Impeachment Votes Already Echo in 2000

The gavel that slammed down on the House votes to impeach President Clinton also signaled the opening shot of the 2000 congressional campaign.

A moderate House Republican from New York who opposed impeachment already has drawn a primary opponent angered by his stand. A likely Democratic challenger to Rep. Brian P. Bilbray (R-San Diego) in 2000 went to Balboa Park to denounce the incumbent’s support for impeachment. And some liberal activists, not content to wait until 2000, are looking into whether they should mount recall campaigns against impeachment advocates.

The electoral impact of the House’s landmark action is diverse and hard to predict almost two years in advance. But analysts said it is the Democratic Party that may manage to reap political benefit from the impeachment of a Democratic president.

House Republicans pushed impeachment despite popular sentiment against ousting Clinton, and Democrats hope that public outrage will boost their fund-raising, improve candidate recruitment and help the party win the House in 2000. Initial signs are encouraging for them on all fronts.

“We’re six seats away from regaining a majority,” said Dan Sallick, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, referring to the slim margin by which the GOP will control the House next year. “Clearly, the activists and infrastructure are revved up. This should create an excellent recruiting environment for Democrats.”

GOP Acknowledges It Rolled the Dice

Republicans acknowledge that they made a big roll of the dice in assuming that the impeachment issue will not resonate with voters two years from now. Some even acknowledge that it is a gamble they would not be surprised to lose.

“The fundamental irony is, if impeachment goes to its logical conclusion, the party of the president will be most benefited,” said Rep. James A. Leach (R-Iowa), a moderate who voted for impeachment. “And I accept that I, as an individual representative, will be severely jeopardized.”

Even before Saturday’s votes to impeach Clinton on two charges--perjury and obstruction of justice--arising from his relationship with Monica S. Lewinsky, the incoming chairman of the House Democratic campaign committee was warning of dire consequences for moderate Republicans who backed impeachment.

“The gloves are off and we are going after them with everything we have,” Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy (D-R.I.) told reporters.

Indeed, several Republicans already have been singled out.

The Connecticut Democratic Party is laying plans to recruit a strong opponent for Rep. Nancy L. Johnson, a moderate Republican who supported impeachment. The Democrats have issued a statement lambasting her for being a “partisan vote for whatever is the will of her party bosses.” It is a theme that was used effectively when Johnson nearly lost her seat in 1996 after overseeing an ethics investigation that critics said went easy on House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). Democrats believe that her impeachment votes will give the argument even more force.

In San Diego, after Bilbray announced his eleventh-hour decision to vote for impeachment, Democratic City Councilwoman Christine Kehoe helped lead the anti-impeachment rally in Balboa Park. Kehoe nearly defeated Bilbray in 1998 and has said that she may run again in 2000.

People for the American Way, a liberal group, is researching the legality of circulating recall petitions to unseat members of Congress, a move clearly targeted at Republican moderates who supported impeachment. Legal experts are divided on the question.

Even a GOP moderate who ultimately came out against impeachment the day before the vote, Rep. Constance A. Morella of Maryland, may feel political repercussions. Her 1998 Democratic opponent, former civil rights leader Ralph Neas, criticized her for taking so long to make up her mind and said that he will challenge her again in 2000.

Rep. Amo Houghton (R-N.Y.), another moderate who opposed impeachment, has intraparty worries. He drew a conservative primary opponent for the 2000 campaign just days after he announced his position.

Pro-Impeachment Democrat Targeted

At least one of the five Democrats who backed impeachment, Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. of Virginia, may face a primary challenge. “He upset a lot of Democrats,” said Carl Eggleston, Democratic Party chairman in Goode’s district. “It will be a bumpy road for him to get the nomination.”

Conservative Democrats who voted against impeachment also could face electoral backlash, especially those from the South. But GOP strategists are not eager to make such threats now as they try to move their party beyond an unpopular impeachment.

“It’s not the kind of issue you’re going to recruit candidates on,” said Trey Harden, spokesman for Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-Va.), incoming chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Republican leaders said that they think the issue will fade dramatically in the 2000 campaign, swamped by other issues and a presidential campaign in which Clinton will not be on the ballot.

“Two years is an eternity in politics,” said Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster in Atlanta.

Another top Republican strategist said: “In the drama of the moment, there is always a tendency to overstate its relevance long after the drama has faded.”

The strategist argued that such a miscalculation was made about the political effect of the 1993 vote on the North American Free Trade Agreement. Despite predictions of dire electoral consequences for those backing the accord, it was not seen as a major factor in the outcome of the 1994 election.

But Democrats said that the impeachment vote is of far greater significance than NAFTA and likely will be remembered for years to come. They noted that other elections have been swayed by controversies that brewed far in advance of an election.

For instance, many Democrats paid a price in the 1994 election for their 1993 votes on a deficit reduction bill that included tax increases. And in the 1996 elections, Republicans suffered as a result of the impasse that briefly shut down the government a year before.

“You can’t forget the most extraordinary political action of this century,” Art Torres, chairman of the California Democratic Party, said of the impeachment vote. He predicted that it would give Democrats a powerful issue to use in 2000 against GOP moderates Bilbray, Tom Campbell of San Jose and Stephen Horn of Long Beach.

Democrats said that, at the least, impeachment has had an immediate effect in mobilizing angry members of their party and encouraging candidates who might not otherwise be willing to take on an incumbent.

Judith Hope, Democratic Party chairwoman in New York, said that she has heard from a prospective candidate she believes could run a strong race against Rep. Rick Lazio (R-N.Y.). The incumbent is one of several suburban Republicans targeted by New York Democrats for defeat in two years as a result of their impeachment votes.

Sallick, the Democrats’ House campaign committee spokesman, said: “The most important thing is not necessarily what [impeachment] is going to mean in November 2000, but what it means in terms of recruiting candidates. There are going to be a lot more Democrats who are going to feel energized and emboldened to run for Congress than might have been otherwise.”

There is even a small chance that natural attrition will tip the House back into the Democratic camp during the two-year run of the Congress that takes office next month, although that would require that at least six Republicans resign or die and be replaced by Democrats. Nine vacancies occurred altogether in the Congress that just adjourned after impeaching Clinton, but only one of the special elections resulted in a party shift.

Times staff writers Marc Lacey and Ronald Brownstein contributed to this story.