Secession Signature Drive Going Down to the Wire

With only nine days left to collect signatures, activists petitioning for a San Fernando Valley secession study acknowledged Tuesday they are still 35% short of their goal, but expressed confidence that they would reach it.

Veterans of other petition-circulating campaigns said that the Valley group is facing an uphill task and may have made a mistake in selecting the difficult summer period for its effort.

Leaders of Valley VOTE, the organization leading the campaign, said they have collected 116,900 signatures of the 180,000 they said they would need to wind up with 135,000 valid names. But they stressed that volunteer signature gatherers have yet to turn in an additional 105,000 petitions.

Still, the figure released Tuesday represents only a mild increase from Valley VOTE’s last reported tally on July 26, when the group estimated it had gathered 100,000 signatures.

Valley VOTE Chairman Richard Close said the earlier figure was based in part on blind speculation because many petitions had not been turned in. Tuesday’s total of 116,900 signatures was solidly based on petitions in hand, he said.

“I think the number is good,” Close said. “It’s really humming along.”

Under state law, Valley VOTE must collect signatures from 25% of the approximately 540,000 registered voters in the Valley to trigger a study that could lead to a vote on the creation of a new, independent Valley city.

To ensure enough signatures, after officials disqualify the inevitable invalid ones, Valley VOTE wanted to turn in 180,000 to 200,000.

Valley VOTE President Jeff Brain said that goal is still within reach, since he expects a flood of petitions, signed by the Aug. 27 deadline, to arrive in the following two months, when they will still be usable. Plus, more than 80 paid signature gatherers will be soliciting signatures throughout the Valley until the last minute, Brain said.

The owner of a professional petitioning firm in San Francisco, however, said Valley VOTE is being far too optimistic, and he expressed doubts the group will succeed.

“To get 25% of the registered voters is virtually impossible,” said David Spero of Pacific Petition, which helped gather signatures to place the Indian gaming initiative on the statewide ballot in November.

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The voter rolls in most counties are littered with ineligible names, including people who have either died or moved. Plus, there always is a certain percentage of voters who refuse to sign petitions, no matter what they’re for, Spero said.

“That probably takes up 30% of the voters right there,” Spero said. “That means you’ve got to have one out of every three voters support your cause--and secession is a controversial issue down there.”

Veteran political consultant Arnie Steinberg, whose public opinion poll on Valley secession earlier this year help launched the Valley VOTE campaign, agreed the group faces a formidable task.

He believes Valley VOTE has done well, however, especially since the petition drive was hampered by the stifling heat waves that have baked the San Fernando Valley this summer. People tend to stay indoors when the mercury climbs so high, putting them out of reach of signature gatherers, Steinberg said.

Another Los Angeles campaign expert, Harvey Englander, said he’s surprised Valley VOTE has had such a difficult time.

Englander approached Valley VOTE two months ago, suggesting the group use an aggressive direct-mail campaign, an expensive but highly effective method that is often used in petition campaigns.

Englander, who fetches top dollar for his services, said both he and his advice were turned away.

Close said that Valley VOTE, through cooperating homeowners associations, has used a limited direct-mail campaign in Sherman Oaks and Encino. Still, Valley VOTE decided not to mail petitions to every registered voter in the Valley because the cost would have been too much for the group to pay, Close said.

Englander dismissed the complaint by Valley VOTE leaders that the petition drive might be doomed because its signature gatherers were ejected from the popular July air show at the city-owned Van Nuys Airport.

Valley VOTE Monday filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court against the city over the incident. The group’s leaders estimate they might have collected 20,000 to 40,000 signatures at the air show, which attracted 250,000 spectators.

“No single one event should be the cause of getting enough signatures or not,” Englander said.

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Steinberg also said members of Valley VOTE have been too preoccupied with the Van Nuys Airport incident.

“They’ve devoted too much time to it. It’s cost them some momentum,” Steinberg said.

Close said that if the Valley VOTE petition drive falls short, the setback suffered at the Van Nuys air show will be the No. 1 reason.

Englander also was critical of the summer period Valley VOTE chose to conduct its petition drive. Under state law, Valley VOTE was free to pick any 90-day period.

“Summer is a hard time to motivate people,” Englander said. “People are on vacation. They want to spend time with their families. They have other things to do.”

Close, however, said Valley VOTE decided to hold the petition drive from late May to late August because the time span included three public occasions that make it easier to reach large numbers of people: June’s primary election, Fourth of July celebrations, and the July 18-19 air show.

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Either way, the debate might be made moot by the California Legislature. State lawmakers are considering emergency legislation that would give Valley VOTE another three months to gather signatures. The bill passed a key Senate committee Monday, and has received support even from lawmakers who oppose Valley secession, who say the additional time would make amends for the air show incident.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Petition to Secede

THE PETITION: The petition calls on the Local Agency Formation Commission to study the effects of forming a new, independent city that would be created by the San Fernando Valley seceding from the city of Los Angeles. The petition also calls on LAFCO to place the issue on the ballot for a citywide vote.

WHO CAN SIGN?: Only registered voters who live in the San Fernando Valley, ad who live within the boundaries of Los Angeles, are eligible to sign the petition.

DEADLINE: Aug. 27 is the last day to sign.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?:

* After the deadline, Valley VOTE has 60 days to submit the petitions to LAFCO, the state authority with jurisdiction over applications for secession.

* LAFCO then has 30 days to validate the petitions. Valley VOTE must submit signatures from 25% of the approximately 540,000 registered voters in the Valley--135,000 signatures. Signatures must be verified, and only the signatures of registered voters living in the Valley will count.

* If Valley VOTE fails to collect the required number, LAFCO must give the organization another 15 days to gather additional signatures for a “supplemental petition.” LAFCO then has 10 days to verify those signatures. If that also falls short, the effort fails.

* If the petition drive is successful, LAFCO is required to study whether an independent Valley city would be viable, and also determine the financial consequences secession would have on the remaining city of Los Angeles. If the findings are favorable for Valley secession, LAFCO must decide whether to place the issue on the ballot for a citywide vote--which could happen as early as 2000. The measure would have to be approved by a majority of voters citywide, and a majority of voters in the Valley.

Compiled by PHIL WILLON / Los Angeles Times