Potshot at U-2 Would Be a Windfall, Experts Say

U.S. officials seemed pleased to report this week that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein failed to make good on his threat to shoot at an American U-2 spy plane flying over his country. But they may have been a little disappointed too.

Despite Hussein’s threat--and the U.S. bluster--there is almost no chance that aging Iraqi weaponry could hit the highflying spy plane, experts say. And if Iraq had tried, the result could have been a diplomatic windfall for the United States.

An attack, by demonstrating Iraqi aggressive intentions, could provide justification for a U.S. counterattack, and help make the U.S. case that the United Nations should take forceful steps to compel the Iraqis to submit to weapons inspections, analysts say.

After an attack on the U-2 plane, “we would have been perfectly justified to hammer whatever it was that fired on us,” said a former U.S. official who asked to remain anonymous. “And then we could go back to the United Nations to say, ‘Now let’s talk about sanctions, and maybe even military strikes.’ ”

Added Kenneth M. Pollack, a military analyst at Washington Institute for Near East Policy: “The U.S. believes that any time Saddam wants to take a shot, he should go ahead and do it--because we hold all the military cards in the Persian Gulf.”

The U-2 burst upon the public consciousness in 1960, when the Soviet Union shot down over its territory one of the spy planes and held captive its pilot, Francis Gary Powers. But that occurred only because Powers lost power in an engine and was forced to fly at a lower altitude--and because the Russians saturated the airspace with 14 surface-to-air missiles.

In the 37 years since, U-2s have been shot down on six other occasions, experts say. And because of continuing improvements, the plane is far faster and more difficult to hit than it was back then.

“We’re not going to send an unarmed U-2 aircraft over Iraqi airspace if there’s much chance they can hit it,” said Mark Lorell, a senior defense analyst at Rand Corp. “I’ll bet there’s close to zero probability they can shoot it down, except with some kind of mechanical mishap.”

The aircraft, which is packed with cameras and various sensors, usually flies at 60,000 to 80,000 feet but can reach a maximum altitude of 90,000 feet, according to Jane’s Information Group. The thinness of the air at those altitudes necessitates the plane’s huge wingspan of 103 feet.

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The Iraqis’ SA-2 surface-to-air missiles begin losing accuracy at 30,000 feet, analysts say, and at higher altitudes the U-2 pilots find it easy to avoid them, the analysts say.

The Iraqi air force also includes MIG-25 aircraft that can fly about two-thirds of the way to the U-2’s maximum altitude. At that height, one of them could theoretically fire air-to-air missiles to strike the spy plane. But the missiles are not accurate at that altitude.

Some U.S. defense analysts, moreover, have doubts that Iraqi air force pilots have the skill to be able to handle a MIG while accurately firing air-to-air missiles at such high altitudes.

Additionally, while the details are strictly classified, the U-2 carries sophisticated electronic warfare gear that makes the craft more difficult for an attacker to track.

Of the six U-2s that have been downed since 1960, one was shot down over Cuba and five were downed over China.

Those latter U-2s, provided to Taiwan by the United States in the 1960s, went slower and flew lower because they were powered by an older generation of engines.

The U-2 has several advantages over the U.S. spy satellites that can also provide pictures of Iraq.

The U.S. military has five reconnaissance satellites that pass over Iraq twice a day as they revolve around Earth. But they provide only about 30 to 45 minutes of photos on each pass, said John Pike of the Federation of American Scientists.

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The U-2, by comparison, can fly over Iraq for up to 10 hours on a path that takes it over suspected weapons factories and sites, capturing images with a special panoramic camera.

The U-2 planes have their home at Beale Air Force Base near Sacramento. They played a key role in the Persian Gulf War and gathered data during the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

They have also been used for non-military purposes, such as identifying cocaine fields in South America and earthquake damage in California.