Watching the Bully Get a Pat on the Head

It’s not hard to understand why Taiwan hates this week’s Sino-U.S. summit. Look at it this way: You’re the only Chinese democracy in the world, you have but 23 million people and yet you’ve grown to become the world’s seventh largest economy, and you’re resolutely anti-Communist. And so what does America do? It agrees to have a summit with Beijing and you have to stay on the sidelines.

No wonder Taiwan is paranoid--who wouldn’t be in its situation? Taiwan’s new foreign minister, Jason Hu, puts it this way: “Not that we don’t trust the U.S., but people become paranoid because giants like the U.S. and China never try to understand us. How can we know for sure that we will even be heard by them?”

In his first U.S. interview since being named to the post, Hu described his own “very mixed feelings about this summit. On the one hand it could bring [the People’s Republic] into society and help it behave like the rest of us. On the other hand, you should never misunderstand Beijing’s motivation or underestimate its persistence. They want everything their way, and they will seek every opportunity to undercut our relationship with the U.S.”

Taiwan’s nightmare, of course, is that this state visit by China could put in motion a process leading ultimately to Taiwan’s devaluation, if not disappearance, as a nation. “It’s just possible that this summit could be the start of the process of U.S. realignment away from Taiwan and towards Beijing,” he said. “We have to be very careful.”

Note that Taiwan is an island nation created out of the Chinese civil war in 1949. It’s small, but tough; even so, nearly 50 years later, only 30 nations are willing to buck Beijing and give it official recognition as an independent state. No man is an island, perhaps, but a nation can be: “As foreign minister,” said Hu, “I need to gain our international breathing space. It’s not a PR game for us; it’s survival. People say we have too much influence on Capitol Hill. Heck, I cannot even walk into the State Department. They [Beijing] can call the vice president or the secretary of State and have their calls returned. Not us. So I’ll switch with them. They can have the Hill, I’ll take the State Department and the White House.”

So what does Taiwan want? “We don’t have the right to ask the U.S. to protect us. But we do have the right to ask the U.S. not to help the Chinese against us. I want the people of Taiwan to be heard, seen and felt. We will not be pushed aside or isolated. We need to do everything possible to preserve our freedom and our way of life.” Does Taiwan sometimes bark too loudly--the little poodle on the boulevard warning the bigger dogs that they’ll have a fight on their hands if they mess with it? “We are not pushing the independence envelope,” retorts Hu. “We have enough trouble without trying to create trouble. China is the proverbial 800-pound gorilla in your living room. Worse yet, not only is an 800-pound gorilla in my living room, but he thinks he’s my brother.”

Still, many Beijing intellectuals and commentators believe Taiwan might benefit if this summit is successful. Interestingly, Hu doesn’t necessarily disagree: “If the U.S. grand design is working, then after the summit the relationship between Beijing and Taiwan should be better. So let’s see if those in Beijing can turn towards us with more reason, with more moderation, and with a genuine desire to understand us.”

Yes, let us see. Undoubtedly, Taiwan does appreciate that mainland China’s rise does not necessarily mean Taiwan’s demise. It is even gleefully noted here that U.S. politicians have started bashing China over its huge trade deficit with America. That could take the heat off Taiwan as the biggest spoiler in the Sino-U.S. relationship. And this week’s predictable demonstrations in America against China’s repressive human rights policies could serve to remind Americans that tiny Taiwan doesn’t go in for mainland-style repression.

Finally, more Taiwanese may be secretly rooting for China’s President Jiang Zemin to do well this week than anyone here wants to admit. Jiang, a former mayor of Shanghai, emphasizes negotiation, compromise and careful consensus--qualities that may be the best hope for the resumption of bilateral negotiations with Taiwan that were broken off in 1995. Jiang, committed to the late Deng Xiaoping’s policy of putting economic development over any kind of foreign-policy confrontation, may in fact be the best insurance policy Beijing can offer against the mainland turning ugly toward Taiwan.

Whatever the outcome of this week’s summit, Taiwan will have to keep living with international injustice. Sure it’s unfair that Beijing gets to sit at the top table with America and Taiwan doesn’t get invited to the party. But if Taiwan expects to survive, either as a limited sovereign nation as it is now or as some kind of Hong Kong-plus to the mainland, it will have to accept the reality of being overshadowed by Beijing, boss of 20% of the world’s population. At the same time, if Beijing expects to earn the respect of the world, it will have to learn to accept the existence of Taiwan, loud bark and all.