Executives Optimistic About Orange County’s Recovery

Any doubts that Orange County’s economy is growing and prospering have all but vanished, replaced by a brimming optimism about the future, UC Irvine economists said Tuesday in their annual executive study.

The 222 county executives surveyed were more upbeat about a wide range of economic issues than at any time in the study’s 11-year history, economists said.

Executives were bullish about prospects for their corporations’ financial performance, expansion and job growth while playing down the likelihood of relocating, downsizing and laying off workers. Overall, 41% of those responding judged the county a more attractive place to do business, up from 29% last year.

The proportion of businesses expecting to expand in the next five years reached 80%, the highest level since the survey began.

More than half of the respondents expected to hire more workers this year, the most buoyant employment outlook since 1988. Only 8%, the lowest rate ever, expected to reduce their work forces.

The forecast translates into 48,000 new jobs in the county this year, a 4% increase, said Dennis Aigner, dean of UCI’s Graduate School of Management.

The county economy has not only recovered from the recession of the early 1990s, “but has switched into high gear,” Aigner told a crowd of business people gathered on the UCI campus Tuesday to hear the survey results. Many said they were pleased with the findings, and hoped they’d help call attention to the county’s vibrant economy.

Orange County “is not really on the [national] map yet,” said Mark S. Stewart, president of Trademark Investments Inc., an Irvine-based investment firm. “I think that’s going to change.”

The growing importance of international trade was also stressed, particularly among high-tech companies, which derive an average of 30% of their revenues overseas. Within five years, 56% of Orange County firms expect to be serving international markets, compared to 44% today, the survey found.

The municipal bankruptcy, a key concern in the last two surveys, was cited by only 13% of executives as a serious problem for the county.

One survey respondent, Jerry W. Carlton, a managing partner at O’Melveny & Myers in Newport Beach, said the positive attitude about county businesses is evident in the activity at his law firm.

“We spend a lot of time helping people raise money,” he said. “We’ve never been busier in the corporate and corporate securities area.”