As Wilson Eyes Bid, ’96 Fiasco Looms Large

With a martini-dry wit, Gov. Pete Wilson has distilled his disastrous 1996 White House bid into one big joke--which, as it happens, is how many political pros view it.

“Some of you may recall me from my foray into the presidential race,” the governor told a convention of radio broadcasters in Los Angeles this summer. “Missed it? I was in and out so fast I got a note from Shannon Faulkner, bragging that she lasted longer at the Citadel.

“I chose a novel way to campaign. I was silent for 3 1/2 months after throat surgery. . . . It’s the last time I’ll have surgery at a place called ‘Tonsils R Us.’ How was I to know the surgeon was a Dole delegate?”

Ba-boom!

Such kidding aside, however, California’s governor still burns with a passion to be president. And as Wilson looks ahead to life after office 15 months from now, another run for the White House seems increasingly likely.

“He’s very much interested in doing it,” said Iowa state Sen. Jack Rife, a key supporter in the early-voting state, who discussed the race with Wilson over grilled steaks at the governor’s mansion last spring. “That’s what he relayed to me.”

The governor himself flatly stated his desire to run again in an interview with The Times en route home Saturday from a speech to GOP activists in Reno.

In his address to the Western States Republican Leadership Conference, Wilson offered his pugnacious prescription for winning back the White House in 2000.

Said one longtime Wilson associate, “I think it’s almost inevitable he will do it.”

But if the governor is sanguine about his prospects, many others are decidedly more skeptical, including some of Wilson’s own political advisors. “If he decides to run, he’s going to have to find a way to make people forget about the last campaign,” said Dan Schnur, who was press secretary for Wilson’s failed 1996 bid and says memories of that debacle create “a hole he’s got to climb out of.”

Indeed, Wilson’s campaign, which officially lasted all of 32 days, set something of a benchmark for ineptitude. Not long ago, a Dallas Morning News editorial counseled Texas Gov. George W. Bush, an early front-runner, to pay heed to Wilson’s failings.

“Work on the mechanics,” the editorial advised. “Remember how Pete Wilson’s lackluster speaking style hurt his presidential chances in 1996?”

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To be sure, Wilson would launch his second White House bid with certain advantages he didn’t have the last time. For starters, it would be his second try. With the exception of Gerald Ford--under the extraordinary circumstances of Watergate--every GOP standard-bearer since Richard Nixon has tried and failed at least one time before cinching the Republican nomination.

Moreover, Wilson won’t suffer in his home state, as he did in 1996, by breaking his promise to serve out a full term as governor. Gone, too, is the related drawback of potentially handing power over to a Democrat, Lt. Gov. Gray Davis.

Instead of explaining away the biggest tax hike in California history, Wilson could boast of cutting taxes by $1 billion in this year’s budget. He could talk of reducing class sizes in schools up and down the state.

Perhaps most important of all, he could talk.

After undergoing throat surgery to remove a polyp from his vocal cords, Wilson was rendered mute for two months of his exploratory campaign and remained effectively handicapped by speaking difficulties even after his official entry.

“Presumably, it would be easier if your voice works,” George Gorton, a longtime Wilson strategist who helped run the governor’s 1996 campaign, dryly noted.

But having found his voice--or at least having it restored--can only help so much. What Wilson needs, analysts agree, is something distinctive to say.

“He’s been a competent governor, but so have 32 other Republicans,” said Bill Kristol, a leading conservative thinker who dispenses (not always welcome) advice from the pages of his magazine, The Weekly Standard. “If you’re looking for just a governor, why not go with someone younger and fresher, like George W. [Bush] or [Wisconsin’s Tommy] Thompson or [Michigan’s John] Engler?”

Running through the most-mentioned GOP possibilities, Kristol suggested that ex-Vice President Dan Quayle and magazine publisher Steve Forbes would offer ideological purity. Retired Army Gen. Colin Powell and New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman would present “pizazz.”

“Different people fill different categories. It’s difficult to see which one Wilson fills,” Kristol continued, noting that even the “not-too-colorful, pretty successful ex-governor category” is currently occupied by Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander.

Indeed, one of Wilson’s myriad problems in 1996 was his hybrid, neither-fish-nor-fowl political persona.

“The last time, frankly, he was trying to find pro-choice people who oppose affirmative action,” said Steve Grubbs, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party. “There sure aren’t that many here in Iowa.”

Wilson’s support for abortion rights--and, more particularly, his decision to press his case in high-profile fashion after dropping out--continues to rankle some activists who feel he undermined nominee Bob Dole at the Republican National Convention.

“There are a lot of people who remember that and a lot of people who haven’t forgiven Wilson,” said one former Dole advisor, who helped mediate the issue at the San Diego convention.

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But perhaps the biggest impediment to Wilson’s prospects is the very factor that proved his ultimate undoing in 1996: potential money problems. Given his difficulties raising funds as the powerful sitting governor of the nation’s biggest and arguably most important state, many political pros question whether he would be any more successful once he leaves office.

“He’s had his eight years as governor,” said one prominent California Republican, who backed Wilson in 1996 but dismisses his future prospects. “In 2000, Republicans will have many awfully good choices of new faces.”

But Gorton suggests that being out of office would liberate Wilson to campaign and raise cash in a way he could not while tied down in Sacramento.

“He wouldn’t have to run the state while trying to run for president. He could go camp out in Iowa, go camp out in New Hampshire,” Gorton said, referring to the two states that traditionally vote first. “That’s a huge, huge difference from the last time.”

Sure enough, not a few warn against blithely dismissing Wilson. They note that California’s governor has prevailed before against steep odds.

For the first time in decades, “The field this time has no natural heir apparent, nobody sitting on top of the mountain who has to be pushed off,” said Eddie Mahe, a veteran GOP strategist in Washington. “Wilson has run and won a lot of tough races, so no one can or should write him off.”