Sanchez Gains Voter Favor, Poll Shows

If a new election were held today, Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) would again defeat Republican Robert K. Dornan, but this time the margin would probably be far greater than in November, according to a Times Orange County poll conducted this week.

Dornan, whose charges of widespread fraud have prompted a congressional investigation, was particularly unpopular among Latino voters.

An 18-year veteran of Congress, Dornan lost to Sanchez by 984 votes out of more than 93,000 cast in the central county region that includes parts of Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove and Westminster. He immediately complained that the election was marred by fraud, including voting by noncitizens, double voting and other irregularities, which sparked state and local criminal investigations.

Support for Dornan appears to have eroded since November’s election cliffhanger, according to the poll, which was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. Among all voters in the district, 49% said they would choose Sanchez in a new election, while 36% would vote for Dornan. An additional 15% said they were undecided or would vote for another candidate.

Only 22% of Latinos supported Dornan, while 66% supported Sanchez.

The margin tightened to 47% for Sanchez and 39% for Dornan among likely voters, or those who have voted frequently in the past four years. However, as pollster Baldassare pointed out, that category does not take into account new citizens, who could be highly motivated to vote in a special election and who appear to overwhelmingly favor Sanchez.

“Nobody really knows if, in a special election, you would have some new dynamic taking place because of highly mobilized new citizens,” Baldassare said.

Among the 1,000 registered voters of the 46th Congressional District polled in the telephone survey, support for a special election was weak: Half thought it was a bad idea, 37% favored it and 12% were unsure.

Many interviewed by The Times objected to the high cost of a special election, particularly because the congressional term lasts only two years.

But 62% approved of the congressional hearings, if only to clear the air.

“I think it’s a waste of time, but I guess without it, he’s never going to be satisfied,” said Loretta Alba, a Democrat from Anaheim who voted for Sanchez.

Dornan supporters said they hoped that the hearings would provide enough evidence to force a new election.

“I’d bet a substantial amount of money there were enough bad votes to change the election,” said Charles Ward, a Republican from Anaheim.

Opinions also were mixed on the plausibility of Dornan’s charges: 45% of all registered voters said they found charges of “widespread illegal voting” to be believable, while 41% said they were not believable. The rest said they didn’t know.

Of those who said fraud was widespread, opinions differed as to whether it was extensive enough to change the outcome of the election. In telephone interviews, those who supported Sanchez generally thought that she would have won without any fraudulent ballots cast, while Dornan supporters said the former congressman probably lost because of improper votes.

Subsequent interviews with some of those polled found a great deal of cynicism toward elections in general, with many believing that the election system is open to fraud.

Latinos and non-Latinos differed greatly in their opinions of Sanchez, Dornan, and Dornan’s charges.

On the issue of whether they believed Dornan’s charges of “widespread” illegal voting, only 34% of Latinos said Dornan’s charges were believable, compared with 49% of all others.

Dornan scored low marks with Latinos on popularity, with only 27% saying they held a “favorable opinion” of him and 48% saying their opinion was “unfavorable.” Overall, 35% of registered voters in the district thought highly of Dornan.

In contrast, Sanchez’s ratings with Latinos was “like hero stuff,” said Baldassare, a professor of urban and regional planning at UC Irvine.

Of Latino voters, 56% said they had a favorable opinion of Sanchez to only 14% unfavorable. Overall, she had a 42% approval rating, with 25% holding an unfavorable opinion. One-third of voters in the district said they had not formed an opinion of Sanchez, which is normal for a new member of Congress, Baldassare said.

Also noteworthy was the relatively low approval rating that Dornan earned from members of his own party. A slight majority of Republicans--53%--said they had a favorable opinion of Dornan, while 30% had an unfavorable one. And 17% said they didn’t know.

In interviews, several Republicans said they had grown weary of Dornan in recent years and were unhappy with his behavior since the election.

“We all think he’s acting like a sorehead,” said Beverly Schlinger of Anaheim.

Among Democrats, the feelings were even more intense.

“I certainly hope we never go back to Dornan in the district,” said Preston Hunter of Anaheim.

Several Latino voters said they were worried by the focus on immigrant voters by state and local investigators, and believe an element of racism was at work.

“That’s what everybody is saying, that they think it’s racist,” Alba said.

A joint investigation by California Secretary of State Bill Jones and Orange County Dist. Atty. Michael R. Capizzi has focused on alleged voting by noncitizens.

As part of the investigation, records were seized from Hermandad Mexicana Nacional, a Latino rights group that helped thousands of immigrants become citizens last year and that also ran an aggressive voter registration drive. The names of voters registered by Hermandad are being compared to federal immigration records.

Jones recently said he found evidence of 303 improperly cast ballots in Sanchez’s district. They included people who voted or who registered to vote before taking oaths of citizenship.

The investigation has generated a great deal of publicity since late December, and several of the polled voters said they were anxious for the probe to end.

“I just would like for everyone to come to an agreement and settle this thing once and for all,” said John Rivera, a Democrat from Orange. “A lot of people would like to see that happen.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The random telephone survey of 1,000 registered voters in the 46th Congressional District was conducted April 10-13 on weekday nights and weekend days. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish as needed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For subgroups, such as Republicans or likely voters, the margin of error is larger. Likely voters are defined as those who have frequently voted in the past four years.