Riordan Leads Hayden, as L.A. Racial Divide Grows

As the race for mayor of Los Angeles enters its final days, Richard Riordan enjoys a commanding lead over state Sen. Tom Hayden, but the city that both candidates seek to govern is cleaved by a stark racial divide that could further complicate its next mayor’s job.

According to a new Times poll, Riordan has the support of 57% of the city’s likely voters and is picking up backers as election day nears. What’s more, the mayor has a high approval rating and is widely considered to be a strong, honest man capable of spurring economic prosperity.

Hayden, meanwhile, is drawing more favorable impressions than he did at the campaign’s outset, but remains far behind the mayor and is showing only marginal success at closing the gap. Although 48% of registered voters said they had a favorable sense of Hayden--up notably from 32% two months ago--only 35% of likely voters said they were prepared to vote for him over Riordan.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,103 adults, including 811 regular voters and 243 likely voters, in the city of Los Angeles from March 22 through March 27. According to poll director Susan Pinkus, the survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for questions probing the views of all registered voters. For questions analyzing the attitudes of likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus six points.

Bolstered by an electorate that seems satisfied with the direction of the city’s economy, Riordan leads among nearly every ethnic and demographic group polled. A majority of whites and a plurality of Latinos favor Riordan’s reelection, and the incumbent enjoys his strongest backing on the Westside and in the San Fernando Valley, though he also leads Hayden in the central city.

But for the incumbent, the latest poll also contains unsettling news: In overwhelming numbers, African American respondents have turned against Riordan in recent weeks and now say they oppose his reelection, in part because many resent the role they believe the mayor played in denying Police Chief Willie L. Williams a second term.

Hayden, by contrast, endorsed Williams, saying that dropping the chief without a second term was a racially insensitive and provocative move. Although Hayden’s public backing for Williams did not convince city leaders to overturn the Police Commission’s decision, the senator’s statements and his determined campaigning in black communities appear to have bolstered his political fortunes.

Two months ago, 33% of the black voters polled said they had a favorable impression of Hayden; in the latest poll, 71% voiced that view.

Riordan, who two months ago enjoyed a positive image among 36% of blacks polled and was regarded unfavorably by 38%, now is considered with far greater suspicion. Sixty-two percent of the black voters surveyed said they have an unfavorable impression of the city’s incumbent mayor, compared to 32% who regarded him favorably. They are the only ethnic group surveyed that reported greater negative impressions of Riordan than positive ones.

The sweep of African American anger at Riordan cuts across feelings toward him in area after area: Majorities of black registered voters surveyed by The Times said they consider Hayden stronger, more forthright, more honest and more capable in virtually every category of governing, from strengthening race relations to holding down crime.

“What’s Riordan done for us?” asked Johnny Lewis, one of several poll respondents who agreed to follow-up interviews. “Nothing.”

Like many other black voters who were surveyed, Lewis said he was particularly peeved by his belief that Riordan helped orchestrate Williams’ downfall.

“He set up those people to go against the man,” Lewis said. “They used that man and cut him loose. That’s not right.”

Riordan was thoroughly beaten among black voters by City Councilman Michael Woo in the 1993 mayor’s race. But polls since then had shown his popularity improving among African Americans, and Riordan corralled the endorsements of many prominent blacks long before Hayden entered the current campaign. As a result, some Riordan aides hoped he could significantly improve his black support this time, and possibly even carry that community--a tremendous political feat for a Republican candidate, even in a race for a nonpartisan post such as the mayor’s office.

The Williams issue and Hayden’s campaign have dealt a setback to that plan, however, and now it would take a dramatic turnaround for Riordan to regain the support among blacks that he has lost in recent weeks.

On March 10, the Los Angeles Police Commission, whose members were appointed by Riordan and confirmed by the City Council, rejected Williams’ application for a second term. The chief’s supporters mounted a brief effort to persuade the City Council to overturn that decision, but gave up once it became obvious that Williams lacked the support of that body for such a move.

Williams has long been popular, however, and many of those surveyed expressed unhappiness with the decision to let him go without a second term. All told, 49% of those polled said they opposed the commission’s decision not to rehire Williams, compared to 37% who agreed with that move.

Williams is the first African American to head the LAPD, and 85% of the black voters surveyed disagreed with the decision not to rehire him; only 11% agreed with it. By contrast, 46% of whites agreed with the commission, and 39% disagreed. Latinos fell between the other ethnic groups, with 37% supporting the commission, and 47% opposing it.

Support for Williams runs so high among black voters that they listed the issue of his reappointment as the third most pressing in the city, trailing only crime and education, and edging out jobs.

“Williams came here under a ball of fire,” said Donald Barrett, a poll respondent who lives in South Los Angeles. “He did a good job, on a scale of 1 to 100, I’d say about a 75. They should’ve let him go a little longer.”

Barrett said he believed Riordan meddled in the decision regarding the chief’s future, and added that that was part of why he was backing Riordan’s opponent. “I don’t really know too much about Hayden,” he said. “It’s just that I don’t like Riordan.”

Except for its galvanizing effect on black voters, however, the Williams issue does not seem to have had a direct impact on many of those who are expected to go to the polls next week to pick a mayor for the city. Even though 55% of those polled said they believed Riordan played some role in ousting Williams, 69% said the mayor’s position on the issue would not affect their vote for him; 58% said the same of Hayden.

By contrast, more than two-thirds of black respondents who believe Riordan was behind the Williams ouster said they intend to vote for Hayden.

The general unhappiness with Riordan among the black respondents in the poll seems to have had little effect on his campaign style. Thursday night, he joined leaders of the African American Chamber of Commerce for a black-tie dinner at a downtown hotel. He mingled easily with the predominantly black crowd, and guests lined up two and three deep for a chance to shake his hand or talk with him.

Asked whether he felt uncomfortable among black constituents in the days and weeks after the Williams decision, Riordan emphatically said no.

“I have respect for these people, and they have respect for me,” he said, gesturing across the ballroom. “I love that.”

While Riordan has seen his support in the black community plummet, he remains strong throughout the rest of the city, holding his own and even building his base despite an aggressive campaign by Hayden.

“I’d vote for him,” said Walter Daub, a poll respondent from the San Fernando Valley. “I figure Riordan’s done all right, and I don’t know much that I like about Hayden.”

Whites strongly back Riordan, as they did in 1993. In the new poll, 58% of the white registered voters surveyed said they preferred Riordan in the mayor’s race, compared to 20% who picked Hayden. And Latino registered voters, who have been the focus of considerable attention by both mayoral candidates, are remaining largely loyal to Riordan. According to the poll, 46% of Latino registered voters favor Riordan, while 33% back the challenger.

Although Latinos historically have not voted in large numbers, their support is important to both candidates for reasons that are partly political and partly psychological. Hayden is proud of his long support for migrant farm workers, and Riordan has donated millions of dollars to educational programs, many of them focused in Latino communities. As a result, both men have worked hard to secure support among Latino voters, a task that Riordan so far seems to be winning.

In general, Riordan’s campaign also is benefiting by a feeling that the city’s economy is on the right track. Although poll respondents split evenly on the question of how they perceived the city’s health, those numbers are a vast improvement over the sentiments expressed early in Riordan’s term, when just over 20% of respondents said they believed things were “very well” or “pretty well.” In the latest poll, 48% expressed that opinion, while an identical percentage said things were going “pretty badly” or “very badly.”

Similarly, 55% of those polled responded that they believe the city remains mired in recession. Although that represents a majority of the sample, it also represents a significant rebound from 1994, when a Times poll found that 72% of residents believed the city was in recession.

But Riordan’s views are not always in tune with the electorate’s, particularly on the controversial topic of a city ordinance to pay workers a so-called living wage.

Hayden has emerged as one of that proposal’s most vocal champions, while Riordan has expressed support for the concept but not for the notion of the government intervening to impose it. Riordan vetoed the ordinance last week, a move that invites an almost-certain City Council vote to override him.

On that issue, Hayden seems far more in touch with the city electorate: 70% of those polled said they supported the living wage ordinance, compared to 24% who opposed it.

And 36% said they were more likely to vote for Hayden because of his position on that issue; only 23% said Riordan’s position would make them more inclined to vote for him.

On another hot topic in civic affairs, the move to rewrite the Los Angeles City Charter, Riordan has more support. The poll found that many city voters still remain undecided about that issue, but the proposal to draft a new charter, which enjoys Riordan’s political and financial backing, was favored by 48% of likely voters; 33% said they were opposed.

The charter reform issue also appears on the April 8 ballot.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Race for City Hall

With nine days until the election, incumbent Richard Riordan leads easily over state Sen. Tom Hayden.

If the election were held today, for whom would you vote (among likely voters)?

Riordan: 57%

Hayden: 35%

Undecided: 8%

****

(among registered voters)

*--*

Riordan Hayden Und. Whites 58% 20% 22% Blacks 17% 63% 20% Latinos 46% 33% 21%

*--*

Source: Los Angeles Times poll taken March 22 through March 27.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Job Approval

With less than two weeks to go in the citywide mayoral election, incumbent Richard Riordan maintains a solid lead over challenger Tom Hayden. Riordan’s popularity remains high and a majority consider him the best candidate for the job on most issues affecting the city.

Riordan’s job approval rating (among all respondents)

Now

58% approve

28% disapprove

****

Who would do the better job of (among registered voters):

*--*

Riordan Hayden Promoting economic prosperity? 63% 23% Understanding the city’s needs? 51% 28% Holding down crime? 49% 26% Improving the city’s public schools? 38% 36% Improving race relations? 30% 45%

*--*

****

Police approval ratings:

Chief Willie Williams

*--*

All Respondents Registered Voters Approve 63% 58% Disapprove 27% 30% Don’t Know 10% 12% Police Commission Approve 43% 41% Disapprove 34% 42% Don’t Know 23% 17%

*--*

****

Most voters who agree with the Police Commission’s decision not to rehire Williams say they will vote for Riordan; those who disagree prefer Hayden.

*--*

Agree With Decision Disagree With Decision Riordan 61% 36% Hayden 19% 44% Undecided 20% 20%

*--*

****

Did Riordan play a role in the Police Commission’s decision on Williams? (among registered voters)

*--*

Whites Blacks Latinos All Registered Voters Major Role 27% 73% 38% 37% Minor Role 19% 12% 21% 18% No Role 23% 7% 20% 19% Don’t Know 31% 8% 21% 26%

*--*

****

Do you agree with the Police Commission’s decision not to renew Chief Williams’ contract?

*--*

All Respondents Registered Voters Agree 37% 42% Disagree 49% 48% Don’t Know 14% 10%

*--*

Note: Numbers may not add to 100% where “Don’t know” responses are not shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

Times Poll data can also be accessed on the World Wide Web at https://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEW/POLLS/

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,103 adults in the city of Los Angeles, including 811 registered voters and 243 likely voters, by telephone March 22 through March 27. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges citywide. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, area of city and registration. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for likely voters it is 6; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Asian American residents were included in the survey’s sampling design in proportion to their size in the city, but were too small a group to analyze separately. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.