Filing an Efficient, Safe Flight Plan for Airport at El Toro

The flickering red lines and bright green projectiles look like elements of the latest hand-held video game.

But the images, part of a computer model that attempts to simulate air traffic under different scenarios, actually represent the runways and taxiing jets at a fully operational airport. The simulations will play a central role over the next few months in the development of a commercial airport at El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, as county officials turn to such computer models to test the safety and efficiency of different aviation proposals for the base.

On Tuesday, the county released the results of a preliminary simulation that indicate that commercial aircraft could use the El Toro base safely, and without compromising operations at nearby John Wayne Airport.

The study by SABRE Technology Solutions marks only a starting point in the county’s effort to design a workable aviation plan, and to prove to skeptical neighbors that converting El Toro into a commercial airport can be completed without placing them in peril.

Over the next few months, Fort Worth-based SABRE will create more detailed computer simulations for four separate airport plans being developed by the county to determine the strengths and weaknesses of each.

The plans could range from developing El Toro into a international airport while reducing John Wayne to a general-aviation facility, to keeping John Wayne at present capacity and converting El Toro into an air-cargo facility.

The computer modeling takes into account Federal Aviation Administration safety regulations as well as runway lengths, weather conditions, aircraft types and dozens of other factors in determining the capacity of a given airport.

“The simulations are really at the heart of the matter,” said Courtney Wiercioch, manager of El Toro planning for the county. “It’s the crucial element of the planning.”

Airport opponents agreed but insist that the simulations will only be meaningful if they go into much greater detail than the models released Tuesday, which they said were too general.

“This might be a step, but it’s not the giant leap South County residents expect before they believe that this is a safe and viable operation,” said Supervisor Thomas W. Wilson.

The preliminary models released Tuesday found that El Toro could safely handle a substantial number of commercial flights under the runway configuration proposed by the county without infringing on John Wayne operations.

SABRE used an FAA-validated program that simulates aircraft movement in the air space and on the airfields. It has been used in development of other two-airport areas including Dallas-Fort Worth International and Dallas Love Field.

The Board of Supervisors in 1996 approved preliminary airport plans that called for 70% of all flights to take off and land on an east-west runway that some opponents and airline pilots consider potentially dangerous. It also directed county staff to draw up final plans that keep John Wayne Airport operating in concert with the new airport.

The consultants reached their preliminary conclusions after separate reviews of flight, airspace and runway data at John Wayne and El Toro. The next step will be simulating how the two airports would interact as one “system”--as the two Dallas airports operate.

Belinda G. Hargrove, senior director of SABRE, said that seeing how the two airports interact will help planners decide the right mix of flights for each facility and ultimately the kind of airport that is built at El Toro.

The preliminary El Toro plan called for as many as 600 takeoffs a day. Hargrove said her initial findings showed that the base could handle that maximum number of flights while complying with all federal regulations. But Wiercioch and others stressed that no decision has been made about the size or capacity of the airport.

Hargrove said that once the county has developed the four airport plans, she will be able to add information about the types of aircraft being used, their payload capacities and more detailed data about flight paths.

While the more intensive study could conceivably detect major problems, “I don’t see any showstoppers,” she added.

But airport opponents like Wilson and Supervisor Todd Spitzer are skeptical.

Wilson said future models need to take into account the possibility that planes bound for either airport need to circle because of bad weather.

“They still have a long way to go to convince me,” Wilson added. “They can’t paint this with a broad brush. They need to get into specific issues.”

He also said far more scrutiny is needed on the proposed El Toro runways. Two major airline pilots’ unions have expressed doubts about the east-west runway, saying planes taking off would be heading directly toward a mountainous area that could present safety risks.

Other supervisors said they were impressed by the presentation.

“I think this is the first professional presentation like this that dispels some concerns,” said Supervisor William G. Steiner. “I felt reassured that John Wayne and El Toro would be compatible.”