Some Warning Signs Amid Orange County’s Optimism

Another year of a booming economy and low unemployment have left Orange County residents remarkably optimistic about the way they live. The shadows of the bankruptcy continue to recede, lingering mainly in the distaste with which county government is viewed.

Those findings emerge from the Orange County Annual Survey, conducted by Mark Baldassare and Cheryl Katz of UC Irvine. For 16 years the surveys have been providing a valuable snapshot of the county and the feelings of its residents.

Katz and Baldassare reported this year, based on telephone polling done in September, that county residents are more satisfied with the quality of life in the county than they have been in a decade. Eighty-eight percent give high ratings to the quality of life, up six points over last year. That’s a remarkable comeback after the years of recession in the early 1990s and the bankruptcy of 1994.

Also worth noting is the large degree of satisfaction with public schools, especially on the part of parents whose children are in those schools. Given the extensive debate recently over educational standards, school budgets and the so-called “back to basics” movement, it can be easy to lose sight of the belief of many that schools are educating children as they should.

In the survey six years ago, only 21% of the respondents said local schools were doing an excellent or good job. The rate this year was 50%, the most favorable rating for public schools since the question was first asked in 1982. Another 28% rate the schools fair. When it comes to parents with children in the schools, the good or excellent rating rises to 60%.

The findings were similar to those of the Times Orange County Poll earlier this year. The Times poll of 750 county residents found more than half giving high marks to their public schools and saying they believed smaller classes had made a big difference in teaching youngsters basic skills.

But there is also a disquieting element in the UCI survey’s section on schools. Latinos are less likely than whites to have positive evaluations of their schools, by a difference of 41% to 51%. With the county’s Latino population growing each year, that is cause for concern. Classrooms need to be centers of equal opportunity, with children receiving an equal chance to learn regardless of their race or ethnic background or place of residence.

Also cause for concern is residents’ distrust of county government. Only one in four respondents said county government did an excellent or good job in solving problems. Four in 10 believe the county’s officials pay little or no attention to what people think when the officials are developing policies. The same percentage believe county government wastes a lot of the money it collects from taxpayers. Baldassare and Katz noted that, “Even as the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history is fading from memory, there is no indication that trust in county government is improving.”

Although most Orange County residents live in cities, with their own councils, rules and services, county government does play a large part in carrying out state and federal mandates, especially in the areas of health and social services. The county also is in charge of the contentious issue of what to do with El Toro after the Marines close the base in two years. The Board of Supervisors should pay close attention to the survey results; at a time of rebounding from the bankruptcy, distrust of the government should be decreasing.

If the economy gets credit for increasing residents’ optimism, there is more cause to temper the feeling of sunshine with the prognosis by Chapman University economists that the financial crisis in Asia will hurt Orange County. That’s due to the county’s booming export business with Asia. The financial problems are likely to mean fewer buyers in countries like Japan, South Korea and Malaysia for the goods made in Orange County.

Still, the county’s exports are expected to continue growing next year, just at a lower rate. Chapman forecasters also predicted that as many as 35,000 jobs will be created.

Those figures support county residents’ optimism after a number of tough years. They also provide hope that 1998 will be a good year as well.