Put Books and Trade Ahead of Arsenals

Today, Columbus Day, President Clinton will set sail to discover South America. The trip was originally scheduled to correct a first-term omission: Though he completed NAFTA and restored constitutional government to Haiti, Clinton did not visit South America. His aide, Thomas “Mack” McLarty, was sensitive to Latin concerns about being neglected and after Clinton’s reelection persuaded him to go.

The agenda was not clear then; it has since become muddied. The State Department announced a new policy to permit the United States to sell F-16s to Chile’s armed forces, still ruled by Gen. Augusto Pinochet. To assuage Argentine concerns with the sale, the Defense Department designated Argentina a “non-NATO strategic ally.” This decision engendered more ill will in Chile than appreciation in Argentina. Further, some in Brazil saw these decisions and unfortunate remarks by a U.S. trade official as aimed at dividing the nations of Mercosur, the Southern Cone trade group.

Although administration officials insist that the sale of fighter jets to Chile would not provoke an arms race and would benefit democracies, the military in Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela are sure to pressure their civilian presidents to match Chile’s investment. In the end, there will be more tension, and less money to address the region’s serious social and economic problems.

At home, congressional hesitation to grant him fast-track trade negotiating authority makes it difficult for Clinton to provide the leadership needed to negotiate the promised “free trade area of the Americas.”

Some of the president’s aides are hoping that he can avoid these problems by talking up noncontroversial areas such as education. This opens the possibility of a bold opportunity, and the moment and the itinerary are ripe for such a move.

First, Clinton should invite the presidents of Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela to take the lead with their neighbors and establish national education funds with the money that would have been spent on sophisticated weapons. The three governments would pledge a two-year moratorium on the purchase of these arms and begin talks on a broad conventional arms restraint agreement.

President Clinton could help by pledging to contribute to the education funds and to enlist other arms-selling nations to refrain from undermining the agreement. The moratorium would provide an exit from the dilemma that Clinton faces in Chile, where, if the United States does not sell aircraft, the French or the Swedes will.

The moratorium already has been endorsed by 24 heads of governments in the region, and support by Clinton and the three other presidents would give the proposal powerful momentum and permit it to be placed on the agenda of the second Summit of the Americas next April in Chile. Since Pinochet retires from the military in March, Chile might become more receptive to arms restraint. Then, hopefully, President Eduardo Frei could join the other democratic leaders of the hemisphere and agree to an arms control regime that could be a model for the world.

Besides the issue of the region’s security, Clinton needs to reassure our friends that we respect Mercosur and want to work with them to promote a free trade area for the hemisphere. With the Southeast Asian currencies falling, Latin America is poised for economic takeoff. During the last five years, it has been our fastest growing market. U.S. exports in the hemisphere have been growing eight times faster than to Japan and 15 times faster than to Europe. Trade would grow even faster with a new agreement because Latin barriers would fall further, and the U.S. market would become more secure for our neighbors.

Today, U.S. strategic interests in the region mean reinforcing democracy. We do this when the presidents help one another to use scarce resources on social problems rather than help the military pressure their presidents to buy arms. President Clinton’s most enduring legacy can be built in this hemisphere if Congress gives him the authority and he boldly accelerates trade talks and turns an incipient arms race into a competition on education.