Weld’s Reputation Stands to Gain From His Resignation

The odds seem heavily against him and his political future hangs in balance. But in deciding to resign as Massachusetts governor to devote all his energy to becoming U.S. ambassador to Mexico, William F. Weld is pursuing a strategy designed to bring him a long-run net gain, even if he loses his battle for the diplomatic post.

The most favorable prospect for the maverick Republican, whose resignation is effective today, would be if his dramatic gesture gains him the attention and support he needs to overcome the opposition to his appointment by Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

But political pros in both parties say the longer-range, and more plausible, outcome of Weld’s plan is that it would bolster his image as a man of principle and a crusader for moderation within the Republican Party.

Few believe this would be enough to help him realize his incipient ambitions for the presidency in a party where Weld’s often-liberal views on social issues are anathema to many conservative activists. But it could do him a world of good in Massachusetts if he chooses to run for the Senate in the year 2000, when the seat that Democrat Edward M. Kennedy has held since 1962 is up for election.

Whatever ultimately happens to Weld, 52, his blueprint seems likely to create some dissension within the GOP, where the fault lines over such hypersensitive concerns as abortion rights and gay rights are sharply drawn. Indeed, some Republicans smell a Democratic rat behind Weld’s plan, reasoning that President Clinton--who chose Weld to give an aura of bipartisanship to his foreign policy--is willing to settle for having his nomination cause trouble for the GOP.

“The Democrats want to use Bill Weld to hurt the Republican Party, and Bill Weld ought to think about that,” complained GOP consultant Mike Murphy.

Weld already is putting pressure on party moderates to back his nomination, which Helms is opposing because he regards the ex-governor as insufficiently firm on drug enforcement, a particularly sensitive issue these days in U.S.-Mexico relations. Weld has declared that GOP senators who join in blocking his ambassadorship will define themselves as “Helms’ Republicans.”

But even as Weld plots a course in Congress, he appears to be thinking about his political future through a Massachusetts prism. From that perspective, his seemingly idiosyncratic move makes a good deal of sense.

By leaving office, Weld cuts off the criticism he certainly would have faced if he waged an extended battle for the ambassadorship while still bearing the burden of governing the Bay State.

Beyond that, he bolsters the GOP’s prospects in his home state by allowing his longtime political ally, Lt. Gov. Paul Cellucci, to move into the governor’s chair. Cellucci thus has the advantage of running for a full term in 1998 as an incumbent.

Weld, meanwhile, is temporarily stepping out of the state’s political scene at a time when his approval ratings among Massachusetts voters exceed 70%. “He doesn’t want to spend that capital,” said Ed Cafasso, an aide to Atty. Gen. Scott Harshbarger, one of the Democrats expected to seek the party’s gubernatorial nomination next year. “He may need it in the future.”

Many Massachusetts political professionals expect Weld to draw on that capital by making another Senate run three years from now (he lost in 1996 to Democratic incumbent John F. Kerry). The outcome of his ambassadorship bid probably cuts in his favor either way--if he gets the job, it will presumably be a plus on his resume; if he doesn’t, he can simply paint himself as a victim of Helms, a stance likely to spark sympathy from many Massachusetts voters. Clinton, whom many view as a likely beneficiary of Republican intramural warfare over the Weld nomination, seemed willing for the time being to pass the matter off lightly.

“I appreciate the fact that [Weld] is willing to go to Mexico,” he told governors of both parties at their annual summer conclave in Las Vegas on Monday. He added: “I hope we can get him there,” a line that drew resounding applause.

But a prolonged battle over Weld’s nomination could mean headaches for Clinton too. The president clearly wants to avoid a knock-down battle with Helms that might put his foreign policy objectives in jeopardy. But he also doesn’t want to revive criticism that he is insufficiently supportive of his nominees.

Times political writer Ronald Brownstein and staff writer Elizabeth Shogren contributed to this story from Las Vegas.