State’s Farms Reap Another Record Year

Crowing like the proverbial barnyard roosters, California officials reported Friday that the production of the state’s farms and ranches soared to another record in 1997. But they cautioned that El Nino effects and the deepening Asian crisis will spell trouble for 1998 crop volume and value.

Agricultural output in the Golden State, the nation’s leading producer, surged last year to $26.8 billion, topping the previous year’s revised all-time high by $1.5 billion.

The gain, despite severe rural flooding in January 1997 and the midyear onset of economic woes among key Pacific Rim trading partners, “shows how agriculture continues to be a driving force in our economy in California,” state Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman said in a news conference.

Despite the Asian weakness, agricultural exports held steady in 1997 at $6.7 billion, with California exporting about 20% of what it grew, according to research from UC Davis’ Agricultural Issues Center that was also unveiled Friday. But drops are anticipated for 1998.

Those declines will be heaped atop the planting and harvesting delays caused by this year’s wacky El Nino weather. The California Department of Food and Agriculture’s most recent production forecast calls for weather-related dips in the volumes of a range of commodities, including wine grapes (down 12%), apples (down 5%), olives (down 9%), pears (down 4%) and rice (down 13%).

“Agriculture in California is in tough shape this year,” said Daniel Sumner, director of the center, which the state commissioned to revamp the way exports are measured. When numbers come in a year hence, he added, “we’ll be trying to untangle” which effects resulted from weather and which from economic downturns.

“We know Asians are buying less [this year],” he added. “We know it’s not going to be positive [for 1998]; we just don’t know how bad it will be.” In 1995, the export figure was $6.3 billion.

Anecdotal information suggests a mixed export outlook for 1998, depending on the commodity and the trading partner. Sales to Asia of higher value-added vegetables such as broccoli have suffered. However, cotton is the state’s largest export product--with shipments valued at $825 million last year--and demand is expected to remain reasonably steady, Veneman said, because raw cotton is used by Asian nations to make products for export.

Complicating matters, the cool, wet spring and early summer prevented or delayed cotton planting, with the result that volume of the crop is expected to plummet by 34% from the 1997 level.

In addition to cotton, leading exports in 1997 were almonds, $818 million; wine, $375 million; table grapes, $331 million; and oranges, $307 million. Showing particular strength were exports of California wines, which grew 80% from 1995 to 1997.

Sumner said he is relatively optimistic that South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia have fundamentally sound economies and will bounce back in a year or two. Japan, on the other hand, by far California’s biggest trading partner with $1.2 billion in purchases in 1997, “hasn’t seemed to have the political will to get its house in order,” he said.

Several crops registered sharp changes in production and/or price in 1997. Milk showed the largest decrease in value--$88 million--with production up 7% but value down 2% for the year. Lettuce production rose 3%, but the value soared by 20%, leading to an increase of $211 million. Grape production vaulted 33%, while the value climbed 29%, primarily because of strong wine grape prices, for an overall increase of $627 million. Vegetable production dipped 3%, whereas the value rose 11%. Fruits and nuts showed 16% gains in both production and value.

California’s crop diversity and abundance enabled it to outpace second-place Texas by nearly $11 billion.

Given this year’s chaotic weather, Veneman was loath to project ahead a year to imagine what the picture would be.

“Usually, when you have lower supply, you have higher value,” she said. “The question is whether they will balance out. At this point, it’s impossible to predict.”

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Cream of the Crop

Total California farm production, in billions of dollars:

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Value Value Percent Rank Commodity 1997 1996 change 1. Milk and cream $3.63 $3.71 --2.2% 2. Grapes 2.82 2.19 +28.8 3. Nursery products 1.76 1.66 +6.0 4. Cattle/calves 1.32 1.12 +17.9 5. Lettuce 1.25 1.04 +20.2 6. Almonds 1.13 1.02 +10.8 7. Hay 1.04 0.84 +23.8 8. Cotton lint 0.98 1.07 --8.0 9. Tomatoes 0.87 0.92 --5.4 10. Flowers/foliage 0.73 0.65 +12.3

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Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture