An Insecure, Changing Economy : College enrollment gains suggest uncertainty in job market

A rule of thumb in higher-education circles holds that when the job market is tough, enrollment goes up; when jobs are relatively plentiful, enrollment goes down. It makes sense: Most folks would rather make money at a job than spend it on classes. So how to explain the apparent contradiction as enrollment at local community colleges continues to climb even as the job market brightens? As classes began last week across the San Fernando Valley, most campuses reported moderate gains in the number of students--this despite deep class cuts to make up for budget problems within the Los Angeles Community College District. The enrollment numbers suggest two things about the economy.

* First, the local job market may not be as robust as the numbers would make it seem. Los Angeles County in July enjoyed a 6.6% unemployment rate, down from 8.3% a year ago and among the lowest in nearly a decade. Those numbers, however, fail to take into account the quality of the jobs held by workers. Some may be part time or not offer benefits. Service jobs are among the fastest growing in Southern California and nationwide. That broad category includes everything from fast food to professional services that demand top-notch technical skills. So students may be heading to class to move up to a better job or a full-time position or they may be retraining for new jobs or to hang on to the ones they have. Despite the strong economy, worker insecurity remains high.

* And that leads to the second lesson the enrollment numbers provide. In an information-based economy, few jobs are the same as they were even a few years ago. It’s not enough anymore to be a secretary who can type. Now, successful secretaries must also be proficient in entire suites of business software. That requires special training--just the kind community colleges provide. Even top managers need to understand the changes brought with rapidly changing technologies. The workers most in demand are the ones with current skills and an ever-growing list of talents.

None of this, oddly enough, bodes well for the immediate future of community colleges in the Los Angeles district--including Pierce, Mission and Valley. The district has been in dire financial straits for years as enrollment dropped off and state subsidies dried up. But cuts this year have forced campuses to cut classes when they are needed most. Worst hit in the cuts was Mission College, which must chop 21% from its budget. Under the district’s formula, campuses are funded based on the budgets and enrollments of previous years. So when schools like Mission grow rapidly, they are essentially forced to do more with less. It’s a tough lesson for students--but one they’ll discover now rules the new economy they’re part of.