Los Angeles Homicides Plunge to 28-Year Low

Far outpacing national trends, homicides in Los Angeles this year have dropped to the lowest level in almost three decades, according to preliminary police statistics.

The dramatic drop marks the sixth straight year that homicides have declined in the city. Los Angeles Police Department statistics show that homicides have plummeted about 27% from last year, when slayings also dropped significantly.

“It’s a rather amazing decline,” said Eric H. Monkkonen, a professor of policy studies and history at UCLA.

The downward spiral in Los Angeles exceeds nationwide trends, which show homicides declining about 8% through the first six months of 1998.

“Obviously, we’re very pleased with the reduction of homicides in the city,” said Cmdr. David J. Kalish, the LAPD’s spokesman. “But we must always remember that even one murder is one too many.”

Fewer homicides have meant more time for detectives to focus on investigating and solving murder cases, officials said. In 1992, when slayings hit a record in the city, the so-called “clearance” rate for solving homicides was 58%. Last year, the clearance rate was 71%. LAPD officials predict that the rate will be even higher this year.

As of Dec. 28, there had been 414 homicides in the city, LAPD records show. The last time there were fewer homicides was in 1970, when 394 people were killed.

In areas patrolled by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, homicides had dropped 5% this year as of November, to 244 from 257 in the same period last year, according to the department’s most recent statistics.

UCLA’s Monkkonen says the statistics are even more striking when measured against the city’s population, which has grown according to some estimates by as many as 1 million people over the past three decades.

According to his research, about 11 people were slain this year for every 100,000 people in the city. The last time the ratio was that low was in 1967. In 1992, when a record number of homicides--1,092--occurred in the city, the rate was about 31 slayings for every 100,000 people. LAPD statistics do not include “justifiable homicides,” such as incidents of self-defense or cases in which a police officer lawfully kills a suspect.

Law enforcement experts attribute the steady decrease in homicides and other violent crime locally and nationally to a number of factors, including a stronger economy, stabilization of the lucrative and often deadly drug trade, stiffer sentencing laws, improved policing tactics, periodic truces among violent street gangs, gun control efforts and an overall decrease in the number of young adults in the age groups most likely to commit crimes.

LAPD officials also note that the police force has grown by 2,000 officers since 1992, which means more officers are patrolling the streets.

Additionally, academics say there has been a proliferation of anti-violence programs, which may have--at least in a small way--helped.

It is clear, however, that no single factor accounts for such a precipitous drop.

“Everyone of us who wears a badge and gun is searching for answers for why and how this has occurred,” said Palos Verdes Estates Police Chief Timm Browne, spokesman for the California Peace Officers Assn.

“There isn’t anyone out there who calls himself a true professional who isn’t thankful,” said Browne, whose city has not had a homicide this year.

Said Monkkonen: “Do we think it is going to go down next year? Yes, we do. The tricky thing is figuring out when it will go back up and why.”

He compared violence to a contagious disease that spreads faster and faster. But, he added, a decrease in violence works the same way: When crime starts dropping, the decline gains momentum, just as it does when crime goes up.

Whatever the decline’s causes, LAPD officials are confident of at least one effect--an increase in the number of cases solved.

In the early 1990s, workloads for detectives were so heavy that they had no realistic hope of thoroughly investigating every homicide. The situation was so bad in 1995 that FBI officials came in to help detectives at the LAPD’s South Bureau.

A 1996 study by The Times showed that only a third of all homicide cases in the county during a five-year period starting in 1990 ended with a conviction for murder or manslaughter.

Today, detectives have enough time to work on unsolved cases from the past.

“We can do a much better job when we have smaller caseloads,” said Lt. John Dunkin, who supervises homicide detectives in the South Bureau. “In the past, with the sheer weight of the caseloads, you couldn’t spend the amount of time you wanted on each case.”

He said that in 1992, two-person detective teams would work on 20 or more homicides a year. Now, such teams are assigned five or six cases a year.

“In next year’s budget, it’s clear we can cut back on the yellow tape and chalk,” said one optimistic city official, referring to the materials that officers use to seal off a crime scene and to mark the position of a victim’s body.

In addition to homicides, violent crimes such as rapes, robberies and assaults have dropped significantly. LAPD records show that overall crime in the city, as of Dec. 26, has decreased 12.6% compared to last year.

Despite the declining crime rates, several measures of police productivity, such as field interviews, have increased or remained about the same compared to last year. Police response times have improved 1.4% to an average of 6.8 minutes per call. Field interviews have jumped 3.9%. Arrests, however, have dropped 2.2% this year.

The bad news for police is that although it has been safer for city residents over the past six years, the same cannot be said for law enforcement officers.

A report released Tuesday by the Washington, D.C.-based National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial shows that police deaths have increased more than 20% since 1992.

And, for the fifth straight year, California was the deadliest state in the nation for law enforcement, with 17 police fatalities. At the LAPD, three officers were killed in the line of duty this year.

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Homicides in U.S. Cities

Homicide rates have been falling in the city of Los Angeles and nationwide. The following charts show homicides in Los Angeles from 1989-98 and year-to-date homicides for 1998 and total homicides for 1997 for several major U.S. cities.

City of L.A. Homicides

Dec. 28, 1998: 414

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Estimated 1997 Estimated 1998 1998 rate per 100,000 rate per 100,000 City Year-To-Date* inhabitants inhabitants Los Angeles 414 569 15.5 11.2 New York 616 754 10.2 N/A Chicago 695 759 28.3 N/A Atlanta 146 150 37.3 N/A Dallas 222** 202 19.4 N/A Denver 56 72 14.4 N/A Houston 229** 254 14.7 N/A Miami 94 103 26.6 N/A Sacramento 33 44 11.6 8.4 San Diego 51 67 5.7 4.2 San Francisco 63 59 7.8 7.9

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Note: 1998 preliminary data; rates per 100,000 inhabitants are based on 1997 and 1998 population estimates

* through Dec. 28, 1998.

** through Nov. 30, 1998.

Sources: Los Angeles Police Department, California Department of Finance’s city/county population estimates, city police departments, Rand McNally Commercial Atlas.

Researched by NONA YATES / Los Angeles Times