As Feinstein Steps Aside, No Clear Favorite Emerges

With U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein lifting her giant shadow from the governor’s race, focus shifted Wednesday to the three remaining major contenders: Democrats Al Checchi and Gray Davis and Republican Dan Lungren.

Each entered the race with the same daunting liability, having little experience in a high-profile statewide race. Each has significant political problems. None is as well known, or as popular with voters, as Feinstein.

On the Democratic side, Feinstein’s decision Tuesday not to run for governor--despite the fact that she would have been the front-runner--led many to cast about for a new candidate. Coming at this late date in the primary campaign, that said volumes about their lack of confidence in the announced entrants.

State Sen. John Vasconcellos (D-Santa Clara) said Tuesday that he had decided in the previous few days not to run--but is reconsidering, given Feinstein’s withdrawal. He strongly hinted that he will make a run if former White House chief of staff and California congressman Leon Panetta does not.

Panetta said late Tuesday that he was considering the race. “I have some thinking to do,” he said. He did not return a telephone call Wednesday.

Vasconcellos said there is a “double vacuum” in the race--with none of the candidates evincing inspirational leadership and none representing Northern California, whose economic surge has powered the state’s comeback.

“I haven’t heard either one of them speak in those terms so far,” he said of Davis and Checchi. “And the pandering stuff that I’ve been hearing discourages me.” He cited their hard-line positions on the death penalty, among others.

There were rumblings, as well, of encouraging a moderate Democratic woman, in the Feinstein mold, to enter the race. “Democratic women candidates have a significant advantage in the primary,” said one Democratic strategist, because women dominate the party at the polls.

But even those Democrats touting new candidates acknowledged that any potential new entrants have the same basic problem as the announced ones--few Californians have a clue who they are, and what the voters might find out could be troublesome. The only saving grace for Democrats is that the same can be said of the lone major Republican candidate, Lungren.

“Voters don’t have anyone they’re particularly well-acquainted with who is running for governor,” said Darry Sragow, a strategist for businessman and former Northwest Airlines chief Checchi.

Feinstein herself telegraphed her dissatisfaction with the current field when she pointedly declined Tuesday to endorse either Davis or Checchi or even to promise the ritual endorsement of the party’s ultimate nominee.

“If she was that excited about Checchi or Davis, she would have made this decision last summer,” said one Republican consultant.

The stature gap between Feinstein and everyone else in the race was abundantly clear in an October poll by The Times. All but 11% of Californians said they knew enough about the senator to have an impression about her.

In contrast, more than three times as many--38%--said they didn’t know enough about Lungren, and 42% didn’t know Davis. Vasconcellos was unknown by 83% and Checchi by 90%--although that was before the latter’s massive advertising campaign.

A year earlier, in a previous Times poll, 59% of California registered voters said they did not know enough about Panetta to form an impression.

To be sure, not all those who knew Feinstein supported her--but she was broadly acknowledged as the candidate that both Democrats and the Republican already in the race feared the most. And without her presence, those handicapping the race were split on their predictions.

To some Democrats, Davis now looms as the strongest candidate--capable, as the only veteran politician in the race, to consolidate traditional Democratic constituencies of labor, women and teachers to cobble together a victory.

“If Leon doesn’t get in, Gray has an opportunity to shore up institutional support, which Dianne had neutralized,” said Bill Carrick, Feinstein’s longtime campaign strategist.

Others, however, said the malaise that has greeted Davis’ effort so far would not change much. Labor, they pointed out, is preoccupied with fighting an initiative that would curb its ability to collect political contributions.

“Before yesterday, Gray was toast. And today he’s toast,” said one prominent Democrat who declined to speak for attribution. The Democrat cited labor’s preoccupation, Davis’ ties to former Gov. Edmund G. “Jerry” Brown Jr., for whom he served as chief of staff, and his reserved personality.

Checchi, on the other hand, has attracted attention because he is a new face in the political world, and many Democrats now see him as the front-runner. But his fresh presence engenders fear as well as excitement. Unlike Davis’ or Lungren’s, his background has not been vetted by even the smallest of campaigns, since he is making his first bid for any sort of office.

“Checchi is the stronger of the remaining Democratic candidates partly because of his resources and partly because even when he is talking about big-spending programs, I think he will be given a presumption that he is not a big-spending liberal,” said the Democrat, citing Checchi’s business background.

And on the other hand? “The downside is that as we’ve seen repeatedly, you never quite know whether there is some very large vulnerability in his background.”

What that means, most political figures believe, is Democrats are heading into a nasty primary, as one-on-one primaries tend to be.

Panetta’s entrance could change that, but his potential candidacy is fraught with dangers, as Wednesday’s national events showed. A White House intern, whose alleged relationship with President Clinton is the subject of investigation, worked in Panetta’s office. And that scandal emerged just as the one about campaign donations was dying out--a scandal also involving Panetta in his role as chief of staff.

Panetta also has few personal resources to throw into a campaign--and those he would receive from donors would be highly scrutinized because of the White House fund-raising scandals.

All told, the turn of events delighted Republicans.

“They’re left with a choice between Jerry Brown’s chief of staff, Bill Clinton’s Lincoln Bedroom concierge and the ego that ate Northwest Airlines,” said Republican consultant Dan Schnur.

Lungren stood to gain support after Feinstein’s withdrawal because he will not be running against an established candidate with vast statewide experience. Yet even some Republicans are worried that his campaign is shaky when it comes to a high-profile race.

Many Democrats believe that Lungren is underestimated and that efforts to portray him as an extremist will backfire when voters see his earnest, middle-class presence. He is, however, on the wrong side of California voters on issues such as guns--he has diffidently enforced the state ban on assault weapons--and abortion, which he opposes.

If California history repeats itself, the two who emerge as Republican and Democratic nominees will wage a tight race come November. In the last three governor’s races in which there was no incumbent running--a scenario like that of this year, when term limits will oust Pete Wilson--the biggest margin of victory has been 3%.

“The history of gubernatorial elections in our state is that more often than not, they’re kind of 50-50 deals, particularly when there’s no incumbent,” said political consultant Richard Ross.

* STATURE IN THE SENATE: For Feinstein it’s still a club, but now she’s a member. A3