Unemployment at 7.5%, With a 2.5% Rise in Jobs Forecast

Reflecting a slowdown from the brisk economic growth of the first seven months of the year, the Ventura County unemployment rate remained at a relatively high 7.5% in August, according to a report released Friday by the state Employment Development Department.

But UC Santa Barbara economist Mark Schniepp cautioned that the economic slowdown was “nothing to get excited about,” and pointed to a growth in higher-paying, more stable jobs in the county as a good sign.

“If we get a string of three months together, yes, I would be concerned,” Schniepp said. “Then I would say this is definitely slowing down, and I would start looking for causes.”

At this point, however, Schniepp said he expects a 2.5% overall increase in nonfarm jobs through the end of 1997, though the numbers may vary between 1% and 3% month to month. After falling off in March and dipping to a seven-year low in April, unemployment leveled off in May and began to edge up during the summer.

Though unemployment rose to 7.6% in July and hovered at about the same level in August, the more significant annual comparison shows there were 2,600 more jobs in the county last month than there were at the same time last year, a sign that the local economy is humming along.

There were 256,500 jobs in the county last month.

Compared to the same time last year, there were 4,100 more nonfarm jobs--the most significant figure, according to Schniepp--but a decrease of 1,500 farm jobs.

Nonfarm jobs are considered the best index of the true gain in jobs because they are less cyclical, Schniepp said, while agricultural jobs are more of a wild card, subject to the vagaries of weather.

Specifically, there were 700 more jobs in education, 800 more in manufacturing durable goods, 1,500 more in business services, 600 more in health services, and 500 more in construction.

“The county is experiencing quite a bit of job growth,” said Dee Johnson, an analyst from the state’s Employment Development Department.

Added Schniepp: “This is good, because it shows there are higher-paying, more stable jobs being created. One of the most positive things is that durable manufacturing jobs are up. That’s important.”

The county figures echoed more dramatic drops in the unemployment rate on the state and national levels. California’s unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% last month to 6.1% this month, while the U.S. rate dipped from 5% to 4.8%.

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Ventura County Jobless Rate

August 1997: 7.5%

Annual Rates

1997: 6.6%

1996: 7.1%

1995: 7.5%

1994: 7.8%

Source: California Employment Development Department