Tobacco Bill Is ‘Dead in the Water,’ Lott Claims

Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott declared Sunday that comprehensive tobacco control legislation, which appeared to command majority support in theory but not in its specifics, is “dead in the water” and may never come to a final vote.

Although the bill had seemed on the road to Senate approval as recently as last month, Lott (R-Miss.) and his conservative Republican colleagues were never comfortable with its central elements: a big hike in tobacco taxes and increased government regulation of cigarette manufacturers.

“Will there be a vote on final passage? Not very likely,” Lott said on CNN’s “Late Edition.” “At this point, it’s dead in the water, and there may never be a vote on the [tobacco] bill. The problem is . . . it’s the usual addiction in Washington to taxes and spending. This has gone way beyond trying to do something about teenage smoking.”

For several months, the tobacco industry has made those concerns the central focus of an aggressive television, telephone and direct mail campaign aimed at persuading members of Congress to oppose the legislation.

Cigarette companies said they are heartened by Lott’s comments, although they are not sure whether his views truly signal the bill’s demise.

“The reality of what this legislation stands for has sunk in,” industry spokesman Scott Williams said. “It’s about taxes and expansion of government.”

Although the bill does include a large increase in cigarette taxes--$1.10 a pack over five years--the revenue they generate is to be spent mainly on programs for which there is broad public support: smoking cessation and prevention; reimbursements to states for the costs of treating people with smoking-related diseases, and subsidies for tobacco farmers adversely affected by a decline in smoking.

After much public criticism, the White House abandoned its plan to use new cigarette tax revenue to finance non-health programs such as education and child care.

Despite Lott’s blunt assessment, the bill’s supporters said they will continue their yearlong campaign to reverse nearly four decades of federal policy and rein in the tobacco industry.

Connecticut Atty. Gen. Richard Blumenthal, one of the five state attorneys general who negotiated a proposed $368.5-billion settlement with the industry last year, called Lott’s comments “a severe warning, but not the last rites” for the tobacco bill. Still, he said the situation is grave.

“I think we are facing a moment of truth,” Blumenthal said. “We may not see another opportunity like this for years to come.”

If national legislation goes down the drain, he said, “states may be pursuing our individual lawsuits come the fall.” The tobacco industry has agreed to pay $36 billion to settle suits filed against it by four states, but 36 other similar cases are pending.

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On Capitol Hill, an unusual political stalemate has developed: Senate Republicans are split almost down the middle over whether it is better to back a bill that would distance the party from the tobacco industry, or whether the proposed taxes and regulations are simply too antithetical to Republican principles for them to embrace.

Lott seems caught in the middle. His political base has always been GOP conservatives, and they oppose the bill. Yet with almost half of Senate Republicans supporting it and with an opportunity to put the tobacco debate behind the party forever, he had leaned toward pushing the legislation.

Now, as the Senate launches into its third week of debate on the bill and with conservatives far more vocal than moderates, Lott appears to be signaling to the White House and congressional Democrats that they must soften the measure or risk losing it altogether.

Key votes are expected this week on amendments, strongly supported by Republicans, that would reduce taxes and fund anti-drug programs. Lott and other Republicans who favor the legislation believe the amendments must pass for the bill to move forward.

Further complicating Lott’s position, his brother-in-law, Richard Scruggs, stands to make hundreds of millions of dollars in legal fees if the legislation passes. Scruggs, who lives on the same oceanfront boulevard as Lott in Pascagoula, Miss., is one of the primary private lawyers representing states who have sued the industry.

As a result, Lott initially recused himself from dealing with the issue. But as majority leader, he has found it difficult to extricate himself--especially because the issue has so divided his troops.

Despite assertions by Clinton administration officials that they still believe a bipartisan bill can pass if provisions are added to address Republican concerns, one White House official seemed to acknowledge the possibility that it might die.

“The choice that Sen. Lott and the other leaders of the Congress have, frankly, particularly the Republican leaders, is they are either going to have a bipartisan accomplishment, which is what the president prefers, or they’re going to have a partisan election year issue,” said presidential advisor Paul Begala, who also appeared on “Late Edition.”

“We’ll resolve this from the voters to see who’s on the side of big tobacco, and to see who’s on the side of our kids,” Begala said.

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The bill’s sponsor, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), remains optimistic about the legislation’s outcome, according to an aide. McCain has fought hard for passage even though he has been pilloried by some of his GOP senate colleagues for doing so.

“The senator believes we can get back on track and pass a bill, and he will keep working toward that end,” said John Raidt, staff director for the Senate Commerce Committee, which McCain chairs.

Community public health advocates, who have been the strongest voices for passage, are pushing congressional leaders to identify provisions that could be added to the bill to make Republicans more comfortable.

“If they work out a tax cut that is large enough to appease those who’ve been demanding it while small enough not to undermine the legislation’s public health goals . . . the tide could turn in favor of passage very quickly,” said Matthew Myers, general counsel for the National Center for Tobacco-Free Kids.

David A. Kessler, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration and a fierce industry critic, said the politics still favors passage of major tobacco-control legislation.

“The bottom line is the votes are overwhelmingly there to pass [the bill]. The cost for any member of stopping it--including the majority leader--would be enormous,” said Kessler, now dean of Yale Medical School.