Netanyahu Wins First Test After Coalition Frays

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won a quick, decisive victory Monday as the parliament approved his weakened government’s 1998 budget by a comfortable margin.

The 58-52 vote--with one abstention and nine absences--came just a day after Foreign Minister David Levy and his Gesher Party abruptly quit Netanyahu’s eight-party coalition government, leaving it with a fragile, one-seat majority in the parliament, or Knesset.

But Netanyahu then scrambled to shore up support from remaining coalition members and leaders of his Likud Party in a flurry of meetings Sunday night and Monday.

The prime minister broke into a smile after the favorable vote for his $59-billion spending plan, saying later to Army Radio: “I’ve been eulogized at least 18 times in the past 18 months, and you see I’m still here. We passed the budget, and we’re on our way.”

Still, Netanyahu must quickly confront other stern tests--any of which analysts say could bring down the government.

Netanyahu, for example, is to meet Jan. 20 in Washington with President Clinton, who has asked the Israeli leader to bring with him a detailed plan for carrying out what the Americans term a “credible” transfer of more West Bank land to the Palestinians as called for in the Oslo peace accords.

U.S. special envoy Dennis B. Ross is to arrive in the Mideast today to lay the groundwork for Clinton’s separate meetings with Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat.

Even before Levy denounced the Netanyahu government and split with it because he said it has ignored the problems of the poor and unemployed, the core of the Gesher constituency, the coalition had been unable to agree on how much land Israel should give the Palestinians in the next staged withdrawal.

But with the resignation of Levy, a leading moderate, due to take effect today, Netanyahu’s coalition is now weighted toward parties that oppose the West Bank withdrawal and have threatened to topple the government if it is implemented.

Palestinian leaders expressed concern Monday that Levy’s departure could damage U.S.-led efforts to revive peace talks, which have been stalled since March.

“Mr. Netanyahu will now lean harder to the right and will use this as a pretext to continue his policy of noncompliance with the [peace] agreements,” said Saeb Erekat, the Palestinians’ chief negotiator.

Netanyahu, though, said after his Monday success: “We’ve passed the budget, and we are now embarking on a new diplomatic path because the hard part is behind us. The possibilities of starting a step that will lead to a permanent peace arrangement [with the Palestinians] are before us.”

The Israeli leader also faces another struggle in coming weeks over the contentious issue of Jewish conversion.

Several small, ultra-Orthodox parties in his coalition say they are determined to pass controversial legislation that would formalize an existing Orthodox monopoly here on religious affairs--if a government-appointed committee fails to reach a compromise on the issue by the end of the month.

The difficulties ahead, and Netanyahu’s narrow parliamentary majority, prompted feverish speculation Monday in Israel among political analysts, journalists and the public about how long the government can last, with many predicting elections before the year is out.

“It’s really too shaky,” Avraham Diskin, a political science professor at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University, said of the prime minister’s grip. “Any small party in the coalition can get angry over any issue and cause the government to collapse.”

Diskin said he believes that ideological gulfs between coalition members--the centrist Third Way, for example, and the conservative National Religious Party--will break it apart before long.

Others, though, said Monday that the new, streamlined coalition was a “small but smart” grouping that would prove more stable than before.

Still, even some of Netanyahu’s political allies predicted problems ahead. Eliahu Ben-Elissar, Israel’s ambassador to the United States, said his government will have trouble functioning with such a narrow majority. “I believe that it will be difficult for the coalition to survive,” he said.

Still other commentators, though, pointed to Netanyahu’s history of political survival in 18 1/2 months in office and said his government could stay afloat for some time to come. “You can lose a lot of money betting against Bibi,” a U.S. diplomat said, referring to the prime minister by his popular nickname and asserting that he would manage to serve out his 4-year term.

Mark Heller, political scientist at Tel Aviv University, said he expected Netanyahu to try to hold his coalition together on the issue of an Israeli troop redeployment by casting it in terms that make it impossible for the Palestinians to accept or for opponents of it within the coalition to reject.

“He will impose some very tough conditions that will at least buy him some time,” Heller said. “Then, if early elections are held, it puts him in the best possible position for his constituents, showing that he’s not opposed to the peace process but is also standing up for Israeli security.”

Meanwhile, the opposition Labor Party has said it will seek a no-confidence vote against the government next week; 61 votes in favor of such a motion could bring down the government and force elections for prime minister and parliament within 60 days. With 80 votes, legislators could retain their seats and force the prime minister alone to stand for election.

But many politicians and commentators said Monday that they expected Netanyahu to call for elections himself if he believes that he’s in danger of losing a no-confidence vote.