Adult Smoking Rises Sharply in California

Smoking among California adults, which was dropping for more than a decade, rose sharply in 1996 to 18.6% of the adult population, and smoking among teenagers shows signs of future increases, a new study by state health department and university researchers shows.

Smoking rates in the state have fallen from just over 25% of the adult population in the late 1980s to a low point of 16.7% in 1995. The rebound in the percentage of smokers is in contrast to national smoking rates, which have been holding steady for four years, albeit at a rate higher than California’s. Nationwide, about 25% of the adult population smokes.

In addition to the rise among adults, the research also includes findings that point toward possible future increases among children. The percentage of children considered “susceptible” to smoking has increased to 45% from 25% a few years ago, researchers determined.

Smoking among adults continued its overall decline among whites and Latinos. But the new surveys show that smoking increases were particularly evident among African Americans and Asian Americans. In addition, smoking increased among people who have less than a high school education and are between the ages of 18-24 and among men ages 35-44.

“Clearly, smoking has stopped its decline in California,” William Wright, a researcher for the state Department of Health Services, said, predicting that the rise will continue for at least another six months to a year, and possibly longer. “Something really has happened.”

While they said they were unsure why smoking had gone up in California, researchers cited a variety of possible explanations: increased and more effective tobacco industry marketing, more portrayals of smokers in television shows and movies, and a view that cigars have become chic.

“We knew we weren’t doing well. We didn’t think we were doing this badly,” said Jennie Cook, chairwoman of the state’s Tobacco Education and Research Committee, to which researchers presented their findings. The panel oversees California’s anti-tobacco education, advertising and research efforts funded by the state’s 25-cent-per-cigarette-pack tax.

The rise in smoking translates into significant profits for tobacco companies. Stanton Glantz, a leader in the anti-smoking movement and a professor at UC San Francisco Medical School, said the data mean that tobacco companies sold 200 million packs of cigarettes more than they would have sold if smoking had remained flat.

“The thing that happened is the bad guys won,” Glantz said. “The question is, is it going to turn around?”

About 26.7% of Californians smoked in 1988, the year that voters approved the tobacco tax initiative, Proposition 99. Proposition 99 added 25 cents to the cost of a pack of cigarettes and funded the most aggressive anti-tobacco education and advertising campaign ever undertaken by a state.

John Pierce, one of the authors of the survey of 78,000 Californians and a UC San Diego professor, called the survey’s results “alarming,” and said the goal established by the Legislature in the 1980s of cutting smoking by 75% over an 11-year period ending in 1999 will not be met.

“We’re nowhere near it,” Pierce said.

The state Department of Health Services conducted separate telephone surveys of 8,000 adults and 2,000 children, ages 12-17.

Smoking among youths had been as low as 8.7% in 1992. But starting in 1994, smoking among teenagers rose to a high of 11.9% in 1995.

In 1996, the percentage of teenagers admitting to surveyors that they smoke was 11.6%. Although that reflects a small decrease, state health authorities say the drop is not statistically significant.

“It has essentially flattened off,” said William Johnson of the state Department of Health Services. “It is encouraging that it hasn’t shown an increase, but discouraging that it hasn’t gone the other way.”

More significant, however, Pierce and Elizabeth Gilpin, also of UC San Diego’s tobacco research center, said their survey shows that increasing numbers of teenagers view smoking as acceptable.

When they conducted their survey in 1993, they identified 25% to 30% of the teenagers they interviewed as being “susceptible” to smoking. In 1996, that number had risen to 45%.

“It made me stop and kind of catch my breath,” Gilpin said. “We’re losing it now. It almost makes me want to cry.”

Gilpin and Pierce define youths as being “susceptible” to starting smoking when they give an equivocal answer to a question such as, “Would you smoke a cigarette if your best friend offered it to you?”

By this standard, girls and Asian Americans were deemed to be most susceptible. But the increase extends to all segments of teenagers, including those who view themselves as the best students.

Pierce said the number of 17-year-olds addicted to cigarettes increased from 9.9% in 1993 to 12% in 1996. He defines addicted smokers as those who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes, and says research shows that the vast majority will need 16 to 20 years to quit.

Anti-tobacco leaders, shocked at the new figures, were quick to blame the state Legislature and Gov. Pete Wilson, attributing the rise to the efforts to divert more than $60 million from anti-tobacco campaigns to general health programs during the recession.

“It’s a lot worse than I thought it was going to be,” said Roman Bowser, chief executive officer of the American Heart Assn. in California. “It shows the governor has destroyed the [anti-tobacco] program.”

Alan C. Henderson, president-elect of the American Cancer Society of California, said: “We need to take out the politics. The Legislature and the governor need to wake up and smell the secondhand smoke. This is an embarrassment to the state that has been the leader in fighting tobacco.”

After delays and a lawsuit by anti-tobacco groups to force the state to fully fund the program, the Wilson administration launched a $22-million anti-tobacco advertising campaign last week, airing the first new ads it has produced since September 1995.

The administration has vowed to spend $67 million over the next three years on its advertising campaign to battle tobacco.

Wilson’s deputy chief of staff, Sean Walsh, scoffed at “Chicken Little-like comments made by zealots in the anti-smoking community.”

“Here’s the issue: California under Pete Wilson has the toughest anti-smoking laws in the country. California under Pete Wilson has the lowest percentage of smokers of any state in the country, with the exception of Utah,” Walsh said.

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More Smoking in California

The California Department of Health Services monitors smoking among adults and youths ages 12 to 17 through a telephone survey of about 8,000 adults and 2,000 youths each year. Here are the agency’s estimates of the percentage of smokers:

‘96

Adults: 19%

Youth: 12%*

* Not considered a statistically significant change.

Source: California Dept. of Health Services