Feinstein Popularity Up Amid Economic Hope

Californians are riding a wave of optimism about the state’s direction as the 1998 elections approach, and their resounding surge of confidence in the economy is aiding a renaissance in the fortunes of U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Feinstein ranks as the clear front-runner for the governor’s race she is considering, and is the only Democrat who convincingly defeats Republican Dan Lungren in hypothetical heats, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

For the first time in the more than six years that the Los Angeles Times Poll has been asking, the state’s residents say that California is on the right track. They describe the economy as robust rather than shaky and say the state has emerged from its lengthy recession.

“California definitely has turned the corner,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll, who nonetheless cautioned that confidence is not shared by those on the economy’s lowest rungs.

The poll interviewed 1,396 adults statewide, including 1,092 registered voters, from Oct. 4-7. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among the poll’s other findings:

* The economic turnaround has benefited the state’s incumbent politicians, including outgoing Gov. Pete Wilson and--barely--U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, who is running for reelection next year. But neither is as popular at this point as Feinstein, who has shaken off many of the aftereffects of her costly 1994 race against Republican Mike Huffington, a contest that turned her from the state’s most popular politician into one of its least liked.

* If Feinstein chooses not to run, a major beneficiary is Lt. Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat who picks up a chunk of Feinstein’s supporters. But Republican Lungren also benefits, because Davis remains a much weaker opponent than Feinstein.

* Californians overwhelmingly opposed a federal court decision overturning voter-approved term limits.

Overall, the poll showed that the dreary pessimism that for so long shrouded California’s economy has clearly lifted, affecting everything from personal finances to economic expectations.

Asked whether the state was going in the right direction or was on the wrong track, a plurality, 46%, said it was headed in the right direction and 40% said it was not. Although hardly a soaring endorsement, it marked a strong extension of confidence that has been building since the depths of the recession in 1992.

In 1992, only 12% believed the state was heading in the right direction, and 82% said it was on the wrong track. In the last statewide Times poll, Californians were evenly split over the state’s direction.

The sentiment was not universal, however. White residents and the wealthy were much more inclined to speak confidently about the economy. Only 28% of African Americans said the state was going in the right direction, and 38% of Latinos--but a full half of whites--approved of its direction.

Similarly, confidence in the state’s direction increased along with annual earnings. Fifty-eight percent of those making more than $60,000 said California was heading in the right direction, compared to only 33% of those making less than $20,000.

For the first time in almost six years--as long as the Times Poll has been asking the question--a majority of state residents believes that the recession is over. Though it is a bare majority, 51%, it marks a herculean leap from the depths of the economic difficulties in 1992, when only 4% said there was no recession.

In addition, fully 55% of Californians now describe the state’s economy as robust, more than double the 23% who felt that way in September 1995, the last time the question was asked.

As could be expected, views of personal finances are also sunny. More than two-thirds said their family’s finances were secure. And only 8% said they expected that the economy would be worse off three months hence.

Politicians seeking credit for the economic turnaround, however, may encounter a disbelieving public. Nearly two-thirds--64%--said natural market forces, the yin and yang of economic cycles, were the cause of the recent uptick. Only 14% gave credit to President Clinton, who campaigned last year on his success in turning around the economy. And only 7% credited Wilson, who is considering a second presidential campaign based on California’s comeback.

They may not be able to claim credit, but at least incumbents can take heart that the rising economic tide is lifting their fortunes as well.

Clinton continued to be a popular figure among Californians, with 61% approving of the way he is handling his job and 32% disapproving. That strong ratio was slightly better than the 60%-37% gap he registered last October.

Wilson reversed his lengthy slide into negative ratings by a slight margin, with 48% approving and 45% disapproving of his tenure. For Wilson, that was actually good news, a reversal of the slight negative verdict last October and a surge since he bottomed out in October 1992 with a 28% approval rating.

Boxer’s ratings improved the least, with 43% approval to 29% disapproval. The last time her popularity was measured, in July 1996, she had a 10-point approval margin of 44%-34%.

The largest benefit accrued to Feinstein, who is considering her fourth statewide election campaign in eight years. She won favorable ratings from 54% of Californians, up from 48% in the July poll. At the same time, her disapproval rating dropped from 37% in 1996 to 29%.

Feinstein’s increased popularity reflects a steady climb from the depths of her 1994 Senate race, when the barrage of television ads by multimillionaire Huffington sank her approval rating to 35% in October of that year.

“The vilification of Feinstein is waning,” said poll director Pinkus. “People are forgetting what happened to her in 1994.”

Feinstein’s strength was measurable when it came to matchups with her likely 1998 gubernatorial opponents, Democrat and Republican.

Next year, under the open primary rules that the electorate approved in 1996, all registered voters will be able to cast ballots for the candidate of their choice in the primary. They will not be limited, as in past elections, to voting for those of their party. Independents, as well, will be able to vote in the primary under the new rules, which are being challenged in federal court.

When all registered voters were asked to choose among Feinstein, Lungren, Davis, multimillionaire Al Checchi and state Sen. John Vasconcellos, Feinstein won with 36%, followed by Lungren at 31%, Davis at 11%, Vasconcellos at 3% and Checchi at 1%. (Of those, only Lungren is a Republican.) Among Democratic voters, Feinstein trounced her closest party opponent, Davis, by a 52%-16% margin.

If Feinstein were to forgo the race, Davis and Lungren would both benefit, as would others who have made it clear that they will only run if Feinstein does not. Lungren, under that scenario, won 33%, with Davis at 20%; former U.S. Rep. Leon Panetta, a Democrat, at 12%; state Controller Kathleen Connell, also a Democrat, at 8%; Vasconcellos at 4% and Checchi at 2%.

It was in the mock-ups of a general election race that Feinstein’s strength was most pronounced. Pitted against Lungren, she received 50% to the attorney general’s 41%, largely on the strength of a strong gender gap between female and male voters.

The poll showed Feinstein with a 56%-36% edge over Lungren among women of all parties. The candidates split the male allegiance, each attracting 45%.

Normally, the winning recipe for Republican candidates is dominance over male voters, and a narrowing of the traditional leanings of women toward the Democratic candidate. If that is to be the case for Lungren, the poll showed, he has his work cut out.

When Wilson narrowly defeated Feinstein in the 1990 governor’s race, he captured 54% of male voters to Feinstein’s 40%, and her margin of victory among women was 10 points, 53% to 43%.

Feinstein also showed strength against the attorney general in Republican-leaning areas of the state that are growing in population and political influence. She beat him handily in Los Angeles County, as could be expected, but split the vote in the normally Republican remainder of Southern California. Although she won by a nearly 2-1 margin on her home turf of the Bay Area, she also marginally won the rural rest of Northern California, which has become the battleground in recent races.

Feinstein has expanded her reach into the Republican Party, the poll showed. In 1994, in her race against Huffington, she won 14% of Republican votes. In the current matchup, she won 18% of Republicans from Lungren, and lost a slightly smaller 15% of Democrats to him.

The poll illustrated how Feinstein’s fortunes have been helped by the state’s rebounding economy. Those who believe the state is on the right track support Feinstein over Lungren by a 51%-38% margin, somewhat broader than the overall ratio. Of those who believe the economy is robust, 59% say they have a favorable impression of Feinstein, also higher than the overall impression.

Among all voters, none of the other Democratic candidates could match Feinstein’s showing. While the senator defeated Lungren by 9 percentage points, Davis held a slim 5-point margin over him. His 45%-40% showing was within the poll’s margin of error.

Lungren defeated the other Democratic candidates handily, with a 51%-30% margin over Vasconcellos and a 49%-29% gap over Checchi.

Apart from Feinstein, none of the Democrats was particularly well-known by voters.

When asked their impression of Feinstein, for example, 54% of voters said it was favorable and 36% called it unfavorable. Even among self-defined conservatives, 36% had a favorable impression. Only 7% were not aware enough of Feinstein to come to a decision.

In contrast, 29% of the voters--almost one in three--said they did not know enough about Lungren to deliver a verdict. Of those who did, however, he was popular, with 52% favorable to 20% unfavorable.

Davis, like Lungren a fixture in California politics for two decades, was unknown by 34% of voters, but popular among those who knew him. Forty-nine percent gave him good marks, compared to 17% negative.

Vasconcellos was testament to the fact that long service to the state does not necessarily translate into name identification. Eighty-one percent said they did not know enough about him to render a judgment, while 13% were favorably inclined and 6% had a bad impression.

The lengths to which Checchi must go to sell his candidacy were clear as well. The former co-chairman of Northwest Airlines was a mystery to 89% of Californians, as well as 89% of Democrats. Eight percent were favorably impressed and 3% negatively.

Although there is still time for voters to solidify their views on the candidates for governor, the poll made clear that they have made up their minds about term limits for state politicians. Voters approved the concept in 1990 by a 52%-48% margin, but on Tuesday a federal appellate court struck down the law on the grounds that voters did not know that it barred legislators for life.

Asked whether it was a good idea for term limits to be overturned because the newer members are too inexperienced--or if, contrarily, it was a bad idea because the state does not need career politicians--60% said the courts should not interfere. Only 29% said the measure should be overturned.

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‘98 Governor’s Race

If the June primary election were held today, which of these candidates would you vote for*?

Dianne Feinstein: 36%

Dan Lungren: 31%

Gray Davis: 11%

John Vasconcellos: 3%

Al Checchi: 1%

Don’t know: 18%

* asked of registered voters

****

Issues

What is the most important issue for the gubernatorial candidates in 1998 to address*?

Education: 37%

Immigration: 21%

Crime: 17%

Economy: 15%

Job training for welfare recipients: 9%

* asked of registered voters; up to two replies accepted; top five answers shown

Source: L.A. Times Poll

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The Poll Results

Next year’s June primary will be California’s first “open primary.” Voters will be free to cast their votes for any candidate on the ballot, regardless of the voter’s or the candidate’s party affiliation. Here are responses from registered voters in a Times Poll on the likely candidates and issues:

The Feinstein factor

Dianne Feinstein, the current choice of most registered voters, has not yet announced whether she will run for governor. Dan Lungren becomes the early front-runner if Feinstein is not a candidate.

If the June primary election were held today, which of these candidates would you vote for?

*--*

All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans Dan Lungren 33% 10% 15% 69% Gray Davis 20% 32% 21% 5% Leon Panetta 12% 19% 10% 3% Kathleen Connell 8% 9% 13% 5% John Vasconcellos 4% 6% 4% 2% Al Checchi 2% 2% 8% 1% Don’t know 21% 22% 29% 15%

*--*

****

Lungren’s chances

If the November 1998 general election were held today, which of these candidates would you vote for?

Hypothetical matchups:

Lungren: 41%

Feinstein: 50%

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Lungren: 40%

Davis: 45%

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Lungren: 51%

Vasconcellos: 30%

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Lungren: 49%

Checchi: 29%

****

On the California economy*

Are things in California generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

Is the California economy these days robust or shaky?

Those who think the economy is robust give credit to:

Natural economic forces: 64%

President Clinton: 14%

Governor Wilson: 7%

State Legislature: 4%

Other: 11%

* asked of all adults

Note: Numbers may not total 100% where “don’t know” responses are not shown.

Times Poll results are also available on the World Wide Web at https://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLLS/

Source: Los Angeles Times polls

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,396 adults, including 1,092 registered voters, statewide by telephone Oct. 4-7. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results also can be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.