After Years of Upheaval, a Time of Contentment

In California--where the land shudders, the cities erupt, the economy tanks and voters lash out--an interesting thing has happened en route to the new century: an outbreak of relative political contentment.

The ground has slowed its march for now, the cities are feeling optimistic, and the economy has Silicon Valley thinking Gold Rush. On the eve of the 1998 elections, Californians are undeniably happier and more secure than they have been in years.

Gone, as a result, is much of the anger that contributed to the passage of polarizing initiatives dealing with immigration and affirmative action. Even as much of the nation continues to creep toward conservatism, California voters are sawing off their partisan edges, a traditional reaction when good times roll.

But although the public may feel more flush, California seems unlikely to embark upon another of the great building binges that have episodically defined progress since World War II.

Nearly 20 years after the revolutionary Proposition 13 lanced state government, voters have consolidated power into their own hands and are clamping a tight hold on the purse strings. They mean to keep it that way.

In short, California seems to be enjoying a relative calm after the storm--a storm that has inalterably recast California yet again.

The state is not only bigger in population than it was just a few years ago, but its complexion is different too. The jobs are not only more numerous, but vastly changed.

As a result of the upheaval, voters are no longer as wed to traditional political hierarchies, like the Republican and Democratic parties, and seem less willing to buy into old political nostrums.

“Knee-jerk reactions from either side of the philosophical spectrum will still be what excites the activists . . . but it will connect less with the rank-and-file voters,” said state Sen. Jim Brulte, a conservative from Rancho Cucamonga.

“What’s driving people in my district is the question, ‘What are you doing to make the system work? What are you doing to make it work for me?’ ”

This political transformation has many practical consequences--among them difficulties for statewide candidates of both extremes, the rise of meat-and-potatoes issues like education, and a very real concern that voters and the politicians meant to represent them are slipping further apart.

Voters may lash out in the frenzied atmosphere of a recession, but in the current, calmer environment, attitudes appear more nuanced.

“It’s no longer enough to be tough on crime,” said Brulte, giving one example. “The sophisticated voter says, ‘What does that mean?’ The hard-core criminal, yeah, lock him away for life. But what about the kid who makes a mistake? How do you differentiate? What’s the real-world solution?’ ”

Fears Allayed

In the canvassing conducted by businessman Al Checchi’s campaign for governor, the tide seemed to turn last spring. Suddenly, optimism.

Most of it stems from the economic recovery, Checchi’s campaign consultant Darry Sragow said. Voters edgy about their jobs for years have calmed down a bit. Yet there is more to it than that. The state of siege that seemed to envelop California in recent years has lifted.

“The fact is, nothing bad has happened,” Sragow, a Democrat, said. “We haven’t had riots, fires, floods or earthquakes.”

A Los Angeles Times poll taken earlier this month confirms that years of pessimism have given way to a sense of wary hopefulness. Asked whether California was headed in the right direction, 46% replied affirmatively and 40% disagreed.

Although hardly a rave review, the trend is important: The overall positive finding was the first in the six-plus years the Times Poll has asked the question.

Yet if credit goes to an improved economy for fueling optimism and a more moderate political outlook, it is not the same economy that flattened and then collapsed earlier in the decade.

As defense, finance and other traditional industries declined, information and entertainment companies gained ascendance. A report prepared by Assembly Republicans showed that in the past three years, two entertainment jobs have been created for every defense job lost. And the pay, the report said, is slightly higher in the entertainment industry.

The changing economy, not surprisingly, has changed the state’s political dynamic along with it.

Workers of the so-called new economy do not mesh well with old-style politics, both for ideological reasons and because of how and where they work. Replacing the factories and other traditional stomping grounds where pols once glad-handed are more entrepreneurial, individual work sites. The new workers--regardless of industry--are much the same: more centrist, better educated and more diverse in race and gender.

Because of that, many apparently have little use for political parties or their old orthodoxies. The GOP study said that 57% of those who recently registered as “decline to state”--rather than Democrat or Republican--have come from the new economy’s power bases in Los Angeles, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Overall, the proportion of voters not aligned with the major political parties in California has more than tripled in three decades, from 3% in 1966 to 11% in 1996, according to tabulations from America Votes, a research group. Overwhelmingly, they describe themselves as moderates.

A Republican Assembly caucus study of voter registration found that the 1990s have been the worst decade for GOP registration in six decades, with only 11% of new registrations. Democrats garnered 26% of new registrants, compared with 34% for “decline to state.”

At the same time, the move toward the middle has been hastened by some of the state’s other broad demographic changes.

In the all-important suburbs, for example, women voters--who outnumber men--have fled the GOP since the rise of its conservative wing. Gun control--not just the abortion issue--accounts for much of the flight, analysts say.

The growing importance of ethnic minorities, meanwhile, has buttressed the move from conservatism to the center--particularly in the suburbs, where many urban expatriates have brought their Democratic inclinations into formerly solid GOP enclaves.

Even many Republicans concede that it will be tougher for the party to appeal to these ethnic voters in coming years because of bad blood over GOP support for 1994’s Proposition 187, the anti-illegal immigration measure, and last year’s Proposition 209, which outlawed affirmative action.

Of course, who actually wins office in 1998 will be greatly determined by the individual match-ups. But already the state’s new political face has had an impact on the mix of issues confronted by politicians.

As a case in point, analysts cite the rise of education and the renewed attention given to the issue by Gov. Pete Wilson, a respected reader of political tea leaves.

“People feel the education system is a disaster,” said Bob Mulholland, a veteran Democratic party operative, voicing a sentiment that seems to transcend partisan lines.

Driving the issue is a combination of factors.

For one, the state’s newly dominant Information Age industries are scrambling to find highly trained, well-educated workers. Meantime, the baby boom generation is now coming into its voting prime, with an eye on the schools as their children start enrolling. Here again, demographics make a difference: The state’s swelling immigrant population places a particular premium on education as the ladder of opportunity.

Some things, however, seemingly never change. The shifting economic and cultural tides have only solidified sentiment on the issue that came to define California conservatism--taxes.

In a series of ground-breaking initiatives that began with 1978’s Proposition 13, Californians have asserted their control over government revenues and have left politicians begging.

“People wanted oversight of government, and they have achieved it,” said political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of Claremont Graduate University. “We’ll never again give the politicians a blank check.”

But now that voters are in control, they are not totally averse to spending. The first sizable breach in the anti-tax wall occurred in 1990, when the Proposition 111 gasoline tax hike was approved with 52% of the vote. The campaign for the increase of 9 cents a gallon provided the blueprint still used by successful tax hike efforts today: Tell voters specifically what the money will do for their benefit and let them decide.

Few see any serious change of heart, the relative good times notwithstanding. In large part, anti-tax fervor has been institutionalized, with past initiatives making it difficult to raise taxes even if the sentiment arose.

Joel Fox, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn., named after one of the authors of Proposition 13, said he considers occasional voter approval of bond measures or other specific spending to be “a success” for the anti-tax movement, not a sign that its influence is waning.

“People want to take it on a case-by-case basis,” he said. “But they want the power.”

Electoral Indifference

The remaining question is simple: Will the average Californian bother to vote? When citizens are relatively comfortable and, at the same time, increasingly unburdened by loyalties to political groups, will they bother to participate in the process?

So far this decade, disinterest has prevailed.

The last gubernatorial primary, in June 1994, set a 70-year low for turnout of registered voters. Turnout for the 1996 general election was, at 65%, almost 10 points behind the 1992 presidential election.

Next year’s elections are expected to be more confusing than most, because almost every element is under dispute in the courts. Cases challenging voter-approved measures on term limits, campaign financing and the open primary will determine who gets to run, how they can raise money and who can vote for which candidate.

Such potential turmoil and the historical indifference toward voting here raise fears of continued rule by a minority of voters--and a largely white minority, at that.

“Basically, the white middle class has its protection of its resources, but nobody attends to the problems of the inner-city areas,” said UC Berkeley’s Bruce Cain. “Are we building up conditions of class and racial conflict for which we will pay the price down the road?”

State Sen. John Vasconcellos, not one to flinch from blunt assessments, finds reason for optimism. If people are happier, he figures, they feel less threatened. And perhaps they are more willing to figure out how to include the whole state in an emerging renaissance.

“We could be at a place where diversity leads to strength,” said Vasconcellos, who recently began exploring a bid for governor. “There’s a lot of healthy prospects if we are not blinded by old prejudices.”

“So it’s not a rosy picture,” he said. “It is a promising picture.”

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A State of Moderation

Economic and cultural shifts have combined to dramatically rearrange the state’s political landscape, with votes becoming increasingly centrist. Here are some of the factors and implications:

* California is starting to see an awakening of Latino political power. Though only about 50% of eligible Latinos are registered to vote, Latinos as a percentage of the electorate increased in each general election this decade.

* The recession caused major job losses in many of California’s traditional industries: defense, aerospace and low-tech manufacturing. But the entertainment industry remained strong, increasing employment by 26% from 1990-94. It is expected to continue to grow in size and influence.

* Other growing employment categories in California are biotechnology, education and computer-related fields.

* The need for educated workers has led to an influx of college-educated migrants since 1985; a larger percentage of those leaving the state had high school degrees or less.

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Voter Registration

A growing percentage of the state electorate declines to state a political preference or lists a party affiliation other than Republican or Democrat.

(Please see newspaper for full chart information)