The Calm Before Another Storm

Storm-weary emergency workers got a break Wednesday as sunny skies prevailed across Orange County, but the respite may be short-lived with light showers expected today and followed by intense drenchings Friday and Sunday.

None of the storm activity now bearing down on Orange County appears as powerful as the rain that soaked the area Tuesday, but its arrival will continue to mean hazardous high tides for beach cities, forecasters say.

“The storms are like spokes on a wheel, and they have really churned up the surf, so there will be some dangerous, surging conditions, especially Friday,” said Wes Etheredge, a meteorologist for WeatherData, which provides forecasts for The Times.

A heavy surf advisory was still in effect Wednesday and extended through Friday, according to National Weather Service officials, who predict that although the surf will subside somewhat today, it will increase again Friday morning.

Friday’s storm will probably reserve its most powerful rains and winds for Northern California--which was badly battered Tuesday, with emergencies declared in 14 counties--but local crews will continue to keep their eye on the area’s vulnerable canyons and coastlines.

A “row of storms” is roiling in the Pacific Ocean, and the one expected Friday will probably be followed by another torrent on Sunday, said Bill Reiter, director of the county’s storm center.

Reiter’s staff plans to assemble today to size up and make “attack plans” for the weekend drenchings, but they already have an eye to next week too.

“There are three or four more storms out there, and there’s a major one moving out of Japan now that we might get” hit with, Reiter said. “It looks like we’ll get a pretty good drenching.”

Looking at the onslaught ahead, Reiter warned that the worst may be ahead.

“I’m not going to run and hide now, but maybe later,” he joked. On Wednesday, at least, the warm but windy weather gave Reiter and other officials a welcome breather after a relentless schedule.

“We’ve really been taking a pounding, with people working 12-hour days for a week and in intense conditions, so it’s nice,” Orange County Fire Authority Capt. Scott Brown said. “We have people that can use the rest.”

The calm meant enough time to thoroughly clean and repair bulldozers that have toiled in abrasive sand and saltwater to maintain an 18-foot sand berm protecting Seal Beach, Brown said.

Throughout the county, especially in coastal cities, Wednesday was a time to take stock of damage left in the wake of a week’s worth of rain, wind and surf--and for the most part, the county weathered the storms better than expected, officials said.

In South County, San Clemente lifeguards will be cutting off several rotted pilings from the city’s wooden pier. Last Friday’s storm knocked out several crossbeams, and on Tuesday, old timber that already was due for replacement started to damage a metal bracing.

“More battering can cause the upper loose ends to knock the bracing out, and it could damage other parts of the pier,” lifeguard Steve Lashbrook said.

At Capistrano Shores, an enclave of 90 oceanfront mobile homes in San Clemente, the imposing surf threatened, but residents Wednesday joined a chorus of others who said the danger was far less than advertised.

“After the big waves, the rain was nothing.” resident Gerda Louch said, adding that she and her neighbors suffered no substantive damage. “Everybody boarded up their front windows.”

Cities farther north that usually flood, such as Laguna Beach, fared well on Tuesday, the worst of the storm days. A city rain gauge recorded only 1.6 inches of rain at 4 p.m. Tuesday, said Terry Brandt, director of municipal services.

“We were lucky, the rain was consistent throughout the day with very little heavy spurts,” Brandt said.

However, lifeguards are concerned about the loss of tons of sand by the scouring action from powerful ocean waves.

“We’re not in any imminent danger,” said Mark Klosterman, Laguna Beach lifeguard supervisor. “But all the sand has gone from Laguna Beach’s coves. In some areas, as much as 12 feet of beach is gone.”

Winter storms traditionally carve away the sand until summer, when big south swells tend to return it, Klosterman said. A combination of high tides and big waves has transformed some stretches of Laguna beaches into stretches of rock, leaving little protection for the city’s boardwalk and private homes.

“If we get some bigger surf again, say like 12 feet high, we’ll start to have some concerns about property damage,” Klosterman said. “Especially if we have any storms correlating with high tides such as [what] we have coming up on Feb. 7.”

Inland, a different eroding effect is at work in areas such as Baker Canyon, where pelting rain clawed at ground still blackened and weak from an October wildfire. Authorities had worried that the fragile slopes would slide and create road hazards, but Brown said the area fared well and had no major problems.

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Extended Forecast

The oncoming cold front is starting to look a lot like Tuesday’s storm. What forecasters don’t know is whether the system will split, sending part of the storm north and the other half into San Diego. But forecasters are calling for more heavy rains Friday:

Today: Morning clouds with light showers, partial clearing by afternoon

Friday: Heavy rains possible

Saturday: Partly cloudy with occasional showers, clearing by early evening

Storm Split

During El Nino conditions, systems tend to split more often as they are drawn toward a strong southern jet stream. This split worked in Orange County’s favor Tuesday, as heavier storm conditions headed away from county lines. What happened:

1. Solid storm front approaches coast

2. Jet stream draws energy of front south, splitting storm into two systems

Source: WeatherData Inc.; Researched by APRIL JACKSON/Los Angeles Times