O.C. Latinos to Outnumber Whites by 2020

By SHELBY GRAD

July 23, 1997 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

SANTA ANA —

The Latino population in Orange County will surpass that of whites by the year 2020, as the rapid growth that has marked postwar Orange County tapers off considerably over the next two decades, according to a demographic study released Tuesday.

Latinos and whites will each make up about 41% of the county population, with slightly more Latinos. In 1995, the county was 59% white and 27% Latino. Asians made up 12% of the population in 1995 and will make up an estimated 15% in the year 2020.

Officials attributed the projected growth in part to higher birthrates in the Latino community in the central county compared to Anglo areas elsewhere.

Continued immigration from foreign countries could be another factor, though immigration levels appear to have dropped somewhat from the 1980s, according to Bill Gayk, head of the Center of Demographic Research at Cal State Fullerton, which prepared the projections for the county.

“The county might not be growing as fast, but it could be changing even faster,” added Michael Ruane, the county’s assistant chief executive officer for strategic affairs. “The change in population and the increased diversity is going to have a tremendous impact.”

Not only will the ethnic population shift, but Orange County will look different in other areas too: More of the very young and the very old will live here, and the rapid development that has been the hallmark of the county will slow to a trickle as the region approaches “build-out.”

The change will require governments to bolster health care programs, expand schools and increase resources for the juvenile justice system.

“It’s going to be a difficult transition because the county is clearly changing,” said Becky Esparza, a member of the Human Relations Commission. “It’s a reality, it’s coming and there’s no way to stop it. I think it’s going to require some people to look at their attitudes and look within themselves.”

The changing face of Orange County comes as the county’s population growth--expected to increase by 15% this decade--will slow to 9% between 2000 and 2010 and to 7% between 2010 and 2020.

By 2020, the county will have little raw land left to develop and will join Los Angeles, Long Beach and other metropolitan areas that are essentially “built out.”

“You look at Pasadena, Lakewood or Norwalk. These are places that have basically used all their land. That indicates what Orange County is beginning to deal with,” Gayk said.

Like their neighbors to the north, Orange County communities will have to focus more attention on maintain their aging housing, revitalizing blighted commercial districts and providing services to an increasingly diverse population.

“I think what you are going to see is a maturing,” said Ronald Bates, a Los Alamitos councilman and president of the state League of California Cities. “You already see this happening in terms of some of the redevelopment projects in North County communities” such as downtown Anaheim and Santa Ana.

Overall, the county’s population is expected to rise from 2,659,300 in 1995 to 3,282,300 by 2020.

The county’s slowing growth also has major implications for its neighbors. Riverside and San Bernardino counties are expected to grow at a much more rapid pace and will likely compete with Orange County for major employers and economic development.

The Center for Demographic Research predicts robust job growth in Orange County, meaning that many workers will commute from homes in Riverside and San Bernardino. Bates and others said the trend will require more roads connecting Orange County and the Inland Empire.

The Board of Supervisors on Tuesday received a summary of the report’s findings, which county government will use in determining its long-term needs and services its residents will need in the years to come.

The latest projections indicate population growth at only a fraction of the rate recorded during the suburban boom years of the 1950s and 1960s, during which miles of farmland gave way to housing tracts and shopping centers. In the 1950s, the county’s population grew 225%; in the 1970s, the growth slowed to 36%.

While much open land remains in the county, Gayk said that some of it is designated for parkland, military or some types of public uses. Some of the remaining land is not ideal for residential or commercial development, he added.

“Remember, in the 1950s, you were building on flat orange groves and bean fields. All you had to do was [uproot] the trees and lay foundations,” he said. “The remaining land in areas like South County is not that easy. Often, it’s on slopes and requires grading.”

The Center for Demographic Research found that growth over the next two decades will occur fairly evenly in both South County and North County. Gayk noted that fairly large parcels are still open for development in the hills of Orange, Brea, Fullerton and Anaheim as well as in Huntington Beach and throughout South County.

Supervisor Thomas W. Wilson said he is anxious for the county to use the data to make more sound land-use decisions that emphasize increased open spaces and low-density developments.

“I don’t want to fill up all this raw land with people just because the land is there,” he said. “I think we need to use this to create well-planned communities. I just detest 20-20 hindsight.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

County’s Changing Face

Orange County’s population growth rate will continue to decline from its 1950s high, reaching just a single-digit level in the 2010-20 decade. By 2020, the Latino population will slightly surpass whites, and the county will be older as baby-boomers slip into retirement:

Population Growth Rate

1940s: 65%

1950s: 226%

1960s: 102%

1970s: 36%

1980s: 25%

1990s: 16%

2000s: 10%

2010s: 7%

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Overall Population Level (in thousands)

1970: 1,420.4