Legislative Analyst Questions Wilson Budget

Kicking off debate over Gov. Pete Wilson’s proposed $73-billion budget, Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill on Wednesday undercut Wilson’s call to extend the school year by seven days, saying that there is no proof students’ performance would improve.

In an analysis of Wilson’s proposed 1998-99 budget prepared for the Legislature, Hill described California’s economy as the strongest in a decade. As a result, state coffers will be flush as legislators and the governor negotiate the new spending plan this spring and summer.

Hill, citing stronger than expected tax receipts in recent months, said the governor has underestimated revenue by more than $1 billion, giving legislators more money to spend this year than they had anticipated.

Adding to the potential windfall, Hill said, Wilson overestimated the cost of various programs by as much as $300 million, and that legislators could spend that money as well.

What’s more, Hill concluded that the governor has proposed spending $700 million more than is needed for a welfare program designed to help recipients find work, although federal restrictions require that the money remain in the welfare budget.

The flow of cash from taxes is expected to fuel talk of a tax cut, especially as elections near.

On Wednesday, Assemblyman Tom McClintock (R-Northridge) proposed cutting vehicle registration costs by $3 billion, saying the car tax costs families an average of $240 a year.

Hill said that while legislators may consider a tax cut--for the second consecutive year--at least some of the $1 billion in unanticipated tax revenue should be spent on construction projects instead of financing them with bonds on which the state must pay interest.

In one of the legislative analyst office’s more controversial findings, Hill cautioned against Wilson’s $350-million plan to extend the school year for all the state’s 5.5 million students in kindergarten through high school.

The Wilson administration proposal has garnered significant support from legislators. Sen. Steve Peace (D-El Cajon) successfully pushed to add one day to class time as part of last year’s budget deal.

Wilson wants to build on last year’s deal by increasing the school year to 180 days from the current 173 days, at a cost to the state of $50 million per day. Wilson’s aides describe the proposal as a centerpiece of the governor’s $30-billion education spending plan.

“[Hill’s] comment leaves us scratching our heads,” Wilson spokesman Sean Walsh said. “More time in the classroom will benefit our kids.”

Hill acknowledged that “intuitively, it is appealing to lengthen the school year.” But she said one state, Indiana, abandoned a longer school year after finding that student performance did not improve.

“The literature and research is very mixed,” Hill said. “What is out there says that, rather than focusing as much on time, focus on quality.”

She recommended that Wilson and the Legislature establish a demonstration program to see if adding more days improves students’ performance. Hill said another way of improving performance might be to give local schools more control over how they spend money.

Public school lobbyists have not embraced the longer school year, contending that $50 million a day does not cover all the costs. They note that teachers, who now receive training during what otherwise would be class time, would be required under Wilson’s plan to receive training when school is out.

The annual report from the legislative analyst’s office--an independent agency--is a key source of information for legislators as they begin shaping the budget. But although legislators rely on it, the final spending plan is often driven more by the wants of the governor and legislators, and last-minute deals they strike.

The legislative analyst also concluded, among other findings:

* Wilson is calling for too much money for another education proposal--providing tax-funded vouchers to 15,000 students at the state’s worst schools so they could attend private schools or other public schools. Wilson places the cost at $39 million. Hill suggested a pared-down plan costing $2 million to see if the concept works.

* The state’s emergency budget reserve should be doubled to at least $600 million.

* Legislators should reject the proposal to spend $10 million to plan a 10th University of California campus, in Merced, until university officials specify how the money will be spent.

* The state Department of Mental Health needs to produce a plan for housing the growing numbers of mentally ill people who are convicted of crimes.

* The California Environmental Protection Agency, an agency created during the Wilson administration, has failed to meet one of its prime goals--adequately assessing public health risks posed by various pollutants, including pesticides used in agriculture.

Walsh scoffed at the criticism, saying, “We have one of the top environmental watchdog entities in the country, and they are constantly producing the best science in the nation.”