It May Be a Night to Remember

If this year’s Oscar race were a movie--and given how wide open many categories are, it might make a good one--you could call it “The Revenge of the Studios.”

After all the fuss made last year about how independent productions had hijacked the hearts and minds of academy voters, mainstream Hollywood is back with a vengeance, at least in the best picture category. With ballots going into the mail in five days, Oscar prognosticators have made “Titanic”--the quintessential studio film, so expensive it took two of the behemoths to finance it--the likeliest film to be nominated in that category and the current favorite in the final race as well.

Several factors are in play here, including the desire of frustrated mainstream Hollywood to nominate one of its own and the extent to which it helps to have two studios with a vested interest in the film’s success garnering votes. Giving the film a cross-gender appeal (writer-director James Cameron has been quoted calling it a “$190-million chick flick”) also helps, as is its ability to baldly counterfeit Golden Age filmmaking for a membership eager to a fault for the return of the good old days.

Two other films are also almost sure things for best picture nominations. A close-to-unprecedented sweep of critical awards will likely earn “L.A. Confidential” a place in the Big Five, and the, yes, goodwill engendered by “Good Will Hunting” should likewise stand it in good stead.

The last two slots are more of a question mark. “Amistad” is a likely choice, though the fuss stirred up over plagiarism charges has made it less of a sure thing than it might have been both here and in the screenwriting category. And though reaction to the film has not been uniform, James L. Brooks’ adventurous “As Good as It Gets” is also a strong contender. “Wag the Dog’s” Hollywood context might get it some votes, but despite numerous virtues both “The Sweet Hereafter” and “Boogie Nights” are probably too demanding for academy tastes.

If voters’ traditional passion for things British holds true, “The Wings of the Dove,” “Mrs. Brown” and the late-appearing “The Boxer” also have a distant shot. The most intriguing question mark of the contest is also British: the crowd-pleasing “The Full Monty.” If it manages to beat the odds and get nominated, a scenario that looks increasingly possible, it could prove to be a potent rallying point in the final balloting for those who want to sink “Titanic” all over again.

The directors branch, always difficult to predict, is more opaque than usual this year, with the closest to a sure thing being “L.A. Confidential’s” Curtis Hanson. Cameron is highly likely for “Titanic,” but his lack of what might be called a winning personality could cost him votes.

The remaining three slots will be fought over by veteran directors with strong followings: Brooks (“As Good as It Gets”), Barry Levinson (“Wag the Dog”), Martin Scorsese (“Kundun”), Steven Spielberg (“Amistad”) and even Woody Allen (“Deconstructing Harry”). Jim Sheridan of “The Boxer” has been a branch favorite in the past, and the directors might be of a mind to recognize what Atom Egoyan accomplished in “The Sweet Hereafter,” but Paul Thomas Anderson of “Boogie Nights” is probably too young to be considered.

The best actor category looks to be the most competitive one of the entire race, with far too many deserving candidates for its five spaces. Three contestants do look to be sure things at this point: Robert Duvall for a career-defining performance in “The Apostle,” Jack Nicholson as good as he gets in “As Good as It Gets” and an irresistible Matt Damon as “Good Will Hunting.”

Likeliest to get the last two positions are a pair of veterans--Peter Fonda in “Ulee’s Gold” and Al Pacino in “Donnie Brasco”--but they will be pressed by “Amistad” newcomer Djimon Hounsou, “The Sweet Hereafter’s” Ian Holm, possibly “Wag the Dog’s” Dustin Hoffman and, if “Titanic” fever runs deep enough, Leonardo DiCaprio. Though their performances are worthy, the guys from “L.A. Confidential”--Kevin Spacey, Russell Crowe and Guy Pearce--are too equally matched for one to break out in this kind of a group.

The choices in the best actress category are slimmer, and not surprisingly British performers lead the way. Both Judi Dench in the warmly received “Mrs. Brown” and Helena Bonham Carter doing the best work of her career in “The Wings of the Dove” are the top choices, followed by “Titanic’s” Kate Winslet.

Among the Americans, academy favorite Jodie Foster can never be discounted, though “Contact” came out in the distant summer. The popular Helen Hunt has a strong chance for “As Good as It Gets,” and a Golden Globe nomination may have reminded voters how powerful Jessica Lange was in “A Thousand Acres.” And those with long memories will be delighted to see Julie Christie back in top form in “Afterglow.”

In the supporting categories, the picture seems clearer among the men, where the five likely nominees are as follows: academy favorite Anthony Hopkins for his showy turn in “Amistad,” returning veteran Burt Reynolds in “Boogie Nights,” softest-shoulder-to-cry-on Robin Williams in “Good Will Hunting,” picture-pilfering Rupert Everett in “My Best Friend’s Wedding” and the always reliable Spacey in “L.A. Confidential.” Possible to break in if anyone falters are Greg Kinnear in “As Good as It Gets” and the very busy Jon Voight, more likely for “John Grisham’s The Rainmaker” than “Anaconda,” but you never know for sure.

For supporting actress, the surest nominee is also the oldest: “Titanic’s” Gloria Stuart. Right behind her should be Joan Cusack for “In & Out,” Julianne Moore, impressive as always in “Boogie Nights,” and probably Sigourney Weaver, whose amusing turn in “Alien Resurrection” should help get her a nomination for “The Ice Storm.” The last slot could go to anyone from Kim Basinger in “L.A. Confidential” to Farrah Fawcett in “The Apostle” to two relative youngsters, Sarah Polley in “The Sweet Hereafter” and Christina Ricci in “The Ice Storm.”

As far as the screenplay Oscars are concerned, the greatest competition exists in the adapted category. “L.A. Confidential” and “The Sweet Hereafter” should be sure things, while other strong contenders are “Wag the Dog,” “Donnie Brasco,” “Wings of the Dove” and maybe even the chilly “The Ice Storm.”

Among originals, it’s going to be difficult to ignore “As Good as It Gets,” and the often venturesome writers might come up with titles the other branches aren’t as strong on: “Deconstructing Harry,” “Boogie Nights,” “The Apostle,” maybe even “The Full Monty,” “Waiting for Guffman” and “Grosse Point Blank.” And though it would be nice to say it’s impossible, a flood tide of support for “Good Will Hunting” and even “Titanic” could lead to nominations here as well.