Most Oppose Impeachment, Polls Show

By RONALD BROWNSTEIN

Dec. 15, 1998 12 AM PT

TIMES POLITICAL WRITER

WASHINGTON —

As the House of Representatives nears its historic decision on President Clinton’s fate, a clear majority of Americans remain opposed to impeachment and convinced that both parties are operating far more out of political calculation than moral conviction, a survey by the Pew Research Center and other new national polls over the weekend have found.

The Pew poll, released Monday, found a sharp decline since earlier this fall in public assessments of both the GOP congressional leadership and the Republican Party overall and suggested that the party could suffer further damage if impeachment passes the House this week. While only one in 20 of those polled said that their opinion of Clinton would decline if impeachment is approved, one in three said they would think less of House Republicans.

For all that, the poll--which surveyed 1,201 adults from Dec. 9 through Dec. 13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points--found no evidence that the prospect of impeachment was generating huge public unease. Only one-third of Americans said they were closely following the story, no higher than this measure has been all year.

“The overall message is that the public continues to support Bill Clinton but they are taking this in stride,” said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, an independent polling organization. “This step so far hasn’t panicked the public.”

Public Opinion May Be Volatile

If anything, the new polls suggest that public opinion may prove volatile as the nation careens into the first House vote on impeaching a president in 130 years. For instance, in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Organization Inc. survey taken Saturday and Sunday, 62% of respondents said that Clinton should not resign. Yet an ABC/Washington Post survey taken at the same time--and released Monday night--found that a striking 58% of those polled said Clinton should resign, rather than contest a Senate trial, if he is impeached--even though 61% said he should not be impeached in the first place and just 13% believe the country would be better off if he is removed from office.

The Pew survey found enormous skepticism about the motivations of both parties in the intensifying crisis. Fewer than one in five of those polled said that they believe Republicans are pursuing impeachment because they consider Clinton’s offenses “serious enough to end his presidency,” while just over seven in 10 said that “political reasons” are driving the GOP.

Democrats scored only slightly better, with about one in four saying they were motivated by the belief that Clinton’s offenses do not justify removal and six in 10 saying that they see politics as the driving force.

On the core issue, the flurry of surveys found only modest movement after last week’s emotional and tense Judiciary Committee proceedings. “There has been no sea change in public opinion,” Kohut said.

Overall, Pew found that just 29% said Clinton should be “impeached and removed from office” while 67% said that he should not. After a week of blistering oratory from Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee, Clinton’s approval rating remained at 61% in the Pew survey.

Most Believe Clinton Committed Perjury

What makes those findings even more striking is that most Americans now accept the GOP’s central contention: that Clinton committed perjury. The Gallup survey last weekend found that two-thirds believe he lied. Yet Americans continue to resist the Republican conclusion that such an offense should force Clinton’s removal.

Over the weekend, other surveys divided questions about impeachment by the House and removal by the Senate. Framing the question that way found Republicans making some progress at building support for impeachment--but still facing strong resistance. In the Gallup survey, for instance, 38% said they wanted their representative to vote for impeachment, while 59% wanted a no vote. That’s up from 32% support for impeachment before last week’s hearings. The ABC/Washington Post poll found similar movement.

The new polls found considerable support for the option of censuring, rather than impeaching, Clinton. So far, House GOP leaders have indicated that they will block any attempt to allow a vote on censure.

All of these surveys illuminated the jagged partisan divide that has complicated the political equation for wavering members of Congress. The poll also found that just over three in five Republicans support Clinton’s removal--a sentiment that is exerting enormous pressure on GOP legislators to support impeachment.

Yet even as they worry about offending those base supporters, Republicans face clear evidence that the drive for impeachment is alienating less ideological voters--even some who have traditionally supported the party.

In the Pew survey, just 46% of those surveyed said that they have a favorable view of the Republican Party, while 47% said they view the party negatively. That is a considerable drop from early September--before the House authorized the impeachment inquiry--when 56% viewed the party positively, and just 37% negatively. By contrast, in the new survey, 59% have a favorable view of the Democratic Party and only 34% view it unfavorably, figures that are unchanged since September.

The poll found that Republicans have suffered the sharpest declines among groups that have traditionally bolstered their coalition: whites, men, those earning more than $75,000 annually, and above all, college graduates, just 43% of whom now view the GOP favorably, down from 60% in September.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

What the Polls Are Saying

Do you think that Bill Clinton should or should not be impeached and removed from office?

November 1998

Yes: 23%

No: 70%

Other/Don’t know: 7%

December 1998

Yes: 29%

No: 67%

Other/Don’t know: 4%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican leaders in Congress are doing?