Israel Weighs Pullout From S. Lebanon

Twenty years after the U.N. Security Council demanded that Israel pull all its troops out of southern Lebanon “forthwith,” the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be getting closer to doing just that.

In what could be a remarkable initiative by Netanyahu, one that would end a painful chapter in Israel’s recent history while burnishing his reputation as a peacemaker, Israel is discussing bringing back its troops without a formal diplomatic accord with the Lebanese government or its prime sponsor, Syria.

So far, however, Syria and Lebanon remain skeptical that Israel really intends to pull out of Lebanon. Their advice to Netanyahu is: just do it.

Infrastructure Minister Ariel Sharon, the former general who masterminded Israel’s 1982 invasion of central Lebanon, has now publicly joined the ranks of those advocating a pullback. He was expected to present his own plan to the Cabinet today for Israel to make a phased, unilateral withdrawal, according to the Maariv newspaper.

“We are ready, in stages, [while] monitoring the results, to carry out a withdrawal in Lebanon,” Sharon told Israel’s Channel 2 television Saturday.

But he warned that, if the withdrawal takes place, Israel will hold Lebanon’s government responsible for any future cross-border attacks by Hezbollah or other militia groups. He hinted that Israel would reserve the right to retaliate strongly if that happened.

Two weeks ago, Netanyahu announced for the first time that Israel is now willing to withdraw its troops based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 425--the March 19, 1978, directive telling Israel to leave Lebanon and to respect Lebanese borders and sovereignty. But Netanyahu’s offer was conditional: “If the Lebanese government cooperates with us in the establishment of appropriate security arrangements . . .”

According to government officials, Israel wants assurances that Lebanon’s regular army will fill the void left when Israel pulls out, not the Hezbollah Shiite militia, the main group opposing Israel’s 1,500 troops in Lebanon and the Southern Lebanese Army, a 2,500-member pro-Israeli militia.

Israel also apparently wants assurances that its SLA allies in southern Lebanon will not be harmed.

Lebanon and Syria so far are rejecting talks with Israel about any such arrangements, insisting that Resolution 425 means that Israel should pull out without conditions.

Israeli motives tend to be viewed skeptically by the two countries, and the initial reaction has been to dismiss the proposal as a propaganda gambit that Netanyahu has no intention of carrying out.

But the proposal has stirred interest among some Arab thinkers.

“What harm would there be in the Lebanese and Syrian governments trying to put the seriousness of the Israeli offer to the test?” wrote Kamaran Karadaghi in Friday’s Al Hayat, a Saudi-owned newspaper circulated throughout the Arab world.

Lebanon and Syria have long insisted that Israel follow Resolution 425. And in the past, Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has made public statements similar to what Israel is now proposing: that the Lebanese government would be in charge if Israeli troops left, which would remove the reason for a nongovernmental armed resistance to exist.

Uri Lubrani, Israel’s chief Lebanon negotiator, said in a telephone interview that Israel used to envision a withdrawal from Lebanon coming about through peace negotiations with Syria. But with peace talks with Syria having been stalled since January 1996, Israel is no longer insisting on that, he said.

Israel also has greater regard for the Beirut government’s ability to control the situation inside Lebanon, Lubrani said.

“In the past, we were absolutely convinced that the Lebanon army was incapable of ensuring stability,” he said. Now, it has been “beefed up.”

Adding to the diplomatic momentum, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan is traveling to Lebanon this week. There have been reports in both the Arab and Israeli media suggesting that he will bring ideas to bridge the gap between Israel on one side and Syria and Lebanon on the other.

One reported possibility would be for the U.N. peacekeeping force that is already in place to coordinate a smooth and orderly turnover to Lebanese government control after the Israelis leave.

French diplomats, meanwhile, have indicated privately that France might be willing to offer troops to help the Lebanese government fortify the border zone if Lebanon and Syria eventually agree to the Israeli proposal.

There have been several conversations in recent weeks between Israeli and French officials, and Ubrani said discussions are also ongoing with Washington.

The impetus for Israel’s new initiative appears to be growing public dissatisfaction with the country’s long-term presence in southern Lebanon in a dirty war that some consider to be Israel’s Vietnam.

Israeli troops entered Lebanon in 1978 to crush Palestine Liberation Organization guerrillas. Those guerrillas are gone, but the troops remain, now charged with deterring attacks on Israel’s northern towns and villages by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, which operates in Lebanon with Syrian consent.

Instead of hitting at northern Israel, the guerrillas have made Israeli soldiers inside Lebanon their focus.

Since 1985, about 200 Israeli soldiers have been killed in southern Lebanon. Thirty-nine died last year, the worst year for Israel so far. An additional 73 Israeli soldiers perished when two military helicopters collided en route to Lebanon.

On Saturday, a new all-religion military unit recently formed by Hezbollah said it had launched its first assault on Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, using machine guns and rockets to attack three Israeli positions. There were no casualties reported.

Lubrani said he is hopeful that Israel’s presence in southern Lebanon will end. The ideas still have to “ferment,” but the initiative is sincere, he said.

“I cannot say when it is going to happen. But I’m sure it is going to happen,” he said.

Lubrani recently published an open letter to Lebanese Foreign Minister Faris Bouez in an Arab weekly newspaper urging Lebanon to discuss security arrangements so that a withdrawal can take place.

“Will Lebanon persist in ignoring the wishes of the Lebanese people, or will it find a way to take advantage of this opportunity?” he wrote.