor Republicans and conservative ballot issues.

“The traditional Catholic association with the working class and immigrant class has been partly restored because of the constant stream of new immigrants,” Nichelson said.

“For a half-generation or more, we can probably count on an increasingly Democratic vote--until they get big-time money and become Republican.”