Californians Upbeat About State’s Economy

Californians are feeling better about the state’s economy and overall direction than they have in years, and their high spirits are benefiting lawmakers from President Clinton to state legislators, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Despite worries about education and crime--which top the list of Californians’ concerns--the overall mood is upbeat, with residents of every age and political stripe sharing the positive outlook.

For the first time in the 1990s--a decade racked by rioting, recession and a series of epic natural disasters--a majority of Californians, 52%, believe the state is moving in the right direction. The percentage is up from 47% in a Times poll at the end of last year--and up from 12% in September 1992 in the throes of recession.

On the economic front, two-thirds of Californians describe the state’s economy as “robust”--up from 55% six months ago.

“While people worry about the state of public education and the crime rate, a powerful economy trumps those concerns,” said Sharon Pinkerton, associate director of The Times Poll.

The poll, directed by Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,409 adults statewide April 4 to April 9. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Political incumbents far and near are reaping the benefits of the state’s economic whirlwind.

Californians give Clinton a 72% job approval rating, up 11% from a Times poll in October, despite a steady stream of sexual misconduct allegations. The president’s ratings are high among Californians of all ages, incomes and educational levels.

Even about half the registered Republicans, 49%, give the president high job approval ratings, along with 67% of registered independents and 90% of his fellow registered Democrats.

Misconduct allegations aside, “As the Dow Jones rises, so do Clinton’s approval ratings,” Pinkerton quipped.

Governor’s Approval Rating

Republican Gov. Pete Wilson does not fare nearly as well as the president. Even so, his approval rating has climbed from his nadir of 28% in October 1992. Currently, 47% of Californians approve of the governor’s job performance, virtually unchanged from October.

Reflecting a deep partisan division, however, 72% of fellow Republicans approve of Wilson’s performance, compared with just 40% of Democrats and 35% of independents.

The governor’s approval rating is also more negative than positive among less affluent and younger residents, African Americans and Latinos, a group that took particular umbrage at his role in championing Proposition 187, the anti-illegal immigrant measure approved by voters in 1994.

The Democratic-run state Legislature gets an approval rating of 43%, with 34% disapproving. Although hardly spectacular, it is improved slightly from a 41%-41% split in October and is dramatically better than the dismal 13%-73% rating of September 1992.

Two of California’s other statewide officeholders, Democratic Sens. Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, enjoy favorable job performance ratings, with Feinstein’s at 53% and Boxer’s at 45%.

The uniformly positive assessment of elected leaders from Clinton to Wilson to the state Legislature again proves one of the verities of politics: A rising economic tide tends to buoy all incumbents.

Indeed, the positive perception of life in the Golden State was far-reaching, with similarly high proportions of Democrats and Republicans concurring.

African Americans were less likely to hold that view, however, with only 37% saying things are going right and 49% believing that the state is seriously off track. Whites believe that the state is heading in the right direction by a 53%-37% margin and Latinos by 49%-42%.

More affluent residents are also likely to take rosy view, as do better educated Californians.

On the economy, high proportions of both Democrats, 69%, and Republicans, 77%, describe it as robust. But once again whites are more upbeat than blacks or Latinos in their assessments. Seventy-two percent of whites call the economy robust, compared with 52% of Latinos and 40% of African Americans.

Sixty percent of women characterized the economy that way, compared with 72% of men. The gender gap has narrowed by roughly half in the past six months.

“Women tend to have lower incomes and are less likely than men to work outside the home, both of which color their view of the economy,” Pinkerton said.

Even with the economy perking along, other concerns have bubbled to the surface.

Education, Crime and Other Issues

Fifty-eight percent of respondents cited one or another social issue as the most important problem facing the state, followed by a crime-related issue--cited by 35%--and the economy--cited by 21%. (Those interviewed were allowed to give multiple responses).

During the recession, in May 1994, more than half--54%--of Californians cited the sagging economy as the most pressing issue.

Specifically, 27% now cite education as the No. 1 issue facing California, up 6% from a poll late last year and 13% from May 1994. Twenty percent cited crime, even though California now enjoys its lowest crime rate in 30 years. Ten percent cited immigration, an issue that was white-hot during the last governor’s race four years ago.

“People aren’t talking about immigration today the way they were during the fight over Proposition 187,” Pinkerton noted. “It’s a case of out of sight, out of mind.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Upbeat Mood

Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

Right direction: 52%

Wrong track: 38%

*

What is the most important problem facing California today?

Education: 27%

Crime: 20%

Immigration: 10%

Drugs: 9%

Gangs: 7%

Unemployment: 7%

*

Would you describe the California economy these days as robust or shaky?

Robust: 66%

Shaky: 32%

*

Job approval ratings for . . .

*--*

5/’91 9/’92 3/’93 3/’94 3/’95 3/’96 10/’97 Now Bill Clinton Approve NA NA 51% 58% 50% 56% 61% 72% Disapprove NA NA 29% 35% 41% 39% 32% 25% Pete Wilson Approve 52% 32% 30% 39% 47% 36% 48% 47% Disapprove 34% 59% 59% 50% 44% 56% 45% 43%

*--*

* Accepted up to two replies; top six responses shown.

Note: Results are shown for “all adults.” Percentages may not total 100% where more than one reply was accepted from each respondent or some answer categories are not shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,409 adults in California by telephone April 4-9. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asians were interviewed and are part of the total sample, there were not enough Asian voters to break out as a separate subgroup.